Over the past month, the strengthening El Niño could further develop to become the 'most powerful El Niño since 1950,' scientists have estimated.
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Various weather forecasting models have indicated that El Niño will intensify throughout 2026. Due to interactions between the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean, scientists have concluded that there is a 97 percent chance El Niño will persist until the early spring of 2027.
Similarly, there is an 81 percent chance that an extremely powerful El Niño will develop between October and December 2026. If this happens, it is expected to be the most powerful El Niño since 1950.
El Niño is currently active as well. According to American meteorologists and climate scientists, there is a 97 percent chance it will become even stronger by the end of the year and persist until the early spring of 2027 (through March–April).
Institutions including the National Weather Service under the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are monitoring this situation.
According to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, El Niño has been strengthening over the past month. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures are more than 1 degree Celsius above normal. Temperatures within the ocean in the equatorial Pacific have also increased.
If the surface temperature of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean remains 2 degrees Celsius or more above average for an extended period, it is considered a ‘very powerful’ or ‘super’ El Niño.
The center has stated that due to the recently developed 'downwelling Kelvin wave,' the layer of warm water in the eastern Pacific has deepened, causing temperatures to rise further. Scientists have analyzed that atmospheric conditions are also making El Niño stronger.
According to the center, there has been an unusual flow of westerly winds near the surface and easterly winds in the upper atmosphere in the western and central equatorial Pacific. As clouds and rainfall have increased in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, such activity has decreased in the Indonesia region. The Southern Oscillation Index has also been significantly negative. All these indicators confirm that both the ocean and atmosphere are working together to make El Niño even more powerful.
The most powerful El Niño does not have the same effect everywhere in the world. However, it significantly increases the likelihood of unusual weather conditions.
El Niño is a natural weather cycle. As the waters of the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, it brings major changes to weather patterns around the world. The warm vapor that rises from here also weakens the South Asian monsoon system.
