By showing limited indicators, Dahal claimed overall economic achievements

Looking only at the indicators presented by the Prime Minister, it seems as if the economy has recovered and now the only thing left to do is to speed it up. But the reality is very different. As the Prime Minister said, economic activity has not become active, nor has the ability of citizens to spend due to increased income.

The condition of industries operating at less than half capacity throughout the year has not improved. Manufacturing productivity is steadily declining. No new jobs have been created. Consumption has decreased. Even the builders who have completed the construction have not been paid. Co-operative and microfinance savers have not got their savings back. There is no improvement at all in terms of revenue and capital expenditure. Interest rates are continuously falling. Even though the interest rate is falling, the bank has accumulated about 8 billion loanable amount. But loan demand has not increased. 46 more loans have been blacklisted in just 11 months of the current financial year due to reduced ability to repay loans. Bad loans of banks are increasing at a high rate. Import and export prices are continuously decreasing. Economists say that this is a sign that the economy is in recession.

But Dahal has claimed that the economic indicators have greatly improved compared to when he was appointed as the Prime Minister for the third time in November 079. "When I took over the leadership of the government, the macroeconomic indicators including the extreme despair caused by the economic crisis, high inflation, low foreign exchange reserves, declining revenue, and excessive public debt were disappointing," he said. Creation, promotion of good governance, improvement and simplification of public service delivery, establishment of citizen-friendly governance system and control of corruption, protection of national interests, etc., the government has passed with good marks in order to be seen and understood by the general public The prime minister claims that the economic index is gradually becoming positive.

Former finance minister Surendra Pandey said that the government cannot analyze the overall economy by showing one or two indicators of the economy. Apart from one or two, other than one or two are in serious condition through various indicators that evaluate the state of the economy. It is not possible to say that the economy has improved by showing only remittances and foreign exchange reserves,' he said. How much is the loan, what kind of problem is the problem of the cooperative, without talking about it, why is he just eating foreign currency because he has foreign exchange reserves?'

Government finances are in deficit. Pandey says that in such a situation, the government is not in a position to invest its money in any project. He alleged that by remaining silent on the other side of this situation, the good indicator is that it has improved due to reasons other than his own policies. Stating that there will be crisis in the economy not only due to the decrease of foreign exchange, but also due to other reasons, he added, "When I was the finance minister, there was a crisis of lack of liquidity in the financial system. Therefore, it cannot be said that the economy has improved if foreign currency is piling up.'

Prime Minister Dahal has said that price inflation has decreased continuously, remittances have increased by a high number, current account and current accounts are in surplus, and foreign exchange reserves have reached 20 trillion. Statistically, the illustration presented by him is correct. But looking only at the numbers, his analysis that the economy has started to improve cannot be considered correct from any angle.

As Prime Minister Dahal said, the foreign exchange reserves in the country until last May are enough to cover 15.1 months of goods and 12.6 months of goods and services imports. Prime Minister Dahal could not foresee that accumulating more foreign currency without being able to spend it would have a negative impact on the country instead of a positive one. Prime Minister Dahal remained silent on the fact that the government had done a good job and the foreign exchange reserves had accumulated a lot.

The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is mainly due to increase in remittances and decrease in imports. During this period, the industrial sector did not import raw materials, machinery tools and construction materials. Citizens have reduced consumption due to income not increasing. In this way, the foreign exchange reserves have been accumulated by shutting down industries, halting construction, and cutting grass by citizens. The government has considered this as a great achievement.

As remittances increase and imports decrease, current account balance and current account balance are also increasing. If the imports had increased, if the citizens had spent enough to feed themselves, these indicators would not have improved. Even now, the confidence of the private sector has not improved. Due to the lack of investment environment, studies have shown that 58 percent of businessmen have postponed their investment plans this year.

In 11 months of this year, only 1 trillion 17 billion rupees have been released for studying abroad. Not only the unemployed youth, but also well-established doctors, engineers, chartered accountants and bankers are migrating abroad this year. Rather than not being able to earn money in Nepal, they left because they did not see a future here. Far from creating new jobs and helping to increase income, this government has also failed in instilling hope in the citizens.

Economist and parliamentarian Swarnim Wagle said that due to increasing remittances, decreased imports, the foreign exchange reserves have improved. It should be seen whether it is due to its own policy or external reasons. But the government has considered the improvement in foreign exchange reserves as satisfactory, he said, adding that economic growth is expected to accelerate. Interest rates have fallen. But the professional confidence is still not strong. More work will be done to increase this.'

