This year's monsoon brought unexpected heavy rains towards the end of October, causing huge financial losses. Even though the weather should be clear, it has rained heavily for two consecutive years at the same time, causing loss of life and property. However, the government has been proactive in minimizing potential damage.

Kulchandra Neupane's conversation with Bibhuti Pokharel, senior meteorologist and spokesperson of the Department of Water and Meteorology, Kulchandra Neupane : Is it a normal process or is it related to climate change? is not something that happens during monsoon. The way it was active towards the end, extending until October or Dasain in Nepali terms, we can also see it connected with climate change. It is our systems that make rains come early and late, and 'trigger' the cycles of the seasons. Like a

- it was assumed that this year's monsoon will have more rain. However, July turned out to be very dry. There was a long break. After that, something became active. But this activity was not seen. Generally speaking, July and August are when the monsoon should be active. In the language we understand, we associate monsoon with agriculture. But this time the cycle was broken. Monsoon became active at the time of Dasain without being in the normal process. 

Can it be understood as climate change?

As Dasain approaches, we used to understand that the monsoon is over and the atmosphere is stable. But this time there was a pattern of being active for a few weeks and then breaking again in the monsoon which was broken. This low pressure line comes northwards bringing rain and gradually spreads southwards over India. The longer the break, the drier the terrain. The heavy rains this time cannot be considered just part of the normal weather process.

is traditionally active during monsoon June and July and is expected to clear during Dasain. However, lately, there has been a change in the monsoon cycle. This can be seen in relation to the effect of change. The current rainfall is different from the normal monsoon process as such intensity is not expected towards the end of the monsoon. Climate change has also brought about irregularity in the weather system, leading to extremes such as delayed rainfall, prolonged droughts and sudden heavy downpours.

How have you analyzed this change seen in the monsoon cycle?

Monsoon is usually active in July and August, which is important for Nepal's agriculture and other sectors. However, this year there was a drought in July and monsoon activity was relatively low. At the end of October, it suddenly rained heavily. This change indicates irregularity in the dynamics of monsoon low pressure line. When this line moves north it brings rain in Nepal and when it moves south it brings rain in India. This should also be seen from the perspective of climate change.

How does climate change affect monsoons?

Climate change does not create new weather systems but affects the regular cycles of existing systems. There has been a change in the timing, intensity and duration of monsoons. Climate change will 'trigger' extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts and sudden heavy rains. Although it is normal to have heavy rains in monsoon, it is not normal to be very active in July and August and to be active and heavy rains during the withdrawal of monsoon. This affects our traditional crops and other sectors as well.

You already predicted the highest rainfall this year, didn't you?

Yes, we predicted above-average rainfall when forecasting the monsoon. However, prolonged drought occurred in July and monsoon activity was less active in August as well. At the end of October there was unexpectedly heavy rain. Normally monsoons provide regular rainfall but this year saw fragmented and erratic rainfall, which is associated with the effects of climate change. 

Where and how has this heavy rain at the end of October affected?

Heavy rains on October 18 and 19 affected Bagmati and Madhesh provinces the most. Koshi, Lumbini and eastern parts of Gandaki states have also been affected. Notably, Maheshpur in Rautahat recorded 358 mm of rainfall, the highest of the period.

Last year, it rained around this time, causing even greater loss of wealth. What are the similarities between the previous year's rain and the current one?

Both years saw unexpectedly heavy rainfall towards the end of the monsoon, which damaged agriculture. However, the weather systems of these two years are different. Last year's rainfall was caused by a combination of low pressure systems and other weather effects while this year's rainfall is mainly associated with low pressure areas. However, both events indicate that climate change is increasing extreme weather events. Climate change has affected the monsoon trough, which has led to changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall.

What challenges do you think climate change will add to weather forecasting?

The dynamics of weather systems change unpredictably, which means that forecasts cannot be 100 percent accurate. For example, heavy rains were predicted for October 18 and 19 this year. It happened accordingly. 

In order to prevent huge financial loss due to disaster, one has to rely on the 'Red Alert' notice of the Department of Water and Meteorology. How scientific is our system compared to other countries?

Meteorological technology is not entirely sufficient. Studying and forecasting complex weather systems is a subject of research and interest not only in Nepal but also globally. Due to climate change, such systems now have to be studied globally. Currently, we do not have long-term data for upper atmosphere data and climate studies in the Himalayan region.

What is happening in the upper climate zone? What is happening in the mountains? Data from the Himalayan terrain is important to understand how future climate systems are changing. To know all these we need high tech equipment. It's not that the tools aren't there, but they are very expensive to maintain. In the data of the Himalayan region, we were ahead of China and India, but now we are lagging behind.

The government did everything from declaring a national holiday to closing highways in anticipation of heavy rains. Didn't that create a bit of a panic?

Unexpected changes in weather systems can sometimes be unpredictable. Because, the complexity of weather systems and the impact of climate change sometimes overestimates. We also take care not to spread too much panic during forecasting. Even if there is an incident, we do not go public immediately until we have a strong basis for it. The reason is that unnecessary fear should not spread. The main responsibility of the department is to monitor such systems and provide official information.

Now how can the impact of climate change be minimized?

It is not possible to completely prevent the effects of climate change, but its effects can be minimized. Strengthening early warning systems, investing in state-of-the-art technology and preparing communities for disaster management are important tasks. The Department of Water and Meteorology has emphasized on disaster preparedness. The government and other agencies can make the relief and rescue operations effective based on the information of the department. It is the responsibility of the government to make preparations to prevent disaster.

Disaster can be saved only by giving correct information, what are the challenges facing the department for that? The

department is making the most of limited resources and technology. The employees of the department work round the clock even during festivals like Dasain, but due to lack of manpower and technology, it is difficult to make the work effective. Weather forecasting is based on technology.

When you report the weather forecast, sometimes rain means sunny days and clear weather means rainy days, right?

We don't have that sophisticated, 'accurate' technology. Not only in our country, the fluctuations in the overall weather system has become a subject of study and research. This situation has arisen due to climate change. It has affected everyone globally. Sometimes things happen faster than we think. This time too, it was expected to rain more from Sunday to Monday, but the situation was different due to the rapid change in the weather.