A development model linking production

A friend who has been running two wood industries in Kathmandu for the past 20 years told me his situation like this, "It's not that I can't earn 10-15 lakhs a month." However, if Nepal stays like this, when will it come on the road? That's why I sent my two sons to Australia to secure my future.' The reason why the country's politics revolves around power and power is not only growing frustration and dissatisfaction with the political system and the main institutions of the state, Nepali society is becoming negative towards politics as a whole. The migration of skilled and unskilled manpower has been taken by some politicians and politicians as an issue raised to increase the negativity towards the old parties. But the main reasons behind this are social, economic, political and changing patterns of population. Let's take some examples of why a Nepali goes abroad.

A youth from a middle- or low-income family. He has seen that the elder brother of the Pallo family earned money by selling real estate but went to the Gulf or Malaysia. After all, they are thinking why study 10th or 12th or waste time in college and university if they are going to go to Gulf or Malaysia. A daughter from a middle or high income household studying in class 12 in a good private school.

She has seen that most of the students in the class above her in her school have gone to study in Australia, Japan, America or the UK. She is requesting her parents day and night that if the cost of studying in a good college in Nepal is the same, why not go abroad to study. In Nepal, there are those who have just become doctors or nurses after getting good marks. Developed countries are opening the labor market for skilled manpower. They thought that it would be better to stay abroad than to stay in Nepal for the sake of being able to see and see the world, for income and security of the future.

A person has a good job in the civil service but an opportunity comes to live abroad permanently. A DV has been obtained or an application for permanent residence in Canada or Denmark has been approved. Whatever happened to your life, why not move even if you have to leave your job for the sake of your children? 5-6 years experience in army or police. Why not go to Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine or Russia to earn money even if there is a security risk than to live here on twenty-four hours duty and little money when looking at the salary or looking at your own future? A brilliant engineer who tried for many government jobs but did not succeed due to nepotism, nepotism, politicization or corruption. He experienced that being a competitor in Nepal is nothing. Frustrated with the system and the country's future, he decided to go abroad.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal once gave an example that 'there is a headmaster in a school in Rolpa, he gets a salary of 80 thousand per month but he is eager to go to America by paying 8 million. He has not seen what those who went to America after spending millions of money are doing there, but he has seen that the village is crumbling in front of his eyes every day. The Prime Minister may have pointed out the behavior of this character who has no conscience or thought, but to understand the increasing migration of Nepalis, it is necessary to consider all the social, demographic, economic and political aspects.

In the last 30 years, Nepali society has become very active and the awareness level of Nepali people has also increased significantly. About 20-25 percent of the total Nepalese population are scattered all over the world. Nepali 'diaspora' is also a big capital of Nepal. Nepal is the ninth country in the world in terms of remittances to its motherland, with remittances accounting for 23 percent of GDP in 2022. With the openness of the society and the process of democracy, the number of Nepalis who are interested, monitoring and informed about what is happening inside and outside Nepal has also increased, even though some politicians understand that those who live outside Nepal wipe their eyes as soon as they wake up in the morning and insult those who are in Nepal. Migration from villages to cities is considered natural.

According to 2023 statistics, 57 percent of the world's population lives in cities. With increasing urbanization, if the cities are not able to progress according to the migration in the fields of employment, education, health, transportation, etc., then the increasing urbanization will add more challenges to the development. In Nepal, development is reaching villages while slums are shrinking. Our development model has not been made to connect to production. According to Nepal's census 2078, the overall urbanization rate is 5 percent, while some cities are growing at around 7 percent. The population growth rate of 20 districts touched by Madhyapahari highway is negative. Also, Nepal's population growth rate is below 1 percent (0.92), i.e. below the world's average growth rate of 1.01 percent.

The Immigration Department of Nepal has stated that in 2023, out of the 1.6 million people who left Nepal, about 3 million people went to live abroad and the number of people going abroad from India is not known. If the number of young (skilled and unskilled) manpower migrates abroad as the population increases, the shortage of manpower required for Nepal is certain. Currently, the population of Nepal under the age of 40 is 60 percent, but the population of young people will decrease with time. The population under 14 years is decreasing by 7 percent, while the population over 60 years will reach 16 percent in the next 20-25 years. Nepal has only 2-3 decades to make a leap in development and prosperity by taking full advantage of the young population.

Population alone does not drive development. On the one hand, there is the issue of the quality of the population entering the labor market (education, health, skills, etc.) and on the other hand, whether the country's economy can create employment opportunities for the youth who are added to the labor market every year. In Nepal, about 400,000 young people are added to the labor market every year, and youth unemployment is said to be 15-29 percent.

Nepal's economy has gradually transformed into a 'Lahure economy'. In 30 years, the economic growth rate of Nepal is around 4 percent, while the share of industry has shrunk to 4-5 percent of the gross domestic product. If there is no change in the structure of the economy, it is not possible to create many job opportunities within the country. Like Nepal has developed such a sector that has been able to create a large market at the international level? The developed and middle-income countries of the world are developing their competitive areas by bringing in cheap labor force from countries like Nepal due to changes in their country's population pattern (such as negative growth rate or increasing number of senior citizens compared to young people).

It takes some time to improve the economy, create employment opportunities or improve the living standards of the citizens, but if the trust of the citizens in the government is broken, the migration of skilled and unskilled manpower will surely increase in a country like Nepal. Even now, more than half of the world's population does not trust that their government will do anything.

Now the question arises, what should be done immediately and in the long term to stop the migration?

The changes in the social structure of Nepal in the last 30 years (such as: changing patterns of population, migration and emigration) have created two Nepals, one inside Nepal and the other outside Nepal. As the labor market of developed countries and other new destinations opens up, the migration of labor force and talent from countries like Nepal will increase. Let us consider this reality and effectively design and implement the development and economic policies of the country. If future periodic plans and budgets ignore this change and get stuck in the same archaic policies and programs, there is a danger that Nepal will continue to fall into the cycle of low middle income (low middle income trap).

In order to create jobs in Nepal in the long term, it is necessary to identify and increase investment in the competitive areas of our investment compared to other countries in South Asia. Such as roads and railways connecting China and India, the two largest economies in terms of transportation and trade, plans to bring in 40-50 million tourists by strengthening the basic infrastructure including transportation, health and hotels, hydropower for inland trade, Nepal's herbal medicine industry, to earn a lot of money from exports. Information technology with great potential, organic farming or an ambitious plan to make Nepal a center of financial and banking sector or a plan to attract students from India and China to private sector colleges and universities by improving public education etc.

Development is reaching the village but the settlement is shrinking to some extent, our development model has focused on connecting the headquarters rather than connecting the production. If only work could be done to connect the production of the village with the city, it would have been possible to create an income-generating environment in Nepal. Foreign employment increased, but the money sent by those employed abroad or the skills and experience they brought after returning to Nepal could not be linked to production. Out of the 50,000 who return to Nepal from foreign employment every year, if only the skills, experience and competence of them could be utilized, employment would be created in Nepal and these people would not have to go to foreign employment again. By increasing investment in Nepal's public education and health, if college and university education is made accessible and of high quality, some young generation will be able to stay in Nepal.

If effective policies and programs are implemented to reduce the economic and social inequality between provinces, remote areas, cities, poor and rich, the overall situation of the country will improve. It is said that there has been a loss of 25 percent in the human development of Nepal due to existing various inequalities (gender, caste, geographical, social, income etc.). Nepal needs to pay attention to the quality of infrastructure like roads, railways, bridges, tunnels etc. More than 1800 bridges in Nepal have been left half built. Nepal's development could have taken leaps and bounds if only projects of national pride had been completed on time. From reducing the cost of the industry to bringing in more tourists depends on the quality of the infrastructure.

Indispensable for development and prosperity is the political leadership instilling hope for the country's future. Even if there is a little transparency and accountability in the way of governance, the number of those who stop to do something in the country or even return from abroad will increase.

(Not only politics, but industry, business, agriculture, education, health, tourism, banking, cinema, literature, there is disappointment everywhere now. The country cannot bear the burden of this disappointment for a long time. To promote lively faith, Kantipur has started a series of ideas- A 'starting point' where different experts will write proposals for reform, continuously.)