(Candidates for the 21st Falgun election are reaching out to the public with their manifestos. They are presenting their agenda. At this time, Kantipur is launching a special series ‘Kantipur Debate: Citizens’ Manifesto’ to present the people’s agenda to parties and candidates. You too can write a manifesto for this series, focusing on a specific area. We will give space to manifestos that are based on facts, figures, and logic.)

The Sinking Ship of Humanity 

June 14, 2023. A large fishing boat was sinking in the Mediterranean Sea, between Africa and Europe. It was estimated that there were between 400 and 750 migrants on board. All but 104 of them drowned. More than 200 of the dead were Pakistanis. 

It was not a major disaster at sea in history. It was neither the first nor the last time that people from Africa had died in the Mediterranean Sea. However, it was different from all the previous disasters for one reason: the Greek Coast Guard was nearby as the ship sank. For hours before the ship sank, news of its possible disaster had been coming to the media around the world, and many people were aware of it. Among them were the families of those who were on the verge of death.

In other words, it was not an accident that took place in a deserted sea, behind the scenes of time and geography. Millions knew that hundreds of people were drowning. All the governments of Europe knew. The world powers, the US and China, certainly knew. If they had wanted to, Greece or any other European country could have easily saved everyone on that boat in time. But they decided not to. 

The decision to make it possible after so many casualties was discussed and debated for some time. But then another accident or development caught everyone's attention, and those who drowned with the Adriana became anonymous. To this day, it is not even certain how many died in that way, let alone who and how many of them were identified. The parents and children of many of them must still be waiting for them, because such news does not reach them quickly, especially in poor and conflict-ridden societies without access to the internet. 

I think Adriana's tragedy is a good illustration of the point where the entire human race is heading as the climate crisis engulfs it. If the Earth's biosphere (the small area from the ground to the upper atmosphere, where life is possible) is Adriana, then its sinking has already begun. The news of this is, in a way, all over the world. There are videos everywhere of the displacement, death and killing caused by many natural disasters and conflicts exacerbated by the climate crisis. Many people who are still alive are witnessing this process, but they are either not doing anything, or are not in a position to do anything, to stop this catastrophe or slow its pace.

And before our eyes, the entire human civilization is rapidly heading towards destruction. But we are almost oblivious to all this, because like Adriana drowning in the distant Mediterranean Sea, this catastrophe is also going on in the background. There are many other scenes on stage that are spicy and sensational, interesting, 'thrilling'. The scoundrels are making dirty jokes. The rich are making obscene displays of their immense wealth. And we, the world citizens of the technological age, are all entertained by endless games, reels and videos. For us, the impending doom is nothing, but a conspiracy theory started by some devious scoundrel is everything.

Election on a sinking ship

As the 2082 general election approaches in Nepal, it seems as if the consciousness of many of Nepal's main political figures begins and ends with the aforementioned sensational jokes and scoundrels. The roar of a terrible crisis deepening in the background is probably beyond their hearing frequency. If there is no awareness of the crisis, there is no way to have a meaningful debate and discussion about it, or to prepare to deal with it. This is a frightening situation. Therefore, beyond the political victories and squabbles, there is no alternative but to raise our voice about this environmental crisis that threatens our very existence at the civil level. 

Not only in Nepal but also in the entire Himalayas, snow is melting. Glaciers are shrinking and disappearing. As the groundwater table moves down, the land is sinking. The atmosphere is becoming like a toxic gas chamber. From villages and cities to forests, weeds are rampant. Even the existing forests are turning into green deserts. The soil is becoming so toxic that the havoc of cancer is spreading from village to village. There is extreme uncertainty about the future of our agriculture, tourism and hydropower based on the Himalayan watershed in the next decade or so. Already, our dependence on food is frightening. There is a fear that if there is a global economic downturn and remittances decline, the entire economy will collapse. 

As I write these lines, the parties are busy writing their manifestos. He is sure to bring ambitious plans to transform the country's economy. There is also a competition to see who is less likely to dream big. But no one seems ready to have an honest debate on the ground where those plans and dreams stand. 

