A national rein in Modi's international ambitions

Not only that, it was also promoted that the war between Russia and Ukraine was temporarily stopped at Modi's request. Modi was also portrayed as a leader of global leaders by playing extensive advertisements on the subject during the election. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was succeeding in conveying the message of India's increased confidence by replying to the Western countries with blunt and strong words from their own platforms. Modi, who became popular in the country during his first term in 2014, became popular outside the country after 2019 and India's views on international issues were awaited, and branding was done vigorously. Because of this, Modi had a desire to become a global politician. His foreign policies were also focused in that direction. However, after the recent election, internal politics has become weak, and the challenges in the global world seem to be an obstacle in front of him.

The election results have proved that the popularity of Modi, who has started his third term, has greatly decreased in the country. Modi, who became the prime minister twice in a row with a comfortable majority, has become the prime minister this time with the support of the allies. On the other hand, opposition parties have a strong presence in parliament. As the score of internal politics in mathematics has become weaker than the previous term, Modi may have to bear the impact on the global stage as well. The analyst says that while he is a strong prime minister, he could not solve the geopolitical challenges in the international world and in the neighborhood.

Elections have brought about some changes in politics within India. Modi has weakened somewhat. However, as the geopolitical situation and problems remain, it seems difficult to face it in the third term and present as a strong leader on the global stage. Since 2020, the increased tension with China has remained status quo. Dozens of negotiations at the military and political levels have failed to yield meaningful results. On the other hand, India's traditional ally Russia has grown closer to and dependent on China. The increasing pressure on India by Western countries including the US and Europe has become a challenge for the Modi government. India's relationship with Canada has also deteriorated over the Khalistan issue.

Similarly, Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Gaza war will have to deal with various effects. War-induced inflation is difficult to control. Facing the terrorist challenge is also an issue that has come up before. Apart from that, not being able to keep the neighboring countries satisfied and the growing influence of China in the neighborhood is another big challenge. Mohamed Muizzoo, who took power in the Maldives late last year, warned India in strong terms not to interfere. Not only that, Maldives forced the Modi government to recall 88 Indian soldiers from their country. It has proved that the neighbors are no longer in a position to listen to India alone. Moreover, there is an innate enmity with another Pakistan. Apart from that, the neighbors have also started to be vocal with India on their issues. Nepal has also been increasing pressure on India to resolve the border dispute and revise the 1950 treaty.

Afghanistan, Myanmar's internal strife and Sri Lanka's economic crisis are also a challenge for India to move forward with the troubled neighborhood. India has been maintaining good relations with Sheikh Hasina by supporting the elections in Bangladesh which were boycotted by the opposition. However, America is not satisfied with the democratic process of Bangladesh. Bangladesh has also maintained ties with China to maintain a balance without US support. Dozens of projects are underway there under China's Belt and Road program. Being at the mouth of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh is very important for China from a geopolitical point of view. Hasina paid a state visit to India on Friday ahead of her official visit to China next month. She visited India for the second time in two weeks. She attended Prime Minister Modi's swearing-in ceremony on June 9 and arrived in India on June 21 on a two-day visit. After the swearing-in ceremony of Modi's third term, she has left India as the first foreign guest.

Harsh B. Pant, a professor of international relations and the vice-president of the well-known think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF), considers the non-positive change in the ongoing tension with China and its increasing influence in India's neighborhood as the first and biggest challenge for the Modi government in geopolitical matters. There is no sign of change in the tension with China. Talks have been held many times," he said in a conversation with Kantipur, "China is expanding its influence in every neighboring country of India. China has a lot of resources for that India does not have the same resource. It is difficult for India to come with assistance equal to that of China in the neighborhood.'

Pant said that India has special benefits such as 'people to people' relations in the neighborhood and different countries than China and family atmosphere and personal relations between leaders.

He believes that India can benefit from the 'neighbour first' policy adopted by India not only by talking, but by implementing it in a progressive manner. He suggested that India should be able to convey the message that its neighbor is its first priority by replacing the projects and controversial issues that have not been completed for many years.

