The House of Representatives elections held on 21 Falgun changed the political map of Nepal. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) won 125 out of 165 direct seats, a dominance never seen before in the history of Nepal's parliamentary elections. However, this is not just a victory for one party.

It is also a story of the defeat of the established political forces that have dominated the country's politics for three decades. Let us look at this story of victory and defeat through election statistics.

The graph below shows how the party representation of directly elected members of parliament in the House of Representatives has changed in the last three elections. The dominance of the UML and the Maoists in 2074, a colorful parliament with no party in majority in 2079, and a parliament filled with the 'brand color' of the single party, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), in 2082. These three graphs show the story of Nepal's political change in a single flash. 

This change did not come suddenly. Its foundation was laid in 2079. When the number of seats won by the Congress, UML, and the Maoists in 2074 was put together, it was about 85 percent of the seats in the direct elections. These parties considered themselves to be invincible, they would run the government in turns. They would form and break alliances. Although there was no immediate major threat from other parties, the people had started to express their distrust towards these parties.

As a result, the seats won directly by the three parties in 2079 fell to about 70 percent, 15 percentage points less than the previous time. Now, in 2082, their combined seats have fallen to 21 percent. During the same period, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has increased from 5 percent to 76. The two lines pointing in opposite directions in the chart below depict the most dramatic electoral transfer of power in Nepal's political history.

The graph above depicts the combined decline of the three parties. However, each of the three parties has its own story of defeat. UML was at a peak of 80 seats in 2074, 42 in 2079, and fell to just 9 in 2082. That is, a 90 percent decline in 8 years. The Congress made little progress, rising to 53 seats in 2079 but shrinking to 19 in 2082. The CPN (then Maoist) fell from 37 to 17 to 7. Moreover, the current CPN is a party formed by the unity of 25 parties, not just the Maoists of yesterday. The seats won by these three parties in 2074 were 134, their combined number in 2082 was only 35. In this way, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has taken the vacant seats.

As the traditional parties have shrunk in this way, the main leadership of those parties has been defeated. Which also shows how powerful the influence of the RSS was in this election. The former Prime Minister, former Deputy Prime Minister, and top leaders of the party were all defeated by a large margin. This is not just the defeat of one candidate of the respective party, but the departure of the old political generation that has been controlling the power of the country for decades.

An interesting fact is that the 2079 parliament was the oldest among the elections held under this constitution. The average age was 56 years, with 62 MPs above 60. The 2082 election, on the other hand, produced a parliament that was the exact opposite. MPs above 60 have decreased from 62 to 13, while MPs aged 39 or below have increased from 9 to 55. The average age has decreased by 11 years. This is the largest generational shift in the last three federal elections.   

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) party, which brought a wave across the country in this election, could not expand at the same pace, especially in Karnali province. The RSS has established itself as a single party in Bagmati and Madhesh. After that, the RSSP is also dominant in Lumbini, Gandaki, Koshi (except for a few constituencies dominated by the Shram Sanskriti Party), and the Far West. However, this wave could not reach the hills of Karnali. Out of the 12 constituencies in 10 districts of this province, the RSVP won only 1 seat - Surkhet - 2. The NCP secured 4 and the Congress 5 seats.  

There are many political and social dimensions to how the RSVP expanded so dramatically. However, one answer lies in the unbalanced results that the direct election system can create. The average vote needed by each party to win a seat in the direct election system was much more unequal this time compared to previous elections. While the RSVP won one seat with 37,198 votes, the UML had to spend 1,80,017 votes for one seat. Read a separate analysis on this   

Ratio of votes to seats: The most unbalanced election result among the last 3 [See 6 graphs]

The 2082 election brought about a huge political change. The parliament changed, the political map of the country changed, the parties changed, the faces of the MPs changed, their ages changed, their professional backgrounds changed. Diversity was seen in all of these. However, the parliament could not become more inclusive from the perspective of ethnicity and gender. The Khas-Aryan community, which has been getting more opportunities for political and administrative representation than its share of the population, was elected this time with the highest number of 62 percent. Read a separate story on this:  

Marginalized communities left behind by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) wave