Whose priority will be to eliminate air pollution, which kills around 42,000 Nepalis prematurely every year? Even if someone writes a line, what is the plan to put it into practice? Who has a practical plan to make agriculture sustainable in the Madhesh region, which has been devastated by a single year of drought? Who has a roadmap to change the form of an economy based on exploitation? Who is putting forward an alternative to living on dying soil? And, most importantly, which political party is ready to question, honestly review, and find an alternative to the so-called development model based on monotonous exploitation so far? Who has the strength to question the method of dredging rivers and streams, making drone videos of it, and claiming that there was a flood of development?

The crisis has entered the door 

In this month of Magh, a news report came from the National News Committee: An epidemic in the forests of Dang, trees that looked like they were on fire. Shortly before that, there were nationwide protests in Iran, which were brutally suppressed by the authorities there. During that time, at least 5,200 people have been confirmed to have been killed, and health workers who have witnessed the state's brutality by serving in hospitals have estimated that up to 30,000 Iranians may have been killed across the country. Even before these two news reports came out, India has been closing its borders by declaring immigrants and even its own citizens as 'illegal'. Among them, 40 Rohingya refugees who had come to India to escape ethnic cleansing in Burma were even thrown into the middle of the sea by being put on a boat.

At first glance, these three seem like three unrelated news stories. But if you look closely, all three have one thing in common: there is a terrible environmental crisis in the background. As the day approaches when the entire aquifer in Iran will run dry, Tehran, home to 10 million people, has become a shambles. Every environmental crisis I mentioned above for Nepal is ten times more severe in India than it is here. In Nepal, the atmosphere, water, and land are unable to withstand the blows from all three sides, and even trees are dying in the warming climate. While humans have been suffering from climate change for the last 200,000 years on Earth, trees have been enduring climate change for millions of years, digesting it, and developing adaptations for themselves. 

If this crisis is not resolved in time in Nepal too, it is clear: Here too, a brutal and barbaric regime like Iran's Yayatollahs or India's Modis will come, democracy will be limited in name only, the scale of conflict and violence will increase to unimaginable levels, and in the end, instead of solving the problem, the rulers will wipe out citizens to protect their rule, like in Iran.

What should the manifesto be? 

As illiteracy on climate issues is prevalent in Nepal, the official documents of political parties should openly understand the seriousness of the crisis on this issue. For that, people who stopped serious study twenty years ago and can only see the world today through the glasses they wore at that time should stay away from writing manifestos. The irony of Nepal is that the old political parties are accustomed to seeing the world through such outdated glasses, and the situation of new political parties and even the youth of all parties is no different.

The understanding that development means glitzy buildings and wide roads filled with crafts like in Europe or America of the last century has made the leaders and activists of all political parties crazy. The physical development that China has done in the last half century has become a model for everyone. But the terrible environmental disaster China has suffered in the meantime, and the success it has achieved in cleaning up the gas chamber-like atmosphere of cities like Shanghai and Beijing, and the drastic steps it has taken to do so, are not under debate anywhere in Nepal. 

The 2016 Paris Climate Agreement promised to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. With that disastrous goal achieved in 2025, 75 years ahead of schedule, climate scientists and activists are now in a state of crisis. Scientists say that the rising temperatures are on the verge of disrupting the ocean currents (the Gulf Stream or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), which cover about two-thirds of the Earth's latitude. That single development would be enough to forever change the climate of billions of people in Africa, Europe, and the Americas. This would mean that the nature of the weather would change, hot places would get hotter, cold places would get colder, the vicious cycle of floods and droughts would be exacerbated, crop cycles would be disrupted, and billions of people would be facing starvation.

According to a ‘climate model’ included in a scientific journal published in the ‘Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences’ in 2020, by 2070 the annual average temperature of a large part of the Earth would be as high as the current temperature in the middle of the Sahara Desert. That is double the current global annual average temperature, or 29 degrees Celsius. The condition for this is that the growth rate of carbon emissions remains the same as it is now. In the six years since the journal was published, the growth rate of carbon emissions has increased relatively, and there is no sign of a decrease. 

