'Doksa' politics and Dahal who turned his back

Immediately, the door of the Congress was not opened. Ramchandra Paudel became the president and got the opportunity to stay in power for about 11 months. But the political destiny of 'Doksa' has repeated again in the country. This time, the UML has come to give 'Dhoksa' to the Maoists, who are vying for the post of the National Assembly Speaker and fearing that there will be no future electoral equation.

UML and Maoists have once again reached a theoretical agreement on the broad model of functional unity and party integration from the completion of the peace process to the upcoming elections. On the basis of the agreement, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has shifted the power.

Dahal was getting irritated with the Congress for 'non-cooperation' in the running of the government, refusing to recall the controversial ministers, indicating that there will be no future electoral equation and refusing to give the Speaker of the National Assembly according to the party status of the Assembly. The UML, which came into opposition after the Congress 'hijacked' the government it made by itself, was looking for a similar opportunity.

Monday's political events have brought politics back to the course of the coalition formed in Parliament on December 10 after the November 2079 elections. It has been said that there is an agreement to cooperate in the election after the term of this parliament is over. But the destination of this course is not sure. Because according to the arithmetic of the parliament, it is impossible to tell who will come to knock on the door with which issue.

Congress that is out of power, especially President Deuba and the leaders close to him, how can they stay on the sidelines of power for the next four years? How stable will Dahal himself be, who has been adopting the 'theory' of continuity and disorganization in power since 2064? The main question is is unanswered.

Prime Minister Dahal, who reached the Martyr Foundation program on Monday, said- 'Maoist is not like a stagnant pond from the point of view of theory and practice, but like a flowing river.' Maoists do not enjoy continuity, they are a race that enjoys disruption in continuity.'

In a very energetic style, he portrays his own character He added - 'Until I die, the country will remain in turmoil.'

is a word that Dahal, who came to mainstream politics through a ten-year armed rebellion, repeatedly repeats - disorganization in continuity . This time also he has talked about the same sequence. They are again predicting that there will be upheaval. So another upheaval is not unexpected.

If we look at Dahal's political ups and downs during the 17 years since he came to the peace process, he has changed his shoulder to power many times.

In the years since the peace process in 2063, Maoist has always been around the power . In the meantime, Maoists have had the opportunity to lead the government four times, in which Dahal has become the prime minister three times except Baburam Bhattarai.

In the period of almost a decade and a half, Dahal has not only played a role in forming the government sometimes under the leadership of Congress and sometimes UML, but he has also been turning the key of power himself, which has given him the personal benefits of government power, but his party is getting ridiculed .

In the first Constituent Assembly election of 2064, Maoists alone won 120 seats directly and 100 seats proportionally. Dahal became the Prime Minister for the first time in the year 2065 on the strength of that referendum.

When the party emerged from the rebellion as a powerful party through the ballot box, the Maoist leaders including Dahal had a revolutionary thrill. Therefore, in the name of disorganization, he unsuccessfully tried to remove the then Chief of Army Staff Rukmangat Katwal, who had only four months left in his tenure.

due to which Dahal had to leave the government within 9 months . Dahal lost power because he could not trust the state agencies.

As it started after the Katwal incident, the erosion took the Maoist to the third position in the second Constituent Assembly election of 2070 . In 2070, Maoist won only 26 seats directly and got only 56 seats proportionally. From the first to the second Constituent Assembly, even though it shrunk a lot, the Maoist party became a decisive force in the game of power within the hung parliament.

After the promulgation of the constitution in the year 2072, a ruling alliance was formed between the UML and the Maoists. Dahal supported Oli . However, Dahal withdrew his support to UML within nine months saying that Oli did not care about completing the rest of the peace process and that there was a conspiracy to implicate him in the conflict issue. The Oli government collapsed and Dahal became the Prime Minister for the second time in 2073 with the support of the Congress.

Dahal, who had fallen to the third party, had agreed to lead the electoral government to the Congress after becoming the Prime Minister for the second time. According to the agreement, Deuba became the Prime Minister after nine months. Dahal cooperated with the Congress until the local elections of 2074.

Dahal decided to join the UML by breaking the alliance with the Congress in October 2074 after failing to achieve the expected benefits by forming an electoral alliance with the Congress. Dahal's decision to leave the power partner party in the middle and form a new alliance with another party was a step taken as an attempt to gain power of the party .

