Elections are the grand event of democracy, where the people decide their future. For Nepali political parties and candidates on the brink of the general election scheduled for Falgun 21, the battle is not limited to the electoral arena alone, it is also a competition to capture the information medium and the ‘psychology’ of the voters.

Looking at the global and national trends, it is no longer enough to have an agenda to win an election, but how it is ‘packaged’ and effectively conveyed to the minds of voters through mass media and social media also decides the outcome. Politics is not driven by emotions alone; strategic ingenuity, good planning, and effective promotion are essential to succeed in this.

The Economics of Elections: The Mathematics of Investment and Results

The role of mathematics in election campaigns is decisive. This can be analyzed on the basis of ‘Cost Per Vote-CPV’ i.e. the investment required to obtain one vote and ‘Impression to Conversation Ratio’. An interesting fact has emerged from looking at the expenditure details of Nepal’s 2079 general elections. While the winning candidates of the House of Representatives spent an average of Rs 2.13 crore, the average expenditure of the runners-up was only Rs 1.49 crore. This means that there is a direct and positive relationship between strategic expenditure and election results. Candidates who invest about 40 percent more have a higher chance of winning.

Global Trends: India and America's Experience How much investment in advertising has an impact? To understand this, it is relevant to look at the recent election spending of the world's two largest democracies.

– America (2024) : About $15.9 billion was spent on the US presidential election. Of this, more than $1.35 billion was spent on online and digital advertising alone.

– India (2024) : It is estimated that about Rs 1.35 lakh crore was spent on the Lok Sabha elections in India. The Bharatiya Janata Party alone has officially submitted a report that it spent about Rs 1,738 crore on advertising.

What these figures confirm is that in modern politics, the key to power lies in the hands of those candidates who invest heavily in voter 'visibility' and 'engagement'.

Nepal's local elections and the digital revolution

The 2079 local elections in Nepal became a 'turning point' that changed the style of advertising. Social media advertising played a crucial role in the victory of independent candidates, especially in urban areas like Kathmandu and Dharan. According to data from Meta (Facebook)’s Ad Library, Nepali candidates spent about 20 million Nepali rupees on Facebook ads during that period. Of which, independent candidates accounted for 33 percent. Interestingly, there was a strong correlation of 0.85 between positive responses on Facebook and the final vote result. This proves that the more impact you can make in the digital world, the more likely it is that the same result will be seen at the actual ballot box.

The Psychology of Election Campaigns 

Voting is an emotional and psychological decision for voters. Successful campaigns focus on the following three aspects:

1. Micro-segmentation : Not all voters are reached by the same speech. Sending separate ads for ‘employment and technology’ to the youth, ‘social security’ to the elderly, and ‘empowerment’ to women is modern election math. 

2. Priming : When the media continuously presents their agenda and face for a few weeks before the election, a ‘familiar impression’ of the candidate is left in the voters’ minds. 

3. Use of AI : The use of AI seems to be widespread in the 2026 elections. The technology of making personal calls or sending video messages to thousands of voters in their own voice eliminates the physical distance between the candidate and the voter. 

Strategic use of mass media and social media

More than 54 percent of Nepal’s voters now depend on social media for news and information. However, amidst the ‘fake news’ spreading on social media, advertisements in print and online media provide ‘credibility’ to the candidate.

– Video content : Nepali voters now prefer to watch short and effective ‘TikTok’ or ‘Reels’ of 15-30 seconds rather than listening to long speeches. Content that reflects the human side of the candidate creates an emotional connection with the voter.

– Response management : To counter the negative propaganda of the opposition, a ‘digital war room’ is needed, which can publicize facts in real-time.

To bring results in their favor, political parties and candidates must do the following in the future: 

– Budget restructuring : At least 40 percent of the budget should be spent on print, television and digital media and voter data management, cutting out the unnecessary expenses of traditional banquets and flags and banners.