How easy is Oli-Deuba cooperation?

During the power alliance with the Maoists, Oli repeatedly offered Deuba the position of Prime Minister. Deuba not only rejected it, but also stopped the informal meeting with Oli so that Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal would not get suspicious. But after the Maoists suddenly turned their backs on the alliance on February 21, Deuba called Dahal a 'cheater'. After that, it was he who planted the seeds of the Congress-UML alliance by proposing to make Oli the prime minister.

A series of dialogues between Deuba and Oli for a new equation started one month after the formation of the Maoist-UML power equation, ie from Chait 28. The same dialogue created the environment to bring the two big competing parties together on June 17.

The 'chemistry' of Deuba and Oli's relationship is amazing. For the first time, when the House of Representatives was dissolved on December 5, 1977, Deuba did not oppose Oli's move. However, due to infighting within the party, Deuba could not make a decision to go to the election. For the second time, the dissolution of 078 Jeth 8 gave him the post of Prime Minister.

Whether Oli or Deuba is the prime minister, despite being heavily criticized when they are out, the appointment of constitutional bodies during the prime ministership of both of them has been in the past. During the dissolution of the House of Representatives, Oli issued a custom ordinance and appointed 52 constitutional officers without a parliamentary hearing.

Political analyst and former administrator Bhojraj Pokharel says that the current equation should not be taken too strangely because two major parties used to run the government together when the country was in trouble in the past. As he said, both the Congress and the UML participated in the National United Government formed after the 2004 people's movement. After the 056 general election, after the 062/063 public movement and during both terms of the Constituent Assembly, these two parties shared power.

Although the current equation between Congress and UML has raised some hopes, Pokharel says that the first day of government formation has indicated that many expectations will not be fulfilled. He said that when the economic system of the country is weak, investors are discouraged and frustration among the common citizens is increasing, there are also some faces that the citizens do not want to see in the Council of Ministers, so there is a suspicion that the expectations of them will not be met.

"There are accusations that a new alliance was formed overnight after the opening of a large file of corruption and irregularities, the commitment to break it and move forward should have been made on the first day," said Pokharel, "who will guarantee that the trend will not remain the same if the characters change?" It is complicated to amend the constitution with the composition of this equation. The Constitution seeks clarity. Commitment to good governance is sought. A change in trend should now be demonstrated by the work. Not by speaking.' Since

became an equation of two parties, questions have started to arise about its future. Left analyst Jhalak Subedi says that since Oli and Deuba have a common understanding of power and strength, the equation with the Congress will be "comfortable" for Oli. According to him, the job of keeping Deuba and Oli in balance will be that of the 32-seat Maoists who are out of power. He believes that Oli's high ambitions for power will be controlled by the power of the Maoists.

The pressure for Oli is to stay outside the Maoists. Since the Congress and Maoists are on the edge of the sword that can meet at any time, there is a situation where Oli can be restrained and not like before,' says Subedi. Oli has given the sign of search.'

Some leaders of the Congress suspect that Oli used to concentrate all the powers of the state power on himself and that this trend will repeat itself this time. After the election of 074, Oli became the powerful Prime Minister of two-thirds. At that time, Oli revised the division of labor regulations of the government and created dozens of agencies and departments including the Revenue Investigation Department, Asset Laundering Department, National Investigation Department, Attorney General's Office, Planning Commission, National Development Council, Statistics Department, Investment Board, National Vigilance Center, Constitutional Council Secretariat, Poverty Alleviation Fund. brought under him.

analyst Pokharel says that it will only be good if both parties can move forward by accepting each other's existence, purpose and power. He said that the future of the alliance may be questioned again as soon as there is a little bit of tension between the two parties. "This government is not allowed to be viewed in a normal way as it was formed yesterday by including small parties. The failure of this equation means that the leadership of both parties will not only fail, but the system itself will be challenged," says Pokharel.

analyst Subedi says that the issue of constitutional amendment will be challenging for the two parties. Congress and UML have said that the new power equation is not only the government, but also the constitution amendment agenda. In particular, the issue of changing the current election system has been raised in internal meetings of both parties. Reducing the number of people's representatives, making the province agile, reconsidering the constitutional commissions, etc. are being debated on the agenda.

Both the parties have discussed the possibility of forming a commission to find out the errors and amendments of the constitution and make suggestions. However, analyst Subedi argues that even if two-thirds of the government is formed in the House of Representatives, two-thirds of the ruling party in the National Assembly will not reach two-thirds of the ruling party.

Although there is no dispute between the leaders of the two parties regarding constitutional and political appointments, Subedi says that there may be a difference of opinion on the implementation of China's ambitious BRI project. Apart from that, there may be some questions regarding the control over resources and appointment. Otherwise, for Prime Minister Oli, this equation is still workable. Now there is no adverse situation between the two parties in the matter of removing the economic relaxation, protecting the economy from big families, interest centers and middlemen, he said. The issue of power transfer according to the

agreement can sow the seeds of doubt between the two leaders. Because Oli did not leave power according to the agreement in the past, some of the leaders believe that this issue could cause a 'rift' between the two leaders. However, the newly appointed Home Minister and Congress leader Ramesh Ukhtar says that there is no doubt about the transfer of power as there is an agreement that Oli will take the leadership of the government for two years and Deuba for one and a half years.

There is no guarantee whether Sher Bahadurji will get the Prime Ministership or not. But he can compromise on everything except his personal interest to become the Prime Minister. There does not seem to be any problem between the two people in the appointment of the chairman of the Securities Board to the ambassador and the official of the Constitutional Commission. Bhagbanda happened yesterday too. It happens even today," said an official of the Congress, "but the main thing is how much Prime Minister Oli will improve on the past working style and trend, whether he will show the arrogance of power or not. The future of this alliance is determined in that.'

Opposition decisive in the Constitutional Council

In the Constitutional Council recommending the appointment of officials of the constitutional bodies, the ruling party and not the opposition party was decisive. are The Council headed by the Prime Minister consists of six members including the Chief Justice, the Speaker, the leader of the main opposition parties, the Speaker of the National Assembly and the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Among them, the main opposition party is the chairman of Maoist Pushpa Kamal Dahal, while the chairman of the National Assembly Narayan Prasad Dahal is also from the Maoist background. Indira Rana, who is the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, is from the opposition Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RASP) background.

Maoists and RSVP have 'held' a quorum in the Constitutional Council which could upset the Prime Minister. The report of the bill to amend the Act 2066 on the Constitutional Council (Works, Duties, Powers and Procedures), which was unanimously passed by the State System Committee on May 17, is under consideration in the House of Representatives.

In the proposed bill, there is a provision that 'if a decision cannot be reached by consensus, the decision will be made by the majority of the chairman and at least fifty percent of the members currently in office'. If this provision is passed, it is seen that no appointment of any constitutional commission official can be recommended without pleasing the leader of the main opposition party, Dahal. The prime minister is the chairman of the council that recommends the appointment of 31 constitutional commission officials and the chief justice.