'Ethnic factor' decisive in Bihar elections

MP Ajay Nishad, who won the elections from BJP two times before, has now changed the party . In the 2019 election, Nishad won the election with a margin of 400,000 votes. It is said that after the BJP did not give him the ticket, the Congress tried to change the political course here by pulling it towards them.

Here, the opposition India alliance has tried to stop BJP's 'hat trick' through Nishad. BJP has nominated Dr. Rajbhushan Chaudhary Nishad as its candidate. He was a candidate from the opposition alliance in the previous Lok Sabha elections.

Journalist and election analyst Amarendra Tiwari of Muzaffarpur says that the candidate who lost in 2019 was from the party that won at that time and the person who won was from the party that lost, which brought interest in the elections here. Like Nishad, BJP has cut the tickets of Lok Sabha MPs Ashwini Kumar Choubey from Buxar, Rama Devi from Shivhar and Sasaram Chedi Paswan.

Journalist Tiwari analyzes the negative impact of cutting off the ticket of MPs who won from the Brahmin, Malah and Dalit communities. He said that since the opposition alliance paid special attention to the social equation in the distribution of tickets, it increased the challenge of the BJP.

Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats . In 2019, the BJP-led NDA alliance won 39 seats. In that, BJP won 17 seats, Janata Dal United won 16 seats and Lok Janshakti Party won 6 seats. Congress won only 1 seat from the opposition alliance.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar played an important role in forming the 'India' alliance last year by bringing together the opposition parties against the BJP. With Nitish moving from the BJP to the opposition, the BJP has reached a very weak position in Bihar. The two main parties in Bihar, Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish's Janata Dal United came together.

Apart from that, unlike 2019 when the Congress and the Communists were also in alliance, it was estimated that the opposition would win most of the seats in Bihar this year. However, last January, Nitish Kumar separated himself from the opposition 'India' alliance and again reached BJP, shaking the politics of not only Bihar, but the whole country . Nitish's exit dealt a big blow to the 'India' alliance to oust the BJP from power. The equation of Bihar also turned upside down.

Darbhanga-based political analyst and former professor of Delhi University, Dr. Pradeepkant Choudhary, says that the opposition coalition is not in a position to benefit as expected from Nitish's exit. However, he believes that the situation will not be as bad as last time. He claims that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's image has been damaged by frequent back and forth. He said that its impact will be seen in the Lok Sabha elections.

Nitish's Rashtriya Janata Dal United is likely to lose some seats. BJP also does not seem to be in a comfortable position," he said. "The power of the ruling coalition rests only on the charisma of Modiji. Only that will give results. At the ground level, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav is giving a tough fight to the ruling coalition. Although Lalu Yadav attended few meetings due to ill health, his son, former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi, has continuously held the election command.

The party performed well under his leadership in the assembly elections in 2020. In the assembly of 243 seats, RJD became the largest party by getting 79 seats. BJP won 74 seats in the second place and Nitish's JD(U) got 45 seats in the third place. Despite being a third party, sometimes with RJD and sometimes with BJP, Nitish continues to be the Chief Minister .

Professor Chaudhary says that caste issues play an important role in someone's victory or defeat in Bihar elections. He says that the caste aspect is dominating here rather than the issue of development or political considerations and that plays a decisive role.

Journalist Tiwari also analyzes that Lalu's RJD can benefit from Nitish Kumar's declining popularity. He said that there was no wave of BJP like 2019. He estimates that the percentage of voting in the two-phase elections will also be a loss to the ruling party. In Bihar, most of the seats are contested between NDA and India Alliance candidates. However, Tiwari said that there is a tripartite competition somewhere.

Pappu Yadav has made a tripartite contest in the Purnia seat by running as an independent candidate. Similarly, Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen has made the bilateral conflict tripartite by fielding candidates in Muslim-majority areas. Journalist Tiwari comments that the victory of NDA depends on Modi's "magic" as there is dissatisfaction with the ruling party at the local level. He mentioned that while Modi and Nitish are accusing Lalu of nepotism, some of the candidates in the NDA alliance are holding on to their father's political legacy.

Left party got 5 seats from opposition alliance in Bihar . Begusarai, Khagadia, Nalanda, Ara and Karakat Lok Sabha seats are divided into three Communist parties. RJD got 26 seats and Congress got 9 seats. RJD on its part has given 3 seats to other small parties . In the ruling NDA coalition, BJP has got 17 seats, JDU 16, Lok Janshakti Party 5 and others 2.

Since 'cast politics' prevails in Bihar, all the communist parties have selected candidates based on caste votes. There are 74.6 million voters in Bihar's 13 million population. In terms of caste, Yadav and Muslim are leading. Lalu Yadav has been doing politics to keep 30 percent of Muslim-Yadav votes in his favor.

Nitish Kumar is from the Kurmi caste. He is eyeing 36 percent votes of Kurmi, Koiri and OBC. BJP has been considering the vote bank of the alleged upper castes as its own.