A (dis)economist approach to budgeting

The truth is that the budget is a matter connected with the daily lives of people from all walks of life. Therefore, the expertise/interest in it is not limited to one group. The columnist is not an 'economist', but he has tried to write about it based on his reading in economics.

Import-oriented economy

Lately, one of the main parameters of Nepal's financial situation has been the total foreign exchange reserves. Another, doing anything in the name of revenue, i.e. revenue oriented. When the reserves increase, the country's financial situation is said to be better and worse. There is a situation where the National Bank publishes a report that the reserve is sufficient to meet the import of goods and services for this month. This means that Nepal's current destiny is to work on an index based on imports.

The data says that the import of agricultural and animal products has doubled in five years. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, such goods were imported worth 3 trillion 41 billion 51 crore rupees in the last financial year 2078/79. In 2074/75, 1 trillion 71 billion 3 billion rupees were imported, increasing every year, 1 trillion 65 billion in 2075/76, 2 trillion 12 billion 72 billion in 2076/77, and 2 trillion 84 billion 98 billion in 2077/78. . Looking at only 10 months of the current financial year, 47.29 billion rupees went abroad for the purchase of food including rice, 11.69 billion rupees were spent on prepared food, 27.53 billion rupees on vegetables, 16.19 billion rupees on fruits, 6.64 billion rupees on tea, coffee and spices. is Similarly, there is a data of import of tobacco products worth 2.76 billion rupees, dairy products and other products worth 21.19 billion rupees, mustard, oil, fruits and other seeds worth 20 billion rupees.

The question arises, is this the only destiny of the country? no Nepal did not operate on the basis of import-oriented economy yesterday, nor can it continue like this tomorrow. What we are trying to do is to make it more productive than in the past. According to the data of July 2079, the total import of Nepal is 19 trillion 20 billion. Although its main share is diesel and petrol, the share of import of agricultural products is about 18 percent. Is it possible to reduce the import of these goods? If you have a strong will, it is possible to make a leap in agriculture. Even today, a large part of the living population has grown up participating in agricultural production itself. It is said that it is possible because they are in a position to transfer knowledge even though they are old and unable to work.

The reason why farmers stop producing in Nepal is the intervention and intervention of foreign capital in the name of modern fertilizers, tools and medicines in the society based on production and self-reliance of yesterday, rather than sad occupation or other reasons. When the farmer, who is making agriculture a way of life so that the use of money is negligible, when it came to a situation where he had to spend cash on every part, that situation changed from the way of life and turned into economic activity and accounting. As a result, the producer farmers were also forced to look at profit and loss. Rather than doing loss-making economic activities, go to other professions or other people's work to get wages and see profit. The result is the situation in Nepal today, where the generation in the age group of 20 to 30 years is far away from the practical knowledge that the family members are no longer engaged in agriculture, that's why it doesn't matter if you don't know about this profession. How to start making

possible? If the government should start the farming that you are doing, the entire wage of individual labor should be added to the production from it on the basis of the minimum wage set by the government. The government will subsidize the loss incurred by doing this, but many of them would produce at least the amount needed for household use from their own produce. The products grown from it were marketed in the villages. It must be said that there is also a problem with the similes we are using on our citizens these days. Traders who combine a part of the money paid by the people for consumption as taxes are 'taxpayers' or 'private sector' for us, while those who get jobs from the taxes paid by producers and consumers are called 'Rashtrasevak'. But even respectful words to address self-sufficient farmers who produce and eat themselves and carpenters, carpenters, goldsmiths, gitangi, surwadak etc. who have traditional skills in their own hands are not in vogue. Therefore, if they do not have to live on the hopes of others and do not dare to bring programs linguistically and economically to encourage those who live on their own efforts, Nepal will remain in this import-oriented attitude, commentary and future.

As far as petroleum imports are concerned, as citizens engage in agricultural occupations, urban-centric human movement and migration will automatically decrease. Because this agriculture demands people's time in farming, not in city/market squares and tea stalls. Meaning, as participation in agriculture increases, people have less free time, less travel or commuting, and over time, the ratio of vehicle use is also seen to decrease from what it is today. This seems to be the only reasonable way available now to get rid of the bhumari of import-oriented commentary.

Agriculture sector and this year's budget

This time, the government has allocated 75 billion 29 million to the Ministry of Agriculture Development and Livestock. On the one hand, 081 to 091 has been declared as the decade of investment in agriculture, while on the other hand, the agricultural budget has decreased by one billion and 69 million rupees. Finance Minister Varshman Puna says that the price of chemical fertilizers has decreased in the international market and the budget of agriculture seems to be decreasing.

