Climate change was mentioned in the manifestos of the major political parties in the last two federal elections. With a few exceptions, these manifestos mainly focused on forest conservation, community forestry, biodiversity, international climate conferences and grants, renewable energy, and formal mentions of environmental impact assessments. However, while the inclusion of these issues in the manifestos is positive, there is a weakness in the understanding of the seriousness of climate change among political parties. And, in most cases, climate change is still presented only as a separate environmental agenda.

How to assess climate risks in large infrastructure, hydropower, road and urban development? How to change project design and decisions based on that? What will be the institutional mechanisms? And, who will be responsible? These implementation aspects have often remained unclear. In the case of Nepal, the state and political parties seem to have failed to clearly understand and establish that climate change is a multidimensional issue directly linked to food security, public health, migration, employment, infrastructure, energy security and ultimately national security. 

The events seen in recent years from the Himalayas to the Terai have fully proven that climate change is not only related to forests and the environment. The floods in Tilagaun in Humla, the avalanches that came from the Tibetan region to Rasuwa, the bursting of the glacial lake in Thame, the severe flash floods in Melamchi, the inundation of the Kathmandu Valley in the past two years, unusual droughts and inundations in the Terai districts, and the increasing landslides and erosion in the mid-hills and Himalayan regions are all signs of the impact of climate change. These risks are no longer just a possibility in the future, they have become a reality today. Therefore, it is imperative for the parties to embrace climate change as a central agenda linked to the mainstream of development, not just an environmental issue.

Why is climate change a multi-sectoral multi-risk issue for Nepal?

Most of the policies, programs, and budgets related to climate change are focused on the Ministry of Forests and Environment. Historically, work related to environment, forest conservation, biodiversity, and international climate agreements has been under this ministry.  Both the number and size of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region of Nepal are increasing rapidly. As the rate of snow and glacier melting increases, the risk of glacial lake collapse is increasing, and frozen ground and rocks are weakening. And, this is causing landslides, rock falls, and structural instability. Its direct impact is starting to affect roads, bridges, hydroelectric projects, and mountainous settlements. As Melamchi and Thame have shown, a mountainous event can affect not only the settlements below, but also the energy system and the national economy. The Melamchi flood not only destroyed the Melamchi drinking water infrastructure but also washed away many bridges, roads, fish ponds, agricultural land, and residential buildings. The Thame avalanche not only damaged the historic tourist area but also the Thame Power Project, the only source of energy in the Namche region, and has put it at high risk.  

Excessive rainfall in the hill and mid-hill regions is no longer an exception but a regular occurrence. This has led to increased problems of road erosion, bridge washouts, displacement of settlements, and destruction of agricultural land. These problems are not just natural; development without understanding land suitability, weak regulations, and faulty engineering practices have made the risks even more serious. In the Terai region, both floods and droughts are starting to occur in the same year. Unusual floods destroy crops, while prolonged droughts affect irrigation and production. This is having a direct impact on food security, farmers' income, and social stability. Flooding in urban areas, especially in the Kathmandu Valley, is no longer a problem limited to riverbanks. 

As mentioned above, there is still a strong tendency in Nepal to perceive climate change as a limited issue of environmental protection. This is why most policies, programs and budgets related to climate change are focused on the Ministry of Forest and Environment. Historically, work related to environment, forest conservation, biodiversity and international climate agreements has been under this ministry. Since early climate finance was also linked to the forest sector and conservation, this issue has become institutionally limited there. When climate change is linked only to the Ministry of Forests, climate adaptation programs are limited to tree planting or awareness-raising activities, but climate multi-risk is not included in the study, design and standards of infrastructure. Policy making should be done by directly linking climate risk to development, infrastructure, energy, agriculture, urbanization and social security. 

Since the task of mitigating the causes of climate change is beyond our capabilities, national parties should have mentioned the multi-dimensional impacts of climate change, especially in the context of long-term development, in their manifestos. Even if the party manifesto includes a climate change agenda, some of the policy points that should be included are as follows: 

Climate finance and international cooperation

Low-carbon countries like Nepal, but at high climate risk, need to demonstrate a strong, coordinated and evidence-based presence in international climate finance and cooperation. Nepal's participation in international forums on climate change (especially conferences like COP) should not be limited to formal attendance alone, but should include a clear agenda and clear presentation on issues such as mountain risks, glacial lake outburst floods, climate-induced migration, and regional stability. A policy of creating strong pressure based on diplomatic activism, technical evidence, and long-term climate strategies is necessary to increase access to the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund, and other multilateral funds. In addition, a policy should be adopted to focus bilateral cooperation with major donor agencies and countries not only on project-oriented assistance, but also on institutional capacity development, risk management, and long-term adaptation.

