Who will win this competition between the Congress, which is trying to preserve its legacy, the UML, which is trying to restore its lost reputation, the CPN (Maoist) which is playing the emotional card, and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) which is playing the politics of alternatives, will be made clear by the results of the February 21 election and the following elections.
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From tea shops to the market stalls in Dhading, there is now talk of which candidate will win. The election race in Constituency No. 2 in particular has reached an interesting turn, where 24 candidates have entered the fray.
The competition between the main forces is intense in this area, which includes 6 rural municipalities including Nilkantha Municipality, Ruby Valley, Gangajumana, Khaniyabas, Netravati, Tripurasundari and Jwalamukhi.
24 candidates are in the fray in Dhading-2. Of these, 8 are independent candidates. But in practice, the competition seems to be between Congress's Ramesh Dhamala, UML's Dhan Bahadur Ghale, NCP's Ram Bahadur Bhandari and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's Bodh Narayan Shrestha.
Congress candidate Ramedh Dhamala is a former district president. The organizational structure of the Congress is considered strong in this area. The victory of the Congress in most of the municipalities in the area in the 2079 local level elections in the then Maoist Center alliance also indicates this. The contradictions of the Bhim Dhungana factor, considered to be Deuba's side in Dhading, and the rise of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) seem to be the main challenges for the Congress.
UML candidate Dhan Bahadur Ghale was elected as a member of the Constituent Assembly from Dhading-1 in 2070. UML, which was limited to the second place in the direct election in 2079, seems to be trying to take advantage of the psychological weakness of the Congress-Maoist alliance. Although Ghale is an experienced leader, his long-term inactivity in national politics and the controversy over ticket distribution make the contradictions within the party seem challenging for him.
Although the UML initially said that it would give the ticket to Ghale, it was decided to give the ticket to Chandra Rijal in the middle. But after the Ghale faction protested by locking the district party office, the ticket was sent in Ghale's name.
The candidacy of 'NCP' candidate Ram Bahadur Bhandari is being watched with special interest in this election. Bhandari, who played the role of the head of the people's government during the People's War, is himself injured, while his two sons are still missing. This is the main aspect that makes his candidacy emotional. But in recent elections, the Maoist vote has been steadily declining. The proportional results of 2079 also show that the party has shrunk to the third power.
RSP candidate Bodh Narayan Shrestha came to politics through social campaigns. He is also the deputy head of the party's central organization department and has entered the fray with a new face, a new style and the slogan 'different from the old party'. The RSP, which got more than 5,000 votes in direct elections in 2079, has the potential to attract disgruntled voters this time. But the challenge for it is not to weaken the party's organization and local structure.
What do the previous results say?
Looking at the election results of 2079, the joint alliance of the Congress and the Maoists seemed strong in this area. At that time, Congress' Ramnath Adhikari won with 34,736 votes, while UML's Khem Prasad Lohani got 24,190 votes. However, in the 2074 election, Lohani won from the left alliance of UML and Maoists.
The results of the 2079 local level elections also show the strong presence of Congress in this area. Congress candidates won in six out of seven local levels, while Maoists were elected in Ruby Valley.
Similarly, in 2074, Lohani of the UML-Maoist alliance won with 36,256 votes, while Congress' Dilman Pakhrin was stopped at 35,616 votes. The slight difference in both elections is an indication that Dhading-2 is a 'swing' area.
According to the proportional voting results of the last election, Congress is leading with 20,957 votes. UML is trailing with 16,275 votes and Maoists with 11,494 votes. RSP was in fourth place with 5,628 votes.
This time, the total number of voters has reached 138,594. The votes cast by small parties and independent candidates and the inclination of newly added voters seem to be the decisive link in Dhading-2. No party is clearly seen as a 'favorite' in Dhading-2 this time.
Who will win this competition between the Congress, which is trying to preserve its old legacy, the UML, which is trying to restore its lost reputation, the NCP, which has thrown the emotional card, and the RSP, which is pursuing alternative politics, will be clear only from the voting on Falgun 21 and the results thereafter.
