There is also an 'anti-incumbency' among voters against Yadav, who has been winning elections continuously. 'Anti-incumbency' and the fact that the indigenous votes are divided among many candidates and the Muslim community has lost its previous grip seems to have increased the challenge of Mahindra Yadav. There are also complaints against Mahato for repeatedly taking advantage of power by raising Madhesh issues.
What you should know
Rajendra Mahato and Mahindra Ray Yadav are the two candidates who have been contesting elections in Sarlahi since 2001. Mahato, who started his political career with the Madhesh issue, started his electoral journey with the Nepal Sadbhavana Party. Yadav, on the other hand, emerged from communist politics.
In the first election after the restoration of democracy, Yadav was a candidate from Constituency No. 1 from the CPN (Democratic). He came fourth after the Congress, UML and Sadbhavana.
Mahato was a candidate from Constituency No. 2 from Sadbhavana. He came second when Meena Pandey of the Congress won the election. Yadav, who stood up from UML in 051, won. Mahato won in 056 on his third attempt. Mahato and Yadav's constituencies were different in the 048, 051 and 056 elections. The new delimitation in 064 merged their villages into one constituency number 4. At that time, Yadav supported Mahato by sitting in proportional representation from Tamlopa. The Madhesh movement was raging, and Mahato, the chairman of the Sadbhavana Party, won. The two faced each other for the first time in the second Constituent Assembly elections of 2070. Yadav, who had been carrying the Madhesh issue through communist politics, was the chairman of the Terai Madhesh Sadbhavana Party. He contested from Sarlahi-4. Mahato refused to leave the constituency as he had won it earlier. Yadav won by a margin of more than 3,000 votes over Mahato.
In the delimitation of the constituencies in 2074, Mahato and Yadav's constituencies ended up being Sarlahi 2. Both were affiliated with the same party, the Rastriya Janata Party. Both had to stand, but the constituency became the same. Mahato was defeated in Janakpur. On the other hand, he entered parliament by defeating Congress leader Bimalendra Nidhi. Yadav was safe from Sarlahi 2. He also won the election and reached parliament. When the 2079 elections came, Mahato returned to Sarlahi. Yadav contested from Sarlahi 2 under the election symbol of the CPN (Maoist Center), while Mahato contested from the Democratic Socialist Party. Mahato lost by a margin of 2,000 votes. It was his second defeat against Yadav.
This time, Yadav is a candidate from the Nepali Communist Party and the Rastriya Mukti Party led by Mahato himself. Yadav is raising the voice that the achievements of the Constituent Assembly should be institutionalized and that the opponents of the change should not be allowed to raise their heads. Mahato said that he will always fight on the issue of Madhesh and is emphasizing the issue of Madhesh. He is trying to attract voters by making the issue of the rights and identity of Madhesh, Tharu, Janajati, and Muslims the main basis, saying that he will always raise it.
Yadav has been a member of parliament continuously since 2051. Mahato, on the other hand, has entered parliament three times by winning elections from 056 and 064 (Sarlahi) and 074 (Janakpur). Many people who contested the election 34 years ago in 2048 BS are not seen in the election contest now. Apart from Mahato and Yadav, former minister Rameshwor Ray Yadav is a candidate from the Janata Samajwadi Party in Sarlahi-4. These three were also candidates in 2048 BS and are still candidates.
Manjur Mikrani, a lawyer in Malangwa, says that even old leaders want to get their approval from voters when new and changing political agendas are being formed. A voter of Constituency No. 2, he said that there is competition here between the old and experienced in politics and the new generation. 88-year-old Yadav and 67-year-old Mahato have been challenged by 44-year-old Dr. Saroj Kumar Ray from the Congress and 38-year-old candidate Rabin Mahato from the Rastriya Swatantra Party. Both Ray and Yadav are contesting for the first time. Ray is the acting district president of the Congress.
Here, the candidate has the strength of his own caste votes, apart from the party's organization and personal connections. Yadav, who has won consecutive elections, is considered a big challenge to his own caste candidates. Congress candidate Dr. Rai has increased his concerns. His group is worried that Mahato may benefit from the division of caste votes. Congress is strong in terms of organization in this area. Two provincial MPs and the heads and presidents of all 8 municipalities in this area have won from Congress. Congress provincial MP Kaushal Kishore Rai says that they will win because they are organizationally strong. He claimed that the Congress candidate, who wants change, is young and new, which has attracted voters.
Advocate Mikrani says that there is a four-way competition in this area. He analyzes that there is an election clash between Yadav of the NCP, Mahato of Ramupa, Rai of the Congress and Mahato of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh candidate is a new name in politics. However, he is ahead in the election wave and popular vote. The party does not have an organization. The candidate is also not well-known among the voters. However, he is in good news. Santosh Jayajwal, a businessman from Malangwa Bazaar, says that the youth and market air are in his favor. The RSP candidate is well-known for expressing such feelings and thinking, "How many times will I vote for the old one?" He said, "But, since he is facing a party organization and old and experienced players in politics, how much can the RSP win with popular vote alone? Only the results will show that." The same-caste votes will be divided between Mahendra and Saroj and between Rajendra and Rabin. Jayaswal said that it is difficult to determine whose side this will bring in the results.
Former teacher Brajendra Yadav says that the presence of the RSP has made the competition in this area four-sided, unlike the bilateral or tripartite competition in other areas. ‘Looking at the results of the local elections and the provinces, the Congress is organizationally strong. However, it cannot be assumed that the situation is the same as during the previous elections,’ he said. ‘Like elsewhere, the good wind of the wind and the bell is blowing here too. How many votes that wind carries will determine the result.’
The votes of Yadav and non-Yadav will be divided in the area. At such a time, the Muslim votes, which number 15 to 18 thousand, are considered decisive here. Krishna Yadav, who is a candidate from the Nepali Party for Nepal, is in the election fray with the issue of a Hindu nation.
The Muslim community seems to be in a wait-and-see mood regarding the new party’s ideology on religious freedom. It seems that all candidates and parties are trying to please the Muslim voters who are considered decisive.
In the past, Mahindra Yadav used to get the majority of the Muslim votes. Local journalist Bakhtiyar Ali says that whoever gets the most Muslim votes has a chance of winning. ‘There are political workers from the Muslim community in all parties. They are trying to get votes for the party candidates in their own way,’ said journalist Ali. ‘The votes cast by Muslim voters who have not directly joined the party will be decisive.’
‘Anti-incumbency’ has also been seen among the voters against Yadav, who has been winning elections continuously. ‘Anti-incumbency’ and the fact that the ethnic votes are being divided among many candidates and the Muslim community has lost its previous grip seems to have increased Mahindra Yadav’s challenge. There are also complaints against Mahato that he has repeatedly taken advantage of power by raising Madhesh issues.
In addition, the caste and community votes that come to him are being divided among many candidates. Stating that four candidates are in the competition, journalist Ali also says that many ‘factors’ will work until the day before the voting and it is impossible to predict whose side the result will be in.