Climate multi-risk studies are mandatory in development and infrastructure 

A policy that incorporates climate risk as a mandatory basis in development and infrastructure planning is necessary. Environmental impact assessments alone are not sufficient for all large projects such as roads, hydropower and urban infrastructure. Climate risk and resilience assessments that include future rainfall, temperature increases, mountain risks and extreme weather events should be mandatory. As the floods in Melamchi and Rasuwa, the disruption and damage to BP Highway and other highways, and the damage to hydropower infrastructure in the Himalayan region have shown, infrastructure that does not incorporate climate risk is not sustainable and is also economically costly. Therefore, infrastructure built in the future must ensure sustainability to meet not only today's needs, but also the climate risks of the coming decades. 

Energy and hydropower security

In recent years, the need for water storage projects has increased as the production capacity of run-of-river hydropower projects has decreased due to the uncertainty of river flow. However, there are potential risks of climate change in the design and operation of dams in such projects.  Since Nepal's energy system is mainly based on hydropower, the risks arising from climate change should be placed at the center of energy policy. Excessive rainfall, floods, long dry periods and mountain risks are directly affecting the structural safety and production capacity of hydropower projects. 

In recent years, the need for water storage projects has increased as the production capacity of run-of-river hydropower projects has decreased due to the uncertainty of river flow. However, there are potential risks of climate change in the design and operation of dams in such projects. These risks are excessive rainfall, flooding, flash floods and landslides, and seismic risk. Moving forward without studying them in depth can lead to serious damage, as seen in Sikkim. Therefore, climate risk assessment should be mandatory in new hydropower projects, and the trend of concentrating too many projects on a single river should be reviewed. Long-term energy security should also be ensured by diversifying energy through solar, wind, and other renewable sources.

Research, data and evidence-based climate policy

Nepal has not been able to present a clear and evidence-based basis for directly linking past disasters such as unusual floods, landslides, glacial lake outburst floods and droughts to climate change.

The main reason for this is the lack of long-term research, reliable data and an integrated data system. Therefore, institutional collaboration between universities, research institutes and government agencies is necessary to strengthen Nepal's claim in climate policy making and international forums.

A long-term observation system should be developed by installing climate, hydrological, geotechnical and meteorological instruments in the Himalayan, hilly and Terai regions. It is necessary to manage the data collected in this way through an integrated national climate database and make it usable for research, policy making and international presentation for all.

Climate insurance, financial security and risk transfer

The increasing risk of floods, landslides, glacial lake outburst floods and extreme weather events due to climate change is creating major economic risks to infrastructure, agriculture and public finances. Therefore, it is necessary to make climate risk insurance mandatory for large infrastructure projects - such as hydropower, drinking water and irrigation projects, dams, highways, bridges and urban infrastructure. The burden on the state treasury after major losses cannot be reduced without developing not only general insurance, but also a long-term risk transfer system with reinsurance. 

In addition, cooperation with the private sector, banking system and international insurance markets should be increased by developing climate insurance and financial security mechanisms targeting farmers, small enterprises and local governments. The need of the day is for the parties to adopt clear policies that manage climate risk jointly through the financial system, not as the sole responsibility of the state.

Institutional reform and coordination

It is necessary to develop the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority as a more powerful, resourceful and executive institution. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority should take the lead in developing, operating and coordinating a multi-hazard early warning system, so that it can deliver clear and credible warning messages to local governments and communities in a timely manner. 

Ensuring effective coordination between ministries and departments related to climate change and its risks, and ensuring smooth and regular sharing of weather, water, land-risk and disaster-related data should also be established as a central role of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority. Limiting climate change to the responsibility of the Ministry of Forest and Environment is no longer effective.

Since its impact is directly linked to the economy, physical infrastructure, energy, agriculture, internal security and disaster management, it is necessary to link all these ministries in a coordinated manner. Without clear coordination between climate policy, budget, project selection and implementation through the National Planning Commission, Ministry of Finance and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, it will be difficult to achieve the goals of climate risk reduction and sustainable development.