In that case, the land on Earth, where 3.5 billion people live, would be as hot as the middle of the Sahara and life would be impossible there. In other words, almost one-third of the Earth’s population would have been displaced from their homes before 2070. Of those 3.5 billion, nearly one billion will be displaced from our three neighboring countries (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh). Today, when the displacement of a few million people in the world is such a chaotic situation and the entire societies of Europe and North America have become unstable, it is scary to imagine the scale of political turmoil, violence, and authoritarianism that would be institutionalized if billions of people were displaced from their homes.

In my opinion, instead of sharing hundreds of dreams that are guaranteed to never come true in the manifestos of the parties, this harsh reality should come out with statistics. So that the society that is reeling before falling off the cliff should wake up once and for all. Let it understand the seriousness of the problem and start to face it firmly.

Concrete environmental measures

The intervention that Nepal as a country can make in any of the aforementioned developments that are seriously disrupting the Earth's 'biosphere' is negligible. Even though Nepal is at the top of the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change, our total and per capita carbon emissions are low. That is why I have heard the argument in dozens of forums that Nepal does not need to worry about this issue. Even school students have asked me, ‘How can we develop if we love the environment?’

The answer to such questions that I always give is the same: Nepal cannot do anything to stop the rise in global temperatures, but it can and should do a lot to save the lives of its citizens in a warming world. I have also asked some counter-questions to those who ask such questions: If the watershed of the Terai dries up, will the Nepalis be displaced or will the British be displaced by burning coal? If Nepal becomes a gas chamber, will the 42,000 or so people who die prematurely every year due to air pollution be Nepalese or will the Americans, who emit the most carbon in history, be displaced if the water sources around Kathmandu dry up?

Therefore, while linking these issues to the elections, we need to be clear about some things. If a Nepali political party writes in its manifesto that it will work to reduce the average global temperature, it is a windy thing. But if it writes that it will reduce the amount of PM 2.5, a measure of air pollution, in Kathmandu to such and such a level in such and such a year, it is a responsible thing. If it says that it will make Kathmandu a city of bicycles in a year, it is a windy thing.

However, if it says that it will develop bicycle-friendly infrastructure and make a city where bicycles are widely used in half a decade, it is a responsible thing. There may not be such a seriousness in building a metro or monorail for Kathmandu immediately, but it is both possible and necessary to 'overhaul' public transport in the valley in a year and a half. Banning private vehicles to reduce the city's gridlock may be impractical and counterproductive, but many cities around the world have proven that the option of developing public transport that eliminates the need for private vehicles works. 

Hydropower, which has good potential in Nepal, is a good part of renewable energy. But the long-term future of this energy is now in doubt due to the turmoil brought about by the climate crisis, snowfall turning into rain, shrinking glaciers, the Mahabharata region's watershed being disrupted by chaotic development, and landslides that occur every year. Meanwhile, the falling cost and price of solar energy will continue and no other form of energy will be able to compete with it in the future. Therefore, there is a lot that Nepal can and must do in the field of energy security.

Ambitious but possible future 

Now let's see, if a 'visionary' leader were in Nepal in this situation, what development plan could he have brought and implemented? 

A plan can be brought to all urban areas and highways connecting major cities in the country that solves many problems at once: Wide roads but limited lanes for vehicles. Wide lanes for bicycles only. The solar panels on their roofs, which provide cyclists with water and coolness from the sun throughout the day, provide energy to the entire city. If people are in a hurry or have to travel long distances, they take large public buses, or else they ride bicycles comfortably.

In this way, people's transportation expenses are reduced by more than 90 percent. The import of petroleum and the trade deficit it creates are reduced in the same proportion. The import of cars and motorcycles is reduced in the same proportion, and the money to buy them also stays in the country. With the widespread practice of cycling and walking, the obesity epidemic and the diseases it creates are reduced, and people's medical expenses are greatly reduced. With the reduction of accidents, there is additional protection for public property.

In a country where those who confiscate and illegally auction bicycles of the poor, steal their fruits and goods, and beat garbage collectors to death are made heroes, it is natural that such things seem impractical and imaginary. But many countries, including South Korea, have built road infrastructure that allows people to cycle for hundreds of kilometers without the need for solar panels. Countries like Kenya, which are becoming barren due to the climate crisis, have used translucent solar panels, which protect crops from burning and provide clean energy throughout the day. China has done wonders in the fields of green energy, bicycle use, and public transportation.