Due to the heavy rain since Thursday, life has been disrupted across the country. As of Saturday night, more than 100 people have lost their lives across the country, with a large number of people missing. The highway connecting the capital is blocked. Landslides have occurred in dozens of places. At least 34 people died in Kathmandu alone, while all the settlements along the river were flooded.

What is the reason for this heavy rain that occurred when it is generally assumed that the monsoon has ended? What is the mechanism capacity to predict this kind of natural disaster? Director General of Water and Meteorology Department for disaster preparedness, relief and rescue Jagdishwar Karmacharya story- Ghanshyam Khadka from Kantipur and Rajesh Mishra talk to break: What are the main meteorological reasons for the heavy rains happening now? Is it related to a particular weather system such as monsoon effect or other climate system? We are now in monsoon. It means, the monsoon is not over. Generally, the weather in the 'Indo-Gangetic Plain' is changing due to the monsoon low pressure line. As it moves from one place to another over a period of two to four weeks, there will be occasional and occasional rains. In the same order, this time it has rained. From the point of view of weather, it is natural for such an event to happen in monsoon.

This time the rains in Madhya Pradesh have spread to the middle of the atmosphere. Due to this, the water vapor from the Bay of Bengal from the east and the water vapor from the Abar Sea from the west got together and moved from Madhya Pradesh towards the Himalayas. Due to this, heavy rains occurred in some places in India as well. It also rained in central and eastern parts of Nepal. 

'

Indo-Gangetic plane' covers which part of us?

This region extends from the neck of the Himalayas in Nepal to Madhya Pradesh in India. This is called the monsoon active region.  Jandhan also suffered a large amount of damage. Is it more rain than expected? 

Yes, it has been 54 years since rain measurement was started in Nepal. Looking at the records since then, this is a 'record breaking year' in Kathmandu. There are 17 rain gauge centers in Kathmandu Valley. So far, we have been able to see the data of 12 of them. The 'record' has been broken so far in 9 places.

We calculate how much rain fell on that day based on the concentration of rain in the last 24 hours. This time, 640 milliliters of rain fell in Dodhara-Chandni in a single day. This is 'record breaking'. Similarly, till now, the maximum rainfall of 345 milliliters has been measured, surpassing the record of water falling in the valley. This is more than expected. In Kathmandu, the measuring stations of Panipokhari, Budhanilkanth, Khokna, Naikap, Nagarjuna, Tribhuvan Airport have shown the highest rainfall so far. 

Why is this happening?

This is the effect of climate change. As long as greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, this will continue. 

Is it changing our weather cycles? seems to be bringing a

. Because, in the last phase, heavy rains have started in the latter part of the monsoon. Otherwise, July and August usually receive the heaviest rainfall during the monsoon. The lowest was in September. This is a 30 year weather pattern. However, for the last five to seven years, there has been a lot of rain at the beginning and end.

And, we used to take October 2 as the end of monsoon. Because, looking at the continuous time of three decades, it seems that monsoon rains stop after October 2 on an average. However, lately it has started raining till October 15. What this means is that our climate system is changing. So, it's tempting. Because after a few days it stopped raining, people leave their homes because it has stopped raining. It is raining heavily at that time. 

How much work has been done this time to forecast for public awareness so that people don't bend?

We had already warned about the arrival of this rainy system five days before. Because, the water vapor coming from the east and west was moving towards the mountains. However, since the sun was shining at that time, people did not care much about it. However, one thing to understand about the weather is that even if it looks like the sky is clear now, it will rain after a while. To understand this one has to resort to predictions made by experts. For information, we usually issue a three-day forecast based on the expected arrival time of water vapor in the low pressure area.

However, this time we issued a special bulletin of rain forecast on the 9th at 3 pm till Sunday the 13th. We issue a special bulletin in this way when there is a possibility of isolated rainfall and flooding. We have issued seven such bulletins during this monsoon period.

In this bulletin, out of the 77 districts, except some parts of the North-West and North-East, we published information with a map that it is raining here and there. Based on the same information, a circular was also issued to not run buses at night for two days. If we are to give information, the general public should understand how much caution should be taken from it. It is the responsibility of other mechanisms of the government to arrange the necessary preparations and response. 

How early can this kind of heavy rain be predicted? 

is usually done three days in advance. This time we did it five days ago. Two weeks before the rain, no one can tell what will happen where. If there is a good technique, weather information can be estimated for seven to ten days. There are only 10 countries in the world, including China, India, some European countries and prosperous countries like America, that can forecast such a long period.

The longer the forecast period, the more worldwide weather data is needed and the more supercomputers are needed. The resources and tools we have made it possible to forecast up to three days. We also provide weather forecasts for major countries, sometimes up to five days. That's what we did this time. 

Is climate change playing a role in the intensity and frequency of these extreme weather events?

is definitely there. Big rains that used to happen every two or three years in the past are now happening all at once. This order is increasing. It all depends on the rate at which emissions fall and rise. There are different patterns of climate projections around the world for what will happen 50 or 100 years from now. But what everyone agrees on is that overall, monsoons will be more rainy and winters will be drier. Heat wave ie Lu will come to more places. Much of the world will become uninhabitable. Winter will also decrease. 

What can be done to improve early warning systems and communication in the future to prevent such large losses?

The role of creating awareness is more of other bodies of society than ours. However, as soon as we forecast a heavy rain or flood, we inform over 200 government agencies by email. We also send SMS to reach residents of flood prone areas.

Telecom service providers send such SMS for free. This time we sent hundreds of mass SMS. SMS has been sent to the people near the river in Kathmandu even in this rainy season. People didn't seem to care much because there wasn't much damage before.

Now when will the weather improve?

The improvement will start from Sunday morning. The monsoon system is moving east and north. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be partly cloudy all day. The weather improves completely from Parsi (Monday). 

How long is the duration of the monsoon and how does it rain? 

Monsoon lasts for four months. It does not happen all at once. The center of this weather system continues to move towards a low pressure area. Wherever it moves, it rains. 

What happened in this area, if the monsoon is considered to be over?