The prime minister has already given the responsibility of all the important ministries in his cabinet to the minister. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has also been repeated. Similarly, they have also tried to convey the message of importance to the neighbors by inviting guests from neighboring countries other than Pakistan for the swearing-in ceremony. "Looking at the beginning of one and a half weeks of Modiji, he has clearly indicated that he will increase the old foreign policy," Prof. Pant said, "Modiji seems to be trying to keep neighboring countries on his side for the last few years. It seems that it will be continued in this tenure as well. However, the main thing is its practical implementation.'

Apart from tensions with China and Pakistan, he mentioned that lately there are signs that India is trying to give special priority to its relations with other neighbors. The foreign affairs experts should understand aspects such as India's assistance in Sri Lanka's economic crisis, continuing food and medicine aid despite the lack of diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, strengthening bilateral relations with Bangladesh and prioritizing energy trade or connectivity with Nepal from the point of view of the Modi government's prioritization of relations with its neighbours. explains.

Manoj Joshi, the author of the book 'Understanding the China Border', an expert on foreign affairs, says that the unconditional withdrawal of troops from the Maldives should also be seen as a change in India's Rabaiya. He believes that there has been some change in India in the old way of thinking that one's neighbors should have their own say in every matter. "India's peaceful handling of the deteriorating relationship after Muizzu's ascension to power in the Maldives is an example of that," Joshi told Kantipur. Can.'

India came under blockade as a strong response to the Madhesi party that Nepal did not listen to them while promulgating the constitution. Nepal, a landlocked country, had to endure India's blockade for more than 6 months. According to Joshi, from the experience that it has also harmed him, recently India has started to take a policy of working more thoughtfully in neighborhood matters.

He says that the strategy of resolving the issues and grievances of the neighbors in a peaceful manner is meaningful for India. He suggested that India can fulfill global interests and become a global power only by taking its neighbors along with it.

Experts say that the Modi government should adopt a balanced and modest foreign policy to realize the dream of making India the world's third economic power. How many wars is the world polarized right now? If Trump wins in the US, more wars are expected. The Vice President of ORF Prof. The situation of war will hinder India's goal of becoming the third economic power nation. Pant says. In foreign affairs, one thing is thought, another thing happens. Russia-Ukraine war or Israel-Gaza war has damaged the global economic sector. It is impossible to say what will happen tomorrow," he said, "India should be ready to face many such challenges. The growing closer relationship between Russia and China may also affect India.'

India, which has been developing its relationship with the US, is not shunned by Russia due to old traditional security dependencies. However, if the Ukraine war drags on, the American and Western pressure on India to break ties with Russia is likely to increase. Similarly, due to close relations, if Chinese influence on Russia's policy increases in the future, India may be able to reconsider its relationship with Russia, Prof. Pant's analysis. "To what extent will Russia's dependence on China increase and to what extent will Chinese influence on the policy taken by Russia increase?" It will affect the geopolitical equation," he said. "It seems that India is closely observing the relationship between Russia and China at the moment."

How successful Modi is in his third term in improving relations with the neighborhood, reducing China's influence and expansion, balancing relations with Western countries including the US, and maintaining traditional friendship with Russia will determine his journey on the global stage. Joshi, an expert in foreign affairs, says that while India is moving forward in facing various challenges on the global stage, its priorities with its neighbors should not be underestimated or forgotten. He said that if the ongoing disputes with neighbors other than Pakistan and China are resolved with priority, it will send a big positive message about India on the global stage.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said that the 'neighborhood first' policy will be implemented more actively during Modi's third term. In a regular press conference last week, on the question of Kantipur, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that the 'neighborhood first' policy is very important for India. He said that it was displayed at the swearing-in ceremony of the Prime Minister. The presence of leaders of neighboring countries in the swearing-in ceremony has shown how much importance India attaches to all its neighbors including Nepal," he said. "India has a special relationship with Nepal. And, in the coming days, it will become stronger.'' He said that Jaishankar's first foreign trip to Sri Lanka and the Prime Minister of Bangladesh becoming the first guest also showed the importance India attaches to its neighbours.