Oli's decision to hold a candidate for electoral coordination and centralization of power has caused discontent among local activists and UML voters.
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UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli has put candidates on hold in 25 constituencies across the country for the upcoming House of Representatives elections without announcing them.
Considering the past electoral history of these areas, the current political equation and the internal power struggle within the UML, this decision seems to be a strategy focused more on power, control and bargaining than on electoral victory. The UML Central Secretariat meeting held on Saturday finalized only 140 candidates for the direct route. Oli has been publicly saying that he will not enter into electoral alliances with anyone. However, there is a possibility of an alliance in most of the areas that are being held. That is why it has been said that the candidates in those areas will be decided by the chairman. Oli's home district of Jhapa, constituency number 3, being 'held' is the most meaningful decision. Oli had secured his political interests by forming an alliance with RPP chairman Rajendra Lingden in the previous two elections. There is talk within the UML that Jhapa-3 has been kept away from the final decision due to the possibility of the same equation being repeated this time too. Although the Jhapa District Committee has already recommended the names of Basant Baniya and Hari Rajbanshi, the center has ignored it. This has created deep resentment among local workers and voters. Deepak Kafle, a UML voter from Jhapa-3, says, ‘We have not been able to vote in Surya for 10 years. The possibility of not getting it this time too is increasing.’ Another UML voter from Barhadashi, Ram Prasad Chamlagain, reacts even more strongly, ‘If there is a coordination now, our vote will go to another new force. Can we be deceived like this again and again?’
The dissatisfaction seen in Jhapa-3 is a sign that Oli’s strategy is making the traditional UML voter base fray.
With the talk of Balendra Shah, this time Oli is considering himself ‘insecure’. That is why it seems certain that he will repeat the old equation in Jhapa-3.
Not only that, Oli has also ‘held’ the ticket in Rukum East, where NCP coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal is the candidate. A central member of UML said that there is a possibility of an electoral connection between Rukum East and Jhapa-5.
‘Bypassing’ other groups
Oli has kept Jhapa-3, Taplejung-1, Sunsari-2 and 3, Morang-5 and 6 on hold in Koshi Province. He has bypassed leaders of other groups in other provinces as well.
Taplejung-1 is a constituency won by Deputy General Secretary Yogesh Bhattarai in the previous election. But Oli is seen as not giving a ticket to Bhattarai, who has been openly disagreeing with Oli’s decisions since the general convention. UML sources say that the constituency was held as he was seen as a ‘leader who would go against him’.
In Morang-6, half a dozen leaders, including former minister Lalbabu Pandit, were recommended. Among them, Binod Dhakal Oli is a strong candidate from the other group. Many names, including Uddhav Pokharel, were recommended from Morang-5 as well. But by holding both constituencies, Oli has prioritized the math of stopping other groups more than winning the election.
Bhim Acharya had won in the previous election in Sunsari-2. Bhagwati Chaudhary, who was elected from Sunsari-3, has been shifted to zone number 4 and 3 have been held.
Gokul Baskota, who won the previous election in Kavre-2, was defeated by becoming a candidate for secretary from another group in the 11th general convention. This time, the zone has been held with indications that he will not be given a ticket.
Baskota's reaction after Oli 'held' the ticket - What do I know?
Preparations are underway to not give a ticket to Krishna Gopal Shrestha in Kathmandu-9, saying that Oli is active in another group. Shrestha, who once praised Oli as the 'Pele of politics', is now without a ticket.
Kathmandu-4, 5, 7 and Lalitpur-3 are also on hold due to strong opposition candidates.
7 tickets are held in Lumbini Province alone. Rupandehi-1 was won by UML Secretary Chhabilal Bishwakarma last time. But this time, this zone is also on hold. He has a strategy of not giving him a ticket. Bishwokarma won from this constituency in 2074 and 2079 BS.
Vice President Bishnu Poudel, who won in Rupandehi-2, has been transferred to Palpa-2 and this constituency has also been kept vacant. Palpa-2 is the constituency won by Thakur Gaire. His ticket has been taken away and Poudel has been sent there. Rupandehi-4 was won by Sarvendranath Sukla of LOSPA.
Kapilvastu-2 was won by Surendra Acharya of Congress. In all these constituencies, Oli has kept the door open for possible coordination and last-minute bargaining by saying that 'the chairman will decide later'.
Shankar Pokharel and the 'Dahal Factor'
Metmani Chaudhary and Rekha Sharma won in the previous elections in Dang-1 and 2. The main reason for saying that the chairman will decide on both these areas after understanding the wishes of the secretary general is an attempt to make general secretary Shankar Pokharel safe.
Rukum East is a constituency won by Purna Bahadur Gharti of the NCP last time. This time, NCP coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal is preparing to become a candidate himself. The fact that UML has not finalized a candidate here is considered the clearest sign of an undeclared alliance.
According to analysts, Oli has four main objectives in holding tickets in 25 areas.
First, to keep the door open for an undeclared electoral alliance; second, to keep leaders of other groups under pressure and uncertainty; third, to ensure a safe landing for close leaders; and to centralize all the power of candidate selection in the chairman. However, it is clear that this strategy will lead to cadre disappointment, rebellion among voters, and open disagreement within the party.
‘Holding candidates in 25 constituencies is Oli’s authoritarian political move,’ says political analyst Rajendra Maharjan. ‘Oli is only concerned about how to protect himself and his own people, he doesn’t care about others.’