Drawing a path to party unity with UML, Dahal joined the Maoists in the left alliance in the November 2074 elections. With the strength of the alliance, the Maoists made some progress in the election of 2074.

KP Oli became the Prime Minister on February 3, 2074 after the alliance of UML and Maoists got a clear majority. At that time, there was an agreement between Oli and Dahal to become prime minister. The agreement was not formally brought out by the leaders who informed only in the party meetings.

After Oli became the Prime Minister in February, the UML and the Maoist Center united the party to strengthen the ruling coalition. Oli became powerful in power after the creation of a single party with the majority, CPN. Under the guise of that power, Oli increased his influence in government operations.

After Oli ran the government for about a year, Dahal and another leader Madhav Kumar Nepal formed an alliance within the CPN. They started criticizing Oli's activities, which Oli did not like. As the conflict intensified, the CPN split.

Dahal tried to take advantage of the hanging situation within the party that has been unified. There was bitterness between Oli and Madhav Kumar Nepal since UML. After the party unification, Dahal also joined the relationship between Oli and Nepal. Sometimes Oli and sometimes Dahal's style of meeting with Nepal played a role in planting the seeds of division within the CPN.

When the government was being formed, there was a secret agreement between Oli and Dahal to alternate the post of Prime Minister . Before the time came to implement the agreement, Dahal spoke about it publicly. That made him negative towards Oli Dahal . Dahal's non-cooperation in government operation also increased.

The peak of this bitterness was seen on December 5, 2077. Oli dissolved the parliament by using the powers that are not in the constitution. Not only Oli but also Dahal's role worked in the situation where Oli dissolved the parliament.

After the dissolution of the CPN, Dahal took the hand of cooperation with the Congress . Dahal, who formed an alliance with the Congress calling Oli's dissolution of parliament as a regression, did not leave the Congress even in the local elections held last May and the general elections in November.

In the local elections of Baisakh, Maoists got relatively good seats. Thinking that the alliance with the Congress would be beneficial, Dahal continued the alliance with the Congress even in the general elections of November. However, the November election results were not as expected by the Maoists. The Maoists, who contested 44 seats, directly won only 18 seats. While the Congress, which contested 91 seats, won 57 seats .

Congress, which had won 23 seats in the past, won 57 seats by taking advantage of the alliance, while Maoist, which had won 36 seats in the past, was reduced to 18 seats . This result made Dahal disillusioned with the Congress. However, Dahal tried to continue the alliance with the Congress after getting the first term as Prime Minister according to the previous agreement. However, after Deuba refused to serve the first term, Dahal now became the Prime Minister for the third time together with Oli.

In this way, Dahal, who became the Prime Minister on December 10, 2079, changed his appearance after 15 days. Congress also gave him a vote of confidence on December 26. After receiving the vote of confidence, contrary to the wishes of UML, he adopted the policy of supporting the Congress in the presidency.

UML and Maoists had a relationship of trust until the election of the Speaker. When it came to the presidential election, Dahal broke with the UML and formally joined the Congress. Form alliance Did . UML left the government on February 15, 2079. After that, Dahal, who moved forward with the Congress, made a new alliance from Monday.

Dahal's party is not as powerful as it was in 2064. But as an advantage of the hung parliament, he has been able to take turns with Congress and UML.

When he was the prime minister last year, Dahal had not deeply discussed the broken relationship with the UML . So immediately he was attracted towards the Congress . He became a helper to fill the door of the Congress . But now he has again joined the equation with parties like UML, Raswapa and Jaspa. On Monday, he gave a briefing on ending the peace process, speeding up the work of the government and changing the alliance to strengthen the unity of the left.

The main challenge for Dahal is to maintain balance and trust with parties like UML, Raswapa, Jaspa. Many problems of citizens are scattered on the streets. There is sharp criticism that the government is not able to work. The state of the economy is disappointing. There is a challenge to bring change in this situation.

If Dahal's language is adopted, the current alliance could be a relatively 'progressive' alliance. The 'weapon' to stop the efforts of the reactionaries to perfect Can also be made . But how they use that weapon and how stable and balanced they move is not certain.

As in the past, Dahal is contracted to be the Prime Minister by turns. When the period of getting out of power as agreed is approaching, then the 'Doksa' politics may be repeated again.

Parliament's arithmetic is such that the third party has the opportunity to change from the first and second party which benefits more. Therefore, it will not be a surprise that Dahal wants to turn his back and Congress came to knock on the door again in this parliamentary period .