Opportunity to make full use of demographic advantage

The aim of the state is to develop a socialist-oriented and prosperous economy by making the economy of Nepal independent, independent and progressive. Respecting the spirit of the Constitution of Nepal, the Government of Nepal in the year 2075 long-term thinking V.S. 2100 has been fixed. The goal is to upgrade Nepal from a least developed country to a developing country by 2082 and to reach a middle income country by 2087 by achieving sustainable development goals. What is the appropriate formula to reach the point of prosperity? And how can that prosperity come?

When the state of 'Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepali' is achieved, Nepal will reach the level of a developed country from the current underdeveloped state and the per capita income will reach 12,100 US dollars. Illiteracy will be eradicated and 100% of students will go to school. By that time, the country will be self-sufficient in major food grains, completely eliminate both absolute and multifaceted poverty, end subsistence agriculture, increase food production by one and a half times from the current level, produce 35,000 megawatts of electricity, make the average life expectancy 77 years, etc. .

Only Nepal made such an ambitious blueprint for prosperity? Or the question arises from the angle that this aspiration cannot be fulfilled. If those sitting in the 'driving seat' of politics think in the interest of the country and maintain political stability, such goals can be easily met and Nepalis will be prosperous in our time. Our two largest neighboring countries have also launched similar ambitious plans.

Like Nepal, India and China also had long-term thinking. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced in 2023 that India will become a developed country on the 100th anniversary of 1947, the year it was freed from colonialism. China has set two centenary goals based on 1921, the year the Communist Party was founded, and 1949, the year the People's Republic of China was founded. The first century goal was to take China to a medium level of development. It has been completed.

The second century goal is to make China a strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and modern socialist country. China is moving towards achieving that goal. Nepal also has a coincidence between these two examples. That means that Nepal is reaching a century in 2107 years when it was freed from Jahanian Rana rule. Taking this historical date as a basis, Nepal should show its readiness to achieve the goal of prosperity. Due to covid-19 etc., various indicators cannot develop at their own pace, even if the goal of prosperity is to be achieved after seven years, it seems that prosperity will be felt by our own generation.

The basis of prosperity: Demographic advantage

Population size and age structure can have profound effects on many dimensions of social processes. A place with a large population in the age group of 15-64 years has great potential for economic development. Although Nepal considers the population of 15-59 years as active population, the age group of 15-64 years has started to be considered as active population according to the increasing average life expectancy and global standards. This manpower should be employed in the labor market and should be prevented from migrating elsewhere.

Therefore, the size and age structure of the population plays an important role in the overall economic, social and environmental development of the country. Because of this, it is believed that people in the working age group of the population do economic work, which increases production and achieves prosperity. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), economic growth is considered to be possible if the share of the working-age population in the total population of the country is higher than the share of the dependent population. However, even in such a situation, the working population should have good health, quality education, and employment according to their qualifications and abilities. This age group can contribute to economic growth only when the state invests in children's education, health and overall development.

What is the basis of Nepal's prosperity? Some people will say - 83,000 megawatt water reservoir here. Some say - tourism. Some say - agriculture. But the most important thing is that the youth population of Nepal is the main basis of prosperity. Active human resources are required to keep all the mentioned sectors running. Different countries of the world have achieved prosperity through the creation of human capital. In terms of demographic structure, the working age population (age group 15-64 years) in Nepal is 65.2 percent. When a country has a situation where the dependent population decreases and the active population increases, that situation is called a situation of demographic gain. When the availability of health care and family planning services increases in a country, women's education and employment opportunities increase. That's when the fertility rate drops. The average life expectancy of people increases and the youth population begins to grow. This situation is expanding to the point where the active population (age group 15-64 years) outnumbers the dependent population (0-14 and above 65 years). If the other indicators of the country are correct, the economic growth rate of the country will be faster after entering the period of demographic gain. The benefit that comes through rapid economic growth is the demographic dividend.

