A shrunken Modi looks at Nepal

After the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a majority in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections in India, Modi will become the Prime Minister for the third time. In the previous two elections, the BJP alone had a majority. This time BJP could not get majority. However, it is certain that Modi will become the Prime Minister after the meeting held on Wednesday of the parties affiliated to the NDA unanimously elected Modi as the leader. Modi will become the second person in India to become the Prime Minister for the third time after winning three consecutive elections. Earlier, the record was in the name of Jawaharlal Nehru.

Prime Minister Dahal is scheduled to go to Delhi on Sunday. On the same day at 7 pm, there is an oath-taking ceremony at the President's Office. Modi, as before, has invited the heads of government of neighboring countries to his swearing-in ceremony. In addition to Nepal, the government/head of state of Bangladesh, Maldives, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Mauritius and Seychelles are scheduled to participate in the swearing-in ceremony. According to Indian media, invitations have also been sent to Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Bhutan Prime Minister Chiring Tobge and Mauritius Prime Minister Parvind Jagannath.

Prime Minister Modi will hold separate bilateral meetings with foreign heads of government after taking oath. Modi is also scheduled to meet Prime Minister Dahal at Rashtrapati Bhavan. The program will end after participating in the dinner organized there. Prime Minister Dahal is also scheduled to hold side-line meetings with heads of other countries who attended the swearing-in ceremony. Foreign Secretary Seva Lamsal, some foreign officials and Prime Minister's daughter Ganga Dahal along with officials and security officers of the private secretariat will be participating in Dahal's India visit team.

When Modi became Prime Minister for the first time in 2014, then Prime Minister Sushil Koirala from Nepal participated in the swearing-in ceremony. For the second time, the then Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli went from Nepal to the swearing-in ceremony of 2019.

Modi, who visited Nepal three times (including the 18th SAARC Summit) in his first term, visited twice in his second term. Modi, who made BJP leader Sushma Swaraj the foreign minister in the first term, made S. Jaishankar, who came from the bureaucracy, as the foreign minister in the second term. Sushma used to be sensitive towards her neighbours, despite that, India imposed a blockade when Nepal promulgated its constitution in 2015.

After Jaishankar became Foreign Minister in Modi's second program, he started to give more importance to other countries of the world apart from the neighborhood. India raised its voice saying that it is the leader of the 'Global South' and also held the G-20 conference in New Delhi.

Now the election results of India and the developing events are being watched closely in Nepal as well. There is more interest here in how Modi's Nepal policy will be when he is leading a coalition government from a single majority rule. Since the Ministry of Foreign Affairs could not hold a balanced diplomatic dialogue on the border issue with Nepal, both countries had to draw different maps. In addition, the problem of recruitment of Agniveer soldiers brought by the Modi government for four years has not been resolved so far due to the continued participation of Nepalese in Gorkha soldier recruitment.

During the previous ten years of Modi's rule, Delhi has been criticized for looking at the relationship with Nepal from a strategic angle similar to that of other countries, forgetting the historical and social aspects. Analysts and ex-diplomats who are well-versed in Nepal affairs in India have called such a view of Delhi as flawed. This has weakened the historical relationship between Nepal and India and they have commented that administrative leadership is more dominant than political.

Former Ambassador Vijayakanth Karna believes that the results of India's Lok Sabha elections are a very good mandate for democracy in India. "Since the opposition party has more than 230 seats in the parliament, it is now a good parliamentary practice," he said. Therefore, the current result is good for democracy.'

Former Foreign Secretary Madhurman Acharya says that even if the new coalition government comes, there will not be much change in Nepal's policy as Indians will act in the national interest. Again, Modi is becoming the Prime Minister. There is not much difference in Nepal's policy," he said, "but now the Prime Minister of India has to focus on himself. If there is any problem in the alliance, we should get involved in internal matters. He said that it will be important who the foreign minister comes to India.

Geopolitical expert Chandradev Bhatt says that even though there have been blockades and map problems between Nepal and India in the last 10 years, there is dialogue between the political parties. Before Modi came, there was a relationship between Nepal and India at the level of bureaucracy and agencies. But after the arrival of Modi, despite the ups and downs in relations, meetings and dialogues have started at the political level," he said. "Recently, India has been cooperating in various aspects including development, construction, energy trade, border check posts, roads, and petroleum pipelines in Nepal."  ;

Political science professor Meena Vaidya Mall believes that the BJP's lack of majority in India sends a message that nothing stays the same. "In the current situation, the internal policy of any country affects the external policy, and the external policy also affects the internal policy," she said.

From overwhelming majority to full coalition

10 years ago, Modi left Gujarat Chief Minister and came to New Delhi. At that time, he became the Prime Minister after the famous leaders of BJP, LK Advani, Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and others. Amid criticism from Anna Hazare's hunger strike and other quarters for irregularities, corruption and instability in the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), the BJP easily won a majority in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Talking about the 'Gujarat Model', Modi won the hearts of voters by raising the slogan of 'Congress-free India'.

In 2014, BJP won 283 seats. That was 11 seats more than needed for a majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha. After two terms of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Indian voters gave BJP a majority for the first time. Before starting his first term, Modi invited neighboring governments/heads of state to his swearing-in ceremony. What it would indicate is that Modi wants to give priority to neighborhood relations. His slogan was, 'Neighbourhood first policy'.

BJP became more powerful by winning 303 seats in 2019. In the same force, Modi amended Article 370 of the Constitution and separated Ladakh and brought the state of Jammu and Kashmir into the Centrally Administered Territory (Union Territory). Kisan Andolan, Agniveer four years of military recruitment, high prices, unemployment, caste and religious rifts started raising questions on the BJP government. That is why the BJP, which claimed to win more than 400 seats, was reduced to 240 seats.

NDA has won 293 seats this time. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by Chandrababu Naidu in the NDA alliance has 16 seats, the Janata Dal United (JDU) led by Nitish Kumar has 12 seats and the Lok Janshakti Party led by Ram Vilas Paswan's son Chirag Paswan has 5 seats. Now, when Modi decides on any issue in New Delhi, he will have to discuss with partner parties including Naidu from South India's Andhra Pradesh and Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan from Bihar, which borders Nepal.

In the previous two terms, Modi, who did not consult NDA leaders on any issue and did not call NDA meetings, is being watched with interest as to how he will sustain the government. After the election results, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's press advisor and journalist Sanjay Baru wrote in 'The Tribune' magazine, 'Modi's major political contribution in 2014 was to revive the BJP. Modi's greatest political contribution in 2024 is the revival of the Indian National Congress.

Baru mentioned Rahul Gandhi's 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' and Mallikarjun Khadge's mature and wise leadership in the Congress. Baru, who wrote the book 'The Accidental Prime Minister' on former Prime Minister Singh, said Modi's second term policy, his divisive and grassroots campaign played a role in reviving the fortunes of the Congress.