'Medi Nazar' on Kashmiri vote

It is said that the results of the elections will be held in three phases on September 18, 25 and October 1. After the previous elections in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014, the Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party formed the government. Mehbooba Mufti became the Chief Minister after the death of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed who became the Chief Minister on January 7, 2016.

But on June 19, 2018, governor's rule was imposed in Jammu and Kashmir after the BJP withdrew its support to the government. In November of the same year, Governor Satya Pal Malik dissolved the state assembly. After that, President's Rule was imposed in Jammu and Kashmir from December 20, 2018. With the imposition of President's rule, Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, was repealed.

The Narendra Modi-led BJP government issued the 'Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act' on October 31, 2019, and two union states of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh were arranged. After the bill introduced by Home Minister Amit Shah was passed by the Rajya Sabha on August 5 and the Lok Sabha the next day, the President put the red seal on August 9.

Various cases were filed in the Supreme Court of India against the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act. But the Supreme Court ordered the Election Commission of India to hold elections in Jammu and Kashmir on December 11, 2023, stating that the said Act was compatible with the Constitution.

Jammu and Kashmir has a population of about one and a half million. Kashmir Valley alone has a population of about 7 million. 95 percent of them are Muslims . Hindu-majority Jammu has a population of 5.35 million. 66 percent of them are Hindus. There are 88,600 voters for the upcoming elections. Earlier, a large number of Kashmiris boycotted the elections against the Indian government. But in the parliamentary elections held in April and May, they expressed their "opposition by vote" to the move to abolish state privileges. In the Indian Lok Sabha, 5 members are elected from Jammu and Kashmir. Out of them BJP won 2 seats, National Conference won 2 seats and independent candidate won 1 seat.

In the assembly elections held in 2014, the PDP won 28 seats with 22.7 percent votes and the BJP-led NDA alliance won 25 seats with 23 percent votes. Similarly, Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) won 15 seats and Congress won 12. There are 90 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly.

3 seats have been increased in Jammu and Kashmir which previously had 87 seats. Out of 90 seats, 47 seats are in Kashmir Valley and 43 seats are in Jammu. Thirteen major parties are contesting for the 90-member Assembly. There are 98 candidates including 365 independents in the election field.

The Indian media has mentioned that some of the independent candidates have been fielded by the BJP to split the votes.

NC and PDP are the main political players in Kashmir politics. The Farooq Abdullah-led NC has dominated Kashmir's political landscape for most of the past seven decades. Abdullah family with Nehru-Gandhi family who lead India's main opposition party Congress There is a close relationship . NC is contesting the election along with Congress .

Since 2016, the PDP under the leadership of Mehbooba Mufti has formed an electoral alliance with the BJP. Mufti had earlier become the first woman Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir with the support of the BJP. Established as a political force in 2002, the PDP emerged as the single largest party in the 2014 elections.

But some Kashmiris are unhappy with the party's decision to share power with the BJP. They blame the BJP for the political upheaval in the state. Its results were also reflected in the last parliamentary elections. In the elections, Mufti was defeated by the NC candidate in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency. In the assembly elections, his daughter Iltija Mufti is contesting from her home constituency Srigufwara-Bibehra .

NC has pledged to restore the region's special status and repeal the controversial Public Safety Act (PSA), which detains people without trial. The party has also said that it will grant amnesty to all political prisoners in jail and demand dialogue between India and Pakistan to establish peace.

However, the entry of the banned separatist group Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and the Engineer Rashid-led Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) into the electoral arena is estimated to potentially alter the electoral calculus. Rashid is a controversial politician who spent five years in jail for terrorism.

He was released recently and won the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. He defeated senior NC leader Omar Abdullah. JI's participation is seen by some as a breakthrough for the Indian state, which some claim has integrated groups that once advocated the merger of Kashmir with Pakistan or its independence.

The BJP, which is trying to make political inroads into the Kashmir Valley, has a strong presence in the Hindu-majority southern region of Jammu. BJP has been claiming that 'terrorism' has been eradicated from this area.

Last Saturday, Indian Prime Minister Modi addressed party supporters in Doda, Jammu and said that terrorism has been defeated in Jammu and Kashmir. This is a new era of progress. "Terrorism is at its last stage here," Modi said, "Stones that were used to attack the army and police in the past are being used to build a new Jammu and Kashmir."

Modi and his party BJP have been claiming that with the establishment of Jammu and Kashmir as a union state, rapid economic growth and peace have been achieved in the state. As the elections are approaching, there has been an increase in incidents of fighting between security forces and insurgents in Jammu and Kashmir.

Jammu region, not traditionally known for armed attacks in the past, has seen a slight increase in such incidents. Since 2021, 124 security personnel have lost their lives in Jammu and Kashmir. At least 51 of them died in Jammu. According to the Indian Army, two soldiers were killed in Jammu last Friday.

It is estimated that the BJP, which has nominated 19 candidates, will not win any seats in the Kashmir region. In the Jammu region, BJP is expected to win most of the seats. BJP has fielded candidates in all 43 seats in Jammu.

BJP has put forward 25 agendas in the elections. Most of them are focused on women, youth, Kashmiri Pandits . Similarly, BJP has also put forward a plan to build a temple and remove terrorism. BJP has mentioned in its election manifesto that it will provide 18,000 Indian rupees to the elderly women of every household under the 'Ama Samman' program.

BJP's election manifesto has been welcomed by the 'Global Kashmiri Pandit Diaspora (GKPD)'. Writing a letter to BJP president JP Nadda, GKPD has supported the BJP's manifesto.

Kashmir's mainstream political parties have vowed to fight for full statehood and restoration of special status. They say that the assembly has been weakened as a municipality. Former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has said that the new Chief Minister has to request the 'Lieutenant Governor' appointed by New Delhi to have an office assistant.

In an interview published in The Print, he said that the BJP-led government has "confined Kashmir to a narrow circle and all Kashmiris are political prisoners of Delhi". Last July, Modi's government limited the powers of the state assembly and handed over the responsibilities of police control, maintaining the rule of law and transfer of officers to the lieutenant governor.

Similarly, it has been arranged that the Assembly cannot make laws on education, marriage, taxes, property, forests, etc. New Delhi-based writer and educationist Radha Kumar has said that the powers given to the lieutenant governor are "absurd". "I expect both the new assembly and the elected administration to be more vocal on human rights issues," she told Al Jazeera.

The release of young people who are kept in jails in different places of India is an important issue for Kashmiris. Similarly, the increasing problem of drug abuse and unemployment are the challenges of the new government. However, politicians have failed to deliver on their promises in the past and voters are not enthusiastic.

After the independence of India and Pakistan in 1947, Muslim-majority Kashmir is divided. 77 years since then, Kashmir is one of the main reasons for the conflict between India and Pakistan. Both the countries that are ruling the divided territory of Kashmir claim that all the territory belongs to them.

The rebels who have been struggling in Kashmir have been demanding that Kashmir should be independent or merge with Pakistan. India accuses Pakistan of supporting militants active in Kashmir and that they are attacking its territory. But Pakistan has been denying it .

The two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbors have repeatedly fought wars for control over Kashmir. Tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers have lost their lives due to the war between the two countries and the active armed rebellion for the independence of Kashmir.

(with the help of agencies)