Lok Sabha Elections: Why is Modi emphasizing on South India?

Modi entered the election field with the slogan 'Abki Baar Char Soo Par'. He is claiming that the BJP alone will win 370 seats and the BJP-led alliance will win 400 seats in the upcoming elections. But as Modi said, it is difficult to get election results. For that, not only to repeat the victory of 2019, but also to get a strong victory in South India .

The BJP alone won the majority in the last two Lok Sabha elections 2014 and 2019. BJP alone won 282 seats in 2014 and won 303 seats in 2019. BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 353 seats. In the previous two successes, the BJP seems to have gained a lot of support from the Hindi-speaking region of North India . Motivated by the consecutive majority, Modi has increased his party's target in the upcoming elections. There are 130 Lok Sabha seats in five states of South India. BJP has to win the maximum number of seats in South India for the 400-par slogan given by Modi. But in South India, the presence of parties including the opposition Congress is good .

The BJP, which won 29 seats last time in the South, is aiming to win at least half of the total seats, 62 to 65 seats this time. For that, Prime Minister Modi has been traveling to South India continuously for months. He has also started his election rally from the south. Before announcing the election, Modi has visited temples in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. He has inaugurated, laid the foundation stone and announced several development projects targeting the election before the code of conduct.

In the last three months, he has traveled to South India for 27 days. In the month of March alone, he has addressed dozens of meetings in the southern states. Modi is scheduled to make several more trips to the south in the run up to the seven-phase polls. The BJP is trying to make the most of Modi's popularity in the south. It seems that Modi himself has taken over the leadership of the election campaign in the South.

BJP has achieved a high level of success in the states of North and West in the recent elections. There is less possibility of seat increase than that . In the event that the opposition alliance "India" takes some seats from the BJP, the number of seats may decrease compared to the previous one. Political analyst Rashid Kidwai finds it challenging for the BJP alone to expect 370 seats. For that, he says, BJP should win 90 percent seats in the maximum state and 60 percent seats in the rest. "BJP has already shown excellent performance in the last elections in the states of North and West". There was an average good result in the eastern state too," he said. "BJP needs support from the south to increase the number of seats.

2019 In the south, BJP was not able to perform well in the states except Karnataka.'' His analysis is that achieving good success in the south is still difficult for the BJP. Prime Minister Modi is trying his best to woo the voters of the South . He mentioned that there is a possibility that it will increase the vote percentage of BJP, but it is still difficult to win the election. Every state in the South has a politics of fighting to protect its local language. BJP is trying to increase the Hindi language by giving priority to it across India . Even from that, there is already a kind of dissatisfaction with BJP in the southern states . BJP seems to be trying to destroy it by giving the slogan of development.

Loksabha has 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, 28 in Karnataka, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 20 in Kerala, 17 in Telangana and 1 in Puducherry. BJP's performance in states other than Karnataka last time was not good . BJP won 25 out of 28 seats in Karnataka. Now in Karnataka too, Congress is trying its best to attack BJP . Congress is running the government after winning the assembly elections there. In the 2023 Assembly elections, the Congress got excellent results.

Karnataka is considered the gateway to the south. It is considered difficult for BJP to repeat its old performance there. There has been news that the leaders are dissatisfied with the distribution of tickets within the party . There is a possibility that the Congress will take advantage of it . BJP has formed an alliance there with former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda's party Janata Dal (Secular) to make the election results in its favour. Apart from Karnataka, BJP won 4 seats in Telangana.

In Tamil Nadu, which has the highest number of Lok Sabha seats, the BJP did not win a single seat in the previous elections. Andhra, Kerala and Puducherry had similar results . Political analyst Kidwai says that it will be impossible to reach 370 due to the situation of the previous results in the south. The BJP is trying to increase its votes by forming alliances with smaller parties in the south. In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has formed an alliance with former Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party and Janasena Party. An alliance with two regional parties is likely to give the BJP some leverage there. In Tamil Nadu, after the two big regional parties distanced themselves, the BJP has joined the smaller parties. Prime Minister Modi is constantly traveling to all the southern states. BJP government's achievements and future plans are being discussed at election rallies.

In the 2019 elections, BJP won 26 seats in Gujarat, 10 in Haryana, 4 in Himachal Pradesh, 2 in Tripura, 1 in Chandigarh, 1 in Daman and Diu, 7 in Delhi and all 5 in Uttarakhand . There is no place to advance further in this province . BJP had control in big states which are considered decisive. It won 62 out of 80 seats in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh . 18 out of 42 seats in West Bengal, 17 out of 40 seats in Bihar by BJP alone and 39 seats by alliance. Similarly, 28 out of 29 seats were won in Madhya Pradesh, 24 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan and 23 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra.

BJP is weak in Punjab. As there is no alliance with the regional parties, the BJP has entered the election contest alone. Out of the 13 seats in Punjab, the Indian National Congress won the highest number of 8 seats in the 2019 elections. Similarly, BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal won 2 seats each. Similarly, Aam Aadmi Party won 1 seat .

In 2019, BJP won 11 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand, 9 out of 11 in Chhattisgarh and 9 out of 14 in Assam. Manipur and Meghalaya won two seats, one seat each. BJP alone won 303 seats in 2019 and the southern share was less.

'Prime Minister Modi is trying to increase that stake, his continuous journey to the south is about how to increase the electoral math,' analyst Kidwai told Kantipur. There is a possibility of causing damage . BJP seems to be trying to see if that possible damage can be compensated from the south.'

According to analyst Kidwai, the BJP has the ability to 'brand' the party in the election campaign better than any other party.