In the 1981 census, the population of the 0-4 years age group was 15.4 percent while the population of the 5-9 years age group was 14.5 percent. What this data showed was that until that time there were more children born in the last year than the number of children born in the previous year in Nepal. But the 1991 census showed a decline in the birth rate in Nepal for the first time. In this census, the population of 5-9 years is more than the population of 0-4 years. At that time, the population of the age group 0-4 years was 14.6 percent, while the population of the age group 5-9 years reached 15.1 percent. From this point, there is a sign that Nepal will enter the state of demographic advantage. By the time of the 2021 census, the population of the age group of 0-4 years has reached 8.4 percent and the population of the age group of 5-9 years has reached 9.5 percent. Currently, the largest population in Nepal is in the age group of 10-14 and 15-19 years. Statistics show that people of this age group can give another 50/55 years of life in Nepal. The state should have the overall blueprint for utilizing this manpower. The United Nations defines demographic advantage and says: "When less than 60 percent of a country's population is dependent, opportunities in that country are limited". The

window starts to open.' If we look at this definition in terms of data, Nepal has entered the era of demographic gains only from 2017/2018. According to Population Monograph 2014, the dependent ratio was 93.09 in 1991, 84.69 in 2001, 75.56 in 2011 and 53.3 in 2021. 15-64 years are considered as active age group). Based on this data, the time of demographic gain started in Nepal only about 5/6 years ago. Yogendra Bahadur Gurung, the head of the Central Department of Population Studies, says that there is still half a century or at least 50 years left for demographic gains in Nepal. Active age group 15-64 years old is the current population of 65.2 percent. But this number will increase further during the next census as a large portion of the current 10-14 year old population will enter the labor market within the next five years.

The changing shape of the pyramid

The population pyramid is a figure that shows at a glance the size, type, female, male and age structure of the population in any country. It contains the younger age group population in each hole from bottom to bottom. Each column shows the percentage of the population in that age group. In the past, the shape of the pyramid of Nepal would have been inflated at the bottom and narrowed at the top. The last decade seems to have seen its size shrinking down and swelling upwards. This shows that the birth rate is falling, the youth population and the average age are increasing. It can be clear from the pyramid how many people are in which age group and what is the difference between the number of men and women. The size of the current population pyramid of Nepal indicates the beautiful future of Nepal. For this, political stability, development and prosperity are the main issues of the will of the political leadership.

The level at which the state is spending on education and health is insufficient. If we look at the budget allocated by the government in the field of education in the last decade, it is only around 10/11 percent of the total budget. In some years, only 9 percent of the budget has been allocated to the education sector. Only 4.8 percent of the total budget was allocated to the health sector last year. What can be inferred from this is that the state administrators are not able to analyze the demographic structure of Nepal well. The youth population has increased in the country. Massive investment in education and health should be increased now to reap the benefits from them in the future. Only healthy citizens with quality education can contribute economically to the country. The requirement is technical and vocational education. As it cannot be supplied in the country, thousands of youths are going abroad with billions of money.

It seems that the government should increase the investment in the education sector in order to facilitate them to study the subjects according to their wishes in the country. Not only that, state administrators should understand that investments made in children, teenagers and young people today are the basis for long-term returns for the country in the future. Not only that, those in the government should also get information about the priority of the country that has entered the demographic advantage. This applies not only to the three levels of government but also to communities and families. Parents who expect good returns from their children in the future should invest in timely education for them now.

The state is failing to provide employment to citizens who have attained Zenten education. Therefore, millions of young people are going to work abroad every year. The family is supported by the remittances they send. The country's economy is running. According to the data of Rashtra Bank, 8.39 billion remittances have entered Nepal since July of the current financial year.

Remittances reduce the country's poverty for some time but cannot develop the country. Manufacturing industries should be opened for the development of the country. Megha projects of development must be implemented. Hydropower project should be started. The service area must be wide. In general, the youth of working age youth should be used in the development of the country. Only then can development and prosperity be achieved in the country. Otherwise the demographic gains will go as they came.

The way to the future For Nepal, which is entering the golden age of

, there is also the challenge of using it. Therefore, the state should create opportunities for the youth and working adults who are growing up in the country. For this, the country will not delay in opening consumer and export industries. An environment should be created to bring in the industries of multinational companies to Nepal. As a result, thousands of youths will get jobs in the country with attractive salaries. Their earnings can benefit the country. Arab countries are developing and prospering with Nepal's demographic benefits.

Using remittances from countries like Arabia, Malaysia, and Korea, we may have received a small dividend of demographic benefit, but there is no reason to be complacent. This is a temporary dividend. The day the employing countries begin to supply labor from new countries, the youth will return home. What will they do then? What will the country do? It is too late to think and implement this matter. Therefore, if we want to make Nepal prosperous and Nepalis happy, let's start working with a clear action plan to make use of the 'once in a lifetime' demographic benefit opportunity from today.