Nepali Congress General Secretary Gagan Thapa is currently under the most pressure of his political career. In a way, he is standing at a decisive political juncture. The issue of a regular or special general convention, which he had jointly raised with another general secretary, Bishwa Prakash Sharma, after the Gen-G movement, has not been resolved.

The central committee meeting on Monday (today) is expected to draw a conclusion on this. However, the controversy that has been going on within the Congress for a month about whether the general convention should be held before or after the elections has increased internal strife in the party. 

The establishment side is in favor of not holding any regular or special general convention before the elections and focusing on the elections. It is doing its homework to announce the post-election general convention schedule by voting in the central committee meeting if necessary. It is reported that President Sher Bahadur Deuba, who returned from Singapore after treatment, is trying to find a way out. 

General Secretary Thapa, on the other hand, is adamant that a special general convention should be held before the elections in Mangsir or at the latest in Poush. The issue of the general convention that he has put forward has increased tremendous pressure on the party ranks. However, it has not been able to interfere in the decision-making process. In other words, the 'number game' (faction/math) has become a bottleneck in the issue of the party's comprehensive reorganization. 

In this context, where will Thapa's future political destination be? What will he do if the establishment pushes him after the general convention elections with the power of factions and numbers? Will he move towards electing a new leadership through a special general convention by gathering 54 percent of the general convention delegates or will he compromise with the establishment? This has become the question of our time. 

What are his 'strengths' in the current political environment? What are his weaknesses? What are the options before him? Will he struggle for power within the party or engage in building a new political force? Such questions that have arisen now are not only related to his political career, but are relevant to Congress and politics as a whole. Before discussing Thapa's options/destination, his political image/trend should be divided into two parts: before and after the Gen-G demonstrations. 

Thapa after the Gen-G protests

Thapa has become the 'Mio' of the Congress after the Gen-G protests. The Gen-G street protests on 23 Bhadra and the chaotic destruction that took place the next day on 24, these two days shook the party system to its core. Leaders were forced to flee for their lives. The then Prime Minister, ministers and many other leaders had to be rescued by the army and taken to a safe place.

The private residences of the leaders were burned down. Congress President Deuba and his wife Arju Deuba were attacked by a mob. In that difficult situation where the country was gripped by political instability and directionlessness, Thapa was the first politician to come forward for dialogue with the people. He calmly and balancedly analyzed the situation through Facebook Live. He self-criticized and atoned for his mistakes and weaknesses, pointing out his mistakes and weaknesses. He said, 'There are stains on the faces of political parties and leaders. You cannot wipe the mirror. You have to wipe the stains on the faces.' 

From that point, he raised the issue of a comprehensive reorganization of the Congress. There was a political vacuum after the Congress-UML coalition government was ousted and another government had not been formed. At that time, he started facilitating the formation of a civilian government. He expressed solidarity with the demands of the Gen-Gs and said that they should be addressed and started trying to connect with the new generation. Since then, he has repeatedly raised the issue of party reorganization and comprehensive reforms through Facebook Live and various interviews. His statements are balanced. Political and mature. 

Thapa is a leader with strong oratory skills. He has the ability to speak fluently on the subject. He has the ability to attract the audience/listener to his words. However, after the Gen-G movement, Thapa's statements have been more refined, responsible and sensible than before. There are mainly three characteristics in his statements. First, he is not provocative and motivated by revenge. He has made statements after analyzing the seriousness of the issue from a deep level. 

Second, he seems a bit emotional and tense, however, at the same time he has put forward radical and structural reforms. Third, he is not reactive. The Congress has been continuously becoming reactive in Nepali politics for the last few years. Thapa is trying to get the Congress out of that. He has tried to present himself as a responsible and accountable leader. The Congress has said that the Congress should take the lead in national dialogue. 

At this time, the weapon to bring politics to the forefront with minimal damage is elections. He is not only talking about taking the Congress forward on the path of elections, he is also talking about bringing the UML, which is talking about restoring the parliament, to the side of the elections through dialogue. Outgoing Prime Minister KP Oli has made one after another statements of revenge and incitement. Which has been widely criticized at the public level. While even Thapa's critics have been heard praising the statements he has made in the meantime. 

There is a competition to become a leader in Nepali politics. Parties have sprouted like mushrooms. In a democracy, parties are formed to institutionalize the thoughts and policies of the citizens. Parties are considered the pillars of democracy. Parties are a means of policy formulation, leadership selection, competition in governance, and public opinion representation.