Himalayan Risk Management

The area where the impact of climate change can be clearly felt is the Himalayan region of Nepal. As the incidents in Mustang, Thame, Imja, Tamor, Rasuwa and Humla have shown, regular monitoring of high-risk glacial lakes, early warning systems (early warning) and risk mapping based on scientific evidence should be mandatory. In addition, since developing infrastructure without understanding the sensitivity of the mountainous terrain and preparing a land use plan is risky, there should be clear guidance on where and how settlements, roads and hydropower projects should be built.

Along with structural measures, nature-based solutions should be made an integral part of mountain risk reduction. In addition, developing a planned, safe and respectful relocation policy for communities living in highly vulnerable settlements by applying special mountain design criteria for mountain roads, bridges and hydropower projects that do not meet general standards should be a central agenda for mountain risk management.

Urban flooding and city planning

Urban flooding is no longer a problem limited to riverside settlements but has become a challenge linked to the overall planning and governance of the city. काठमाडौं उपत्यकामा पछिल्ला वर्षहरूमा देखिएका दोहोरिने डुबान, ढल प्रणालीको असक्षमता, खोला अतिक्रमण र अनियन्त्रित सहरीकरणको प्रत्यक्ष परिणाम हुन्, जसलाई जलवायु परिवर्तनले थप तीव्र बनाएको छ । त्यसैले खोला, नदी र जलाधारको संरक्षणलाई आधार बनाउँदै वर्षा पानी व्यवस्थापन प्रणालीलाई सहर योजनाको केन्द्रमा राख्नुपर्छ । काठमाडौं उपत्यकाका लागि छुट्टै जलवायु–अनुकूल सहरी मास्टर प्लान विकास गरी बाढी, डुबान र जलजन्य जोखिम घटाउने दीर्घकालीन उपाय अवलम्बन गर्नु आजको आवश्यकता हो ।

कृषि, खाद्य सुरक्षा र पानी

जलवायु परिवर्तनका कारण कृषि प्रणालीमा बढ्दो अनिश्चितताले नेपालमा खाद्य सुरक्षा र ग्रामीण आजीविकामा गम्भीर चुनौती सिर्जना गरिरहेको छ । तराईमा असामान्य बाढी र खडेरीको दोहोरो असर, पहाडमा वर्षाको अस्थिरता र माटो क्षयले उत्पादन जोखिम बढाएको छ । त्यसैले जलवायु–अनुकूल कृषि प्रविधिको विस्तार, बाढी र खडेरी दुवै सहन सक्ने सिँचाइ प्रणालीको विकास तथा बीउ सुधार र बाली विविधीकरणलाई प्राथमिकता दिनु आवश्यक छ । साथै, प्राकृतिक प्रकोपबाट किसानलाई जोगाउन प्रभावकारी किसान बिमा प्रणाली लागू नगरी दिगो कृषि र खाद्य सुरक्षा सुनिश्चित गर्न सकिँदैन ।

जलवायुप्रेरित बसाइँसराइ र सामाजिक सुरक्षा

जलवायु परिवर्तनका कारण पहिरो, बाढी, हिमताल फुट्ने जोखिम र भूमि क्षय बढ्दै जाँदा नेपालका धेरै समुदाय क्रमशः परम्परागत बासस्थान छोड्न बाध्य भइरहेका छन् । यस्तो बसाइँसराइलाई नीतिगत यथार्थका रूपमा स्वीकार गर्नु आवश्यक छ । जोखिमयुक्त क्षेत्रमा बसोबास गर्ने समुदायका लागि उक्त क्षेत्रमा सम्भव भएसम्म जोखिम न्यूनीकरणका कार्यक्रम लैजानुपर्छ ।

बसाइँसराइलाई नीतिगत यथार्थका रूपमा स्वीकार गर्नु आवश्यक छ । जोखिमयुक्त क्षेत्रमा बसोबास गर्ने समुदायका लागि उक्त क्षेत्रमा सम्भव भएसम्म जोखिम न्यूनीकरणका कार्यक्रम लैजानुपर्छ ।   यस्तो नीति लिने वा योजनाबद्ध, सम्मानजनक र सुरक्षित स्थानान्तरण नीति विकास गर्दै नयाँ बसोबास क्षेत्रमा रोजगारी, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य र आधारभूत सेवा सुनिश्चित गर्न सकिएन भने जलवायु जोखिम सामाजिक अस्थिरतामा रूपान्तरण हुने खतरा रहन्छ ।