An ambitious target of reducing poverty to 12 percent in 5 years

In the new plan, a target has been set to reduce absolute poverty from the present 20.3 percent to 12 percent by the financial year 085/86. It has ambitious goals including economic growth of more than seven percent, per capita income reaching 2,413 US dollars, reducing unemployment to five percent, and increasing the average life expectancy to 73 years. In the next five years, compared to the gross domestic product (GDP), the revenue ratio is 27.9 percent, the federal expenditure is 34.4 percent, and the government debt is 39 percent. Economists say that the economic growth rate of more than seven percent set in the new plan is ambitious.

Former Finance Minister Yuvraj Khatiwada said that the goals of the Sixteenth Plan are ambitious and challenging. When the average economic growth of 7.1 percent set by the plan is achieved, most of the indicators are achieved, per capita income also reaches the target. But with the economic growth of 7 percent, the revenue is a bit ambitious,' he said, 'GDP is also increasing, so to achieve the target of the revenue, a big change is required in the tax system, which is very difficult.' He said that resources may not be enough to achieve economic growth of 7.1 percent on average. All investments should be used in the most efficient manner. For that, transformational change is required, which does not seem possible within 5 years,” he said. He said that the production process is becoming capitalistic, in such a situation, the cost of capital may be higher, more investment may be required and more loans may have to be mobilized for that.

The new plan aims to increase economic growth by an average of 7.1 percent over a five-year period. "The sectoral growth of the economy will contribute to the overall economy and an average economic growth of 7.1 percent will be achieved during the plan period," the 16th plan states, "It is estimated that economic growth will be 3.9, 9.4 and 7.1 percent in the agricultural industry and service sector respectively. . According to this, it is estimated that a minimum of 7.4 to a maximum of 8.1 percent economic growth will be achieved during the plan period.'

In this way, when the economic growth rate is achieved according to the target and the country's economy expands, it is estimated that the gross domestic product will reach 79 trillion 14 billion 54 crores (at the price of the financial year 079/80) in the last year of the plan. During that period, the government estimates that the value addition of the primary sector will be 14 trillion 46 billion 42 billion, the value addition of the second sector will be 9 trillion 99 billion 59 billion and the value addition of the tertiary sector will be 42 billion 99 billion 70 billion, and the overall value addition will reach 67 trillion 38 billion 20 billion.  ;

Gobind Nepal, a former member of the National Planning Commission, said that since the poverty rate is decreasing well due to remittances, there will be no difficulty in achieving the target set in the new plan. What is the growth of the private sector? At present the growth of trade is stagnant, the growth rate of industry and construction is negative. Therefore, the contribution to the GDP may not be as per the target,'' he said. The size of GDP can reach. Because the government's policy and program is to change the basis of GDP, then there can be a positive movement here. However, it is said that a total investment of 114 trillion will be required throughout the plan period.

About 80 billion of that is in the private sector. Currently, the government's investment is around 8.5 billion annually. It could be increased. But the private sector will have to double it," he said. "Therefore, if the expected investment is not met, the production may be low and the expected economic growth may not happen." The

plan envisages significant structural changes in the economy due to high value addition in the industry and services sector. The contribution of agriculture to GDP is expected to decrease from 24.6 percent to 21.5 percent, the plan says, and the contribution of industry is expected to increase from 12.9 percent to 14.8 percent. It is estimated that the contribution of the service sector will increase from 62.4 to 63.7 percent. It is estimated that a large part of the dependent manpower in the agricultural sector will be transferred to the industry and service sector in the 16th plan.

Since there is a possibility of significant growth in the real sector, it is estimated that the per capita income of Nepalese will increase significantly when the economy expands. "Based on the assumption that the current population growth rate will be maintained during the plan period, per capita income will reach 340,000 or 2,381 US dollars in the last year of the plan," the plan says, "In the same year, per capita income will reach 2,413 US dollars. appears.'

Economist Poshraj Pandey says that since the government has set targets without arranging specific programs and sufficient resources in the periodic plan, it will be very difficult to achieve victory accordingly. Currently, per capita income is around 1,400 US dollars. It is said that it will be increased by about 1000 dollars to 2400 in five years, it does not seem possible," he said. "It is said that the unemployment rate will also be reduced to 5 percent. Various programs have been organized for this. But it is not clear how much resources are required for those programs and how they will be managed.' He said that this is also ambitious. In the last two decades, there has been an average growth of around 4 percent. The revenue and income gap is also widening. In such a situation, he argues that there is no possibility of economic growth according to the target. It is said that the necessary resources to achieve the projected economic growth in the

plan will be gathered from the government, private sector and cooperatives. "In order to achieve an average economic growth rate of 7.1 percent during the plan period, it is estimated that a total fixed capital investment of 91 trillion 96 billion 14 billion rupees will be required," the plan says, "of which 6 trillion 88 billion 54 billion in agriculture and 85 trillion 7 billion 60 in non-agriculture It seems that the total investment will be 114 trillion 850 million during the plan period.

Thus, out of the total investment during the plan period, the government estimates that 27 trillion 64 billion 90 million from the public sector, 61 trillion 97 billion 63 billion from the private sector and 2 trillion 33 billion 61 billion from the cooperative and community sector (at the price of the financial year 079/80). is Expressed at prevailing prices, it is estimated that the investment will be 34 trillion 45 billion 77 crore, 76 trillion 67 billion 42 crore and 2 trillion 96 billion 66 crore from the public, private and cooperative sectors respectively.

According to this, the contribution of the government sector to the total investment will be 30.2 percent, 67.2 percent of the private sector and 2.6 percent of the cooperative sector. The government claims that new alternative sources have also been identified as sufficient investment from traditional sources alone will be insufficient to achieve the target economic growth rate set by the plan.

"The traditional sources will be government revenue, foreign aid, public debt, share capital and credit investment by the private sector," the plan says, "as an alternative source, foreign direct investment, public private partnership, mixed investment, project development bonds, Income flow from natural resource reserves, green finance, climate finance, carbon tax, resources in various public institutions funds will be mobilized. The government's goal is to reach 27.9 percent of revenue mobilization in the last year of the

plan. Similarly, it is estimated that the federal government's expenditure as a proportion of GDP will remain at 34.4% and financial transfers at 10.3%. The government plans to maintain the outstanding public debt to GDP ratio at 39 percent by the last year of the plan. Currently, the ratio of revenue to GDP is 20.3, federal expenditure is 23.6 and outstanding debt is 41.7 percent.