In that sense, the formation of parties is natural and welcome. However, the way parties have been formed without a minimum ideological political basis, these parties seem less like political shops and more like leaders, and leaders seem less like 'manufacturers of opportunism'. Thapa stands out in this crowd of new and old leaders. He is neither in a hurry like the new ones nor is he stuck in the status quo like the old ones. In essence, his presentation, self-criticism, and analysis after the Gen-G movement have made him the central character of a decisive leadership test. 

Thapa before the Gen-G protests

Thapa was emerging as a strong leader with potential even before the Gen-G protests. However, he was not able to review his own roles as seriously and deeply as he is now. Like many other politicians, he probably had a hunger for publicity. He himself admitted his shortcomings and tried to reform the party, but he could not apply the necessary force for it. Thapa, who was sharp in his oratory, failed to implement the things he raised in practice. 

He was also seen in strategic ambiguity. He carried the flag of reform and change within the party, but in some cases, the question arose whether he was not bargaining with the establishment for leadership. Thapa is a leader established through the movement. However, there was a touch of populist politics in him somewhere. Therefore, some of his statements were inspired by public consumption and populism. His other weakness was his lack of time management. He kept fighting within the party and raised the issue of reform. However, he could not take that risk, as there was a need for rebellion, not general reform in the Congress. 

The more pressure Thapa is under now, the more his confidence has increased. He has received a lot of goodwill and support from outside the party since student politics. However, he is an expert in turning unfavorable circumstances into favorable ones. That is why, despite not having the background of a political family and the blessings of big leaders, he fought and reached the position of general secretary of the party. He was not afraid of defeat and took it as a lesson and moved forward. 

Thapa does not have a long history of political struggle like the current top generation. However, he is a representative of the generation that grew up with the changes of 2046. He played a role in the 2062/63 people's movement, standing in that defeat along with Narahari Acharya to bring the Congress to the side of the republic. He played a role in the constitution-making through the Constituent Assembly. His mobility was also visible in parliamentary practice. He also gained governance experience once as the health minister. His term as health minister was not controversial. Even now, his nine-month term as health minister is taken as an example. There is no attraction towards him like during the student political period or the 2062/63 people's movement. That popularity graph has decreased. However, even today, there is a large public opinion that believes that Thapa should be given the 'benefit of the doubt'. For once, Thapa wants to see a test under the leadership of the party and the ruling party. 

The options are as follows

In this background, Thapa's political destination has become a question of ours. Two complementary questions are added to this question. One, what will be Thapa's role if the Congress unanimously sets the date for the general convention before the election? Two, what will he do if he does not set it and pushes it after the election by winning the majority? 

If the Congress reaches the conclusion of holding a regular or special general convention before the election, it will send a message that he has been able to make a decisive intervention within the party. Which will be a positive thing for his future politics. He will get an opportunity to compete openly for the leadership. He has repeatedly raised the issue of restructuring, not general reform, in the Congress. On this occasion, he will be able to present a roadmap for party restructuring. He will get an opportunity to expand ideological/political discussions within the party. Most importantly, he is raising the issue of a Congress without factions. He will get the opportunity to be a link between the Congress divided by factions due to various interests and demands. He will get a chance to test himself for leadership. The Congress will get a home run in the elections with a new leadership. 

But what if the Kathakali establishment pushes the date of the general convention by force of numbers and brings it to the end of the elections? Will Thapa be ready to face that complex environment? In that case, he has some more options. For example, first, to hold a special general convention of the Congress by gathering 54 percent of the signatory general convention delegates. A judicial question may arise on the legitimacy of the leadership of such a general convention held against the decision of the majority of the Central Committee. Therefore, to hold a general convention by rebelling and also to fight a judicial resolution for the legitimacy of the leadership.

Second, to play the role of the opposition within the party. To write a 'note of dissent' against the decision taken by the Central Committee. To fight with the old leadership from within the party. To raise awareness among Congress workers from the center to the local level by raising the issue of party restructuring. 

Third, to take the lead in building a new political force. After the Gen-G movement, a phase of intense polarization has begun in Nepali politics. The old and so-called strong parties are becoming defensive and weak. New parties are emerging, and the campaign to dissolve and restructure the old ones is ongoing. The general public and voters are looking for a trustworthy political party. At this time, there is also an option for Thapa to move forward by forming a new political front. 

Thapa, who has created an image of a dynamic and strong leader since student politics, will certainly not remain inactive in the coming days. He is a leader who has grown politically by fighting and clashing within the party. He has a background of fighting with the then party president Girija Prasad Koirala during the student political period. Therefore, he does not have the opportunity to get involved in political discussions. And, as time is passing, there is no opportunity to move forward in this way. It is too late to bring the party to a decision point immediately.