China-India approaching in US shadow

China is symbolized in world politics as a dragon, India as an elephant, and the US as a bird, representing China's rising power, India's stable and stable outlook, and America's global dominance, respectively.

वैशाख ९, २०८२

गोपाल खनाल

China-India approaching in US shadow

US President Donald Trump has imposed 145 percent tariffs on rival powerhouse China, which could reach 245 percent. China has also imposed a retaliatory 125 percent tariff on the US. In other words, the US-China trade war has risen to the second tense level in the world. The battle of the superpowers was also seen in Tiktok (30) through trading technology. The US trade war with China started in 2018 under Trump's first administration.

The US has turned its old strategic partners into enemies and rivals into strategic friends. The biggest example of that is the 'transatlantic' conflict i.e. the tension between America and Europe, the tension across the Andhra ocean. While the US and Western Europe have been strategic allies since World War II. As America declared its own wars, Europe followed suit. 

In return, rival Russian President Vladimir Putin has become a good friend of Trump. However, this seems more tactical than long-term. When this relationship enters the Arctic region, i.e. the Northern Sea Route, from there the clash of interests breaks down. Now that Trump has announced that he will put Greenland and Canada on the US map, it is the Arctic route that he has put on the list of future threats. Intercontinental nuclear missiles in Russia and China are becoming a point of tension for Trump. Similarly, the mining of rare earths in Ukraine, which is needed for semiconductors and chips that the US does not have, is also targeted by the US. 60 percent of this rare earth is in China, which is another terror for Trump. 

He has also started dialogue with Iran, North Korea and Turkey, which are American adversities. There is no need for another example to say that he is reviving the 'Munro Doctrine' which is hostile even to his neighboring strategic friends like Canada and Mexico. For that, if necessary, he uses 'muscle diplomacy', a sample of which was seen in the Panama Canal issue, and is now being seen in Greenland and Ukraine. The tariff war is also consistent with that. 

But Trump is not limited to that. Looking at his administration for the last three months, his first target of competition is China, which he seems intent on controlling. A dozen more examples can be given for them. It seems that he is going to make the Indo-Pacific region the 'heartland' of geopolitical conflict. Which means coming to China's 'back yard' (surroundings) and increasing anti-China activities. To make a "peaceful and independent Indo-Pacific" but China 

It seems that he has gone ahead with the policy of being surrounded by his traditional partners. For that, they are trying to use Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, where US military bases are stationed. Will try to use Taiwan card, but probably will fail. 

Similarly, he has tried to strategically use China's neighbor India. Looking at the policies of Modi and Jaishankar, I don't think that India will be used against China in that way. Because India has developed foreign relations based on its interests. Where there is benefit, there it reaches India