But the question arises, what to do if the price of fertilizer increases in the market tomorrow? Farmers have not been getting cheap chemical fertilizers for years. For decades, during the farmers' season, they have to go to the headquarters shop for several days, and even if they barely get enough fertilizer, they can get it through government godowns. Which on the one hand has reduced the productivity of the soil and on the other hand reduced production and cost. In this situation, the decrease in the amount reserved for the 'token' subsidy given in fertilizers also means that the government is not eager to bring the agricultural production back to normal.

Showing 1 billion 44 crore rupees, the government says, this year's budget has been allocated 'only' for the development of the fruit sector. This budget is nothing in itself when there is government data that shows apple turnover of more than 6 billion rupees a year and 90 percent of it depends on imported apples. While the share of total fruit imports has been 16 to 17 billion in the last three years, some programs like plant production do not seem to have much impact. The rattan of 'commercialization' is found here and there, but the government and policy makers have not been able to think through how the sudden commercialization of agriculture, which is not self-sufficient, is possible. Surprisingly, by removing the VAT on fruits like potatoes, onions, and apples, the government says, "This will increase domestic production". To increase domestic production, farmers will be given concessions on fertilisers, seeds, irrigation and wages and not on VAT to consumers. Farmers or buyers to increase production? Does ease in VAT benefit the producer or the consumer? Abolition of VAT will help goods produced in China, India and elsewhere under government concessions to enter Nepal and replace local products!

' private sector' and the budget

Looking at the reactions to the budget, perhaps the government is mad, because there was not much criticism. The unorganized sector in Doordarar has no interest in this, nor does the government expect their response. Since all the main parties except the Congress are in the government, their workers did not even criticize it. BP Koirala, who was ousted for starting historic work in favor of workers, farmers and the landless, is shocked to see that even the Congress, which prefers to be known as the 'legacy of capitalism', is afraid that a large part of it is not distribution-oriented. It is difficult to see in the Congress leaders that if you want to make a leap in something, you should also work on a distributive or populist concept.

The special group to discuss this budget is the 'private sector' this time as well. But due to the lack of clarity in the definition itself, in the opinion of many, the 'private sector' has become like a club of business houses centered in Kathmandu. In the recent days, the group has succeeded in giving the impression that we are a national organization by distributing some more members in the district and creating an environment where the local people at least participate in the leadership selection process. But the agenda today seems to be different from that of participating members and strictly business house-centric. Looking at the character of the leadership, it is not easy to generalize as 'Nepali private sector'. While insisting that it is the private sector, Rabaiya, who does not include the informal sector, is like saying, "When you see a snake, put your hands on the goji, and when you see a fish, put your hands on the dulo." The agenda tends to focus on trade and profit rather than on the interests of farmers and workers, who are overwhelmingly in numbers and by definition the private sector. This year's lobbying to remove the VAT imposed on potatoes, onions, apples and other fruits is probably from this group.

sometimes claims 86.87 and sometimes 81.55 percent of the GDP contribution of the sector. In addition, 85.6 percent of jobs are provided by Jas. In doing so, one hesitates to assume that 57 percent of the employment figures provided by agriculture, forestry and fisheries are for subsistence agriculture-based farmers and fishermen. While the study shows that there are 12.5 percent employment in motor and motorcycle repair, 8.1 percent in construction, 3.9 percent in other services and 3.8 percent in production, about 62 percent of those who work without an appointment are working in the informal sector. ' Not looking positive till today.

In summary, the government makes policies and programs with priorities for the coming year and brings the budget in terms of implementation. That is why the budget is not only the future strategy of the government, but also an important document that analyzes the purpose and concept of the government and estimates the theoretical basis for it. With the Congress leaving the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government and the UML entering, some who believed in the Left were happy to comment that the government was now dominated by 'progressives'. On the other hand, until two decades ago, there was no special discussion except for the positive response given by some business houses about the budget brought by their own finance minister, who called the "people's war" as the ultimate goal to end the "broker capitalist" controlled economy.

If a country like Nepal wants to increase the size of its economy even today, it has to go for a distribution-oriented budget that seems a bit populist. There are also small farmers and the working class in this country who are self-sufficient without relying on the state for sustenance. It was seen that this government and the finance minister were not ready to accept the criticism of the majority who are not getting a comfortable environment to work because of the existing caste, gender and other structures in the society. In particular, this budget could not go beyond the self-interest of a group that has been raising its voice in an organized manner. The budget has also missed the opportunity to appear in favor of real farmers, laborers and prominent Nepali people.