Wagle said that the state of government finances is challenging. This year, while the target of revenue is 14 trillion 22 billion, only 10 trillion has been raised. Capital expenditure is also only around 60 percent. There has not been much improvement in the ability to raise revenue and spend capital. There is fear that the current expenditure will also go out of control. The share of debt and interest is also increasing. Overall, a mixed picture of the economy emerges. The external and real sector is improving. But challenges remain in the financial and monetary sector. This government has done two positive things. A good initiative has been taken in the matter of economic governance. In the last 10 years, economic mismanagement was practiced by capturing the regulatory body itself. Now that seems a bit restrained. The next government should also continue that practice. The need and priority of a new phase of economic reform has been pointed out in the second budget. Overall, our challenge is policy implementation. Wagle says that implementation has become more challenging in the chain of misrule.

The government has set a target of increasing revenue by 41 percent this year, but now it has barely achieved 10 percent. Finance Minister Barshman Pun had claimed to increase the revenue by 20 percent in the month he became Finance Minister. During this period, neither the leakages at the customs points have been stopped, nor the illegal activities of transporting money including hundi have been stopped. While the Prime Minister is claiming that the good governance has improved, the government agencies have continued to spend large sums of money at the end of the financial year. This year, only 26 billion rupees have been spent on the 26th day of June. Out of this, one and a half billion rupees have been spent in the last 10 days. Against the trend of spending against the law, the Public Accounts Committee, Finance Committee and the Auditor General's office of the Parliament are raising questions and suggesting improvements, but the ministries are ignoring the spending that is against the law.

As of June 26, the total expenditure of the federal government has been 13 trillion 80 billion rupees. About 13 percent of it, i.e. 1 trillion 77 billion rupees, has been completed on the 27th day of June. As of June 27, the government has spent a total of 1 trillion 78 billion rupees in the capital budget. This is only 59 percent of the target. This year, from June 14 to 25, about 30 billion rupees have been transferred to spend the end of the year. It seems that there is no improvement in the state of government spending, and the trend of cutting checks and giving payments against the rules is encouraged when some people and organizations are not responsible, accountable and punished even if they work against the law. On the whole, experts are of the opinion that this is a lack of financial discipline.

Last May, the country's average inflation rate was 4.17 percent. This is a decrease compared to 7.38 in December 079. But due to the government's policy, the increase in production in the country, the supply being more than the demand, did not reduce the price increase. In fact, the government has no role in bringing down inflation. Due to decrease in price increase in other countries and decrease in domestic demand, the price increase has also decreased.

Prime Minister Dahal considers the economic growth to be almost doubled to 3.87 percent this year from 1.95 percent when he became the prime minister as a great achievement. But according to the National Statistics Office, which prepares the data on economic growth, the growth of the industry and construction sector is negative this year. It is seen that the economic growth rate of Nepal in the current financial year will be much lower than the target as the expansion of the wholesale and retail trade sector is directly linked to the consumption of citizens. "The growth rate has been seen due to good expansion of tourism services, hotels and accommodation, electricity supply, etc.," the report said, "but the growth of the important sectors of the economy - construction, manufacturing is negative, while the growth rate of the business sector is only positive."

Prime Minister Dahal has said that the third investment conference has been completed with a commitment of 6 billion investment. He claims that policy and legal reforms have created an investment-friendly environment. He said that foreign investment has increased by 14.4 percent. In 11 months of the current financial year, out of 54.85 billion 78 billion investment commitments, only 8.16 billion 22 million investments have been received. This data shows that it is not true that more commitment means more investment. Even in India, which is progressing economically, only an average of 25 to 30 percent of the commitment comes. Therefore, the experts argue that it cannot be said that the situation of foreign investment has improved by looking only at the commitment.

The government has also considered the declining interest rate as a factor in its own policy. According to the laws of economics, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate and credit flow. When the interest rate decreases, the loan flow increases, when it increases, it decreases. But as the interest rate is falling in Nepal, the credit has not increased. 8 billion rupees of investable funds have been accumulated in the bank. Saving money in the bank is considered an achievement by the government. By increasing the confidence of investors through the government expenditure increase, the government has not been able to pay any attention to credit expansion.

When Dahal was the prime minister, the real estate was opened to make it viable. On the instructions of the government, the National Bank had introduced a flexible policy for credit expansion in real estate, auto market and stock market. But there is no sign of improvement in these areas.