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Whose path is heavy in Ilam-2?

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Twenty candidates are contesting in the by-elections to be held in Ilam-2 on May 15. After receiving the election symbols, special campaigning has already started in Elam. Although the election is about to be held in only one region, the attention of political stakeholders across the country has already started to be drawn towards Ilam-2. Because this by-election is becoming a laboratory for testing the strength of old and new parties.

Whose path is heavy in Ilam-2?

The National Independent Party, which emerged from the growing distrust of traditional parties, and the UML, which has been winning there since the past, and its close competitor, the Congress, have entered the elections with intense campaigning.

In the House of Representatives elections of 2079, Raswapal won 20 seats within 6 months of party establishment. Added one seat from Tanahun election. Now another number is expected to be increased from Elam . Therefore, the candidacy of the party that emerged as a new power Eelam election is becoming interesting.

In this competition, candidates of the Janmat Party have entered the field with the agenda of the ongoing identity movement in Koshi. UML, which has a legacy of victory in Ilam-2, and Congress, which is the nearest competitor, are also in the competition with the goal of victory. is .

Nepal Communist Party (UML), Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Center) and Nepal Communist Party have fielded Suhang Nemwang of UML as a common candidate. Dambar Bahadur Khadka from the Nepali Congress, Milan Kumar Limbu from the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RASWPA) and Dakendrasingh Thegim from the identity party have registered as independent candidates.

Prem Bahadur Limbu of Janmat Party, Shyam Bahadur Darzi of Nepal Labor Kisan Party, Mani Bahadur Limbu of Mongol National Organization, Dhanraj Ranamar of National Republic of Nepal, Lakshmi Gurung of Rashtriya Prajatantra Party, Jit Bahadur Rai of Nepal Communist Party (Unified Socialist) have become candidates.

Jaywantavikram Sah of National Liberation Movement of Nepal, Ganesh Bahadur Chauhan of RPP Nepal, Resham Bahadur Sunar Nepali of Nepali Janata Dal registered their candidacy. Dak Prasad Gautam, Manoj Niraula, Arjun Kumar Sahi, Keshav Kumar Chapagain, Dipesh Bohora, Yogendra Gurung and Raj Basyal are candidates from independent.

If we look at the past election results, it is not easy for any party to win Ilam-2. Looking at the results of the main parties in the first and second Constituent Assembly elections and the two subsequent House of Representatives elections, There seems to be a fluctuation in the opinion. now The parties in the main competition are CPN UML and Nepali Congress comparatively There are more questions than the new parties.

It is not difficult to understand that there is a complicated power struggle within the Eelam Congress in the heart of the controversy that the Congress Party has experienced while choosing candidates and the controversy it has created up to the center . When the foundation within the party is disturbed, the challenge for the Congress candidate Dumbar Khadka is to overcome it is .

Following the dream of his son Suhang Babu in upanirvana that will happen after the death of UML leader Subas Nembang, who introduced the Constituent Assembly president and Salin leader are in the electoral competition . Suhang is not only accused of being a candidate on the basis of family inheritance, the answer to the question why those who have been doing politics for decades in the district had to be evicted from the competition is also being sought. How moderately Suhang answers both these questions and accusations may make a difference in the results he gets.

The most important question seems to be the size of the Maoists in this constituency. Because after the first and second Constituent Assembly, the Maoists are contesting the elections under the umbrella of the Maoist alliance, and in the last two elections in this region, the Maoists have not nominated their candidate. It is a bitter past that the Maoists, who got nearly ten thousand votes in the first Constituent Assembly election, did not get less than half that is 5000 votes in the second Constituent Assembly . On the basis of these two elections, it can be assumed that the position of Maoist is strong here. Maoists have now helped UML candidates.

The National Independent Party, which was born out of the dissatisfaction and anger of the mainstream parties, won the third place by getting 1380 votes from this region in the previous House of Representatives elections. If we compare the votes obtained by Congress and UML, this vote is very less. But if the result of the by-election in Tanahun Region No. 1 is to be taken lightly, that result cannot be underestimated .

In Tanahun, Ramchandra Paudel was elected by getting 25 thousand 331 votes, while RSVP candidate Vikas Sigdel was fourth by getting 6 thousand 44 votes . After Paudel became the President, in the by-election held there, Swarnim Wagle of RSVP was elected by getting 14 thousand 700 more votes than Congress candidate Govind Bhattarai.

Ilam Region No. 2 includes Ilam Municipality, Deumai Municipality along with Mangsebung Phakphokthum, Pura of Chulachuli and Ward No. 6, 7, and 8 of Mai Municipality . In the last local elections, along with the mayor of Deumai, the chairman of Phakphokthum and Mangsebung, Emalele, and the mayor of Ilam municipality and the chairman of Chulachuli rural municipality were won by Congress . UML is feeling a shock after the Congress won in Ilam municipality for the first time after the 2049 local elections. It is not possible to say how this push will manifest itself against UML in this year's elections. Because a lot of water has flowed in Mykhola since the local elections.

Based on the votes received by the ward president in the local elections, it seems that the Congress got more than four hundred votes in Ilam-2 than the UML . Congress got 32 thousand 978 votes and UML got 32 thousand 527. Maoist got 2 thousand 717 votes, Jaspa got 554 votes, United Samajwadi Party got 277 votes and RPPA got 130 votes.

UML, which is facing a challenge, will win the election only with the Maoists, it cannot be said that the votes obtained from the growing displeasure towards mainstream parties across the country will give an electoral boost to the RSVP this time too . It remains to be seen whether the vote share of the Congress will increase on the basis of sitting in the opposition and asking difficult questions in the Parliament, whether the search for accounting of the works done while in the Congress government will affect its vote share . And this election will also be used to explain the status of RSWP, which is spending all its time defending it after falling into the clutches of the cooperative dispute.

प्रकाशित : चैत्र २८, २०८० १९:०४
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