There is a debate that Jhapa-5 could produce not only an MP but also a potential Prime Minister this time. This is why the main competition is centered between Oli and Balendra.
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Jhapa is currently at the center of election discussions due to the main competition between UML Chairman and former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and senior leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Balendra Shah. There is widespread interest in where Jhapa's election equation will turn amid the changing psychology of voters, the emergence of new political forces, and the testing of traditional influence. In this context, an edited excerpt of a conversation between Kantipur's Gaurav Pokharel and Parbat Portel with analyst Sagar Shiwakoti, a member of Readers Jhapa and a teacher at Himalaya Multiple College in Mechinagar, about the overall election situation, major competition, and changing political trends in Jhapa:
How do you see the election atmosphere in Jhapa?
Jhapa is very hot right now. Like the weather, the election atmosphere is also 'hot'. From social media to village-to-village discussions, the election is the talk of the town. From the outside, Jhapa-5 seems to be more hot. However, looking inside, the election activity is intense in all areas of Jhapa.
How do you view the competition between Oli and Balendra in Jhapa-5?
When I went to the field, Balendra Shah's chances seem a bit stronger. UML's organization is strong. Oli has also developed a lot of physical infrastructure in area number 5. That also shows the voters' affection for the party. However, the current atmosphere seems to have gone beyond the organization.
Oli himself has been very active in the past few days and has been going door to door. I wonder if this activity will help hold the UML's votes. However, the question is whether it is enough in the current situation.
Are other candidates in Jhapa-5 overshadowed?
There is a debate that Jhapa-5 can provide not only an MP but also a potential Prime Minister this time. This is why the main competition is focused between Oli and Balendra. There are also candidates from other parties, including the young candidate Ranjit Tamang of the Maoist Center and candidates from other parties. However, as the national debate focuses on the question of ‘who will be the Prime Minister?’, other candidates seem to have been overshadowed.
How do you see the competition in Jhapa-2?
There is a nationwide wave of seeking alternatives in Jhapa-2 as well. The UML organization is strong here too. There are candidates from Congress, Maoists, RPP, and independents of all kinds. The caste structure also seems effective here. The presence of the Brahmin-Chhetri community who migrated from the hills and the local Rai-Limbu community is notable. The caste factor played a role in the previous elections. This time too, that factor is important. There are indications that the vote split may be at many levels. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the results here.
What is the situation in Jhapa-1?
Jhapa-1 is the constituency of influential Nepali Congress leader Bishwaprakash Sharma. The Congress is more active here. The candidates of UML, Congress and other parties are individually strong. However, the competition between Congress and alternative forces seems to be intense due to the field situation.
Is there any possibility of UML-RPP collaboration in Jhapa-3 this time?
If collaboration takes place, the result may not be a 'direct transfer' as the leadership had hoped. Today's voters are independent. Voters no longer seem to be in a position to easily follow the leader's instructions. On the contrary, if collaboration is forced, there may be a 'reaction' among the workers. It can also bring unexpected results.
How do you assess the situation in the entire Jhapa district?
Jhapa as a whole is in a very fluid state. The National Independent Party, which was previously considered the fourth force in national politics, appears to be the main competitor this time. The psychology of seeking alternatives is strong among voters.
Despite development activities, why are voters seeking alternatives?
Building infrastructure is not just development. Development is the feeling of positive change in the lives of citizens. Even if roads, bridges, and buildings are built, if there is no good governance and self-respect, that development is incomplete. Citizens should not lose their self-respect when they go to the ward office or police office. Youth who have returned from abroad should hope that they can do something in their own country. In the absence of that feeling, voters are attracted to alternatives. Two faces are now seen as alternatives, Gagan Thapa and Balendra. Gagan is trying to refresh the old party. Balendra and Ravi are presenting a new political style. One side is choosing a 'fresh alternative' while the other side seems to be choosing an 'improved alternative with structure'. Which option to choose is open to the people.
What will be the overall result of Jhapa?
It is difficult to say the number. However, this much is certain, the possibility of repeating the same result as before is very low. A new wind has blown in Jhapa. The old definition of 'Red Fort' now seems to be weakened. This time, Jhapa seems to be causing some kind of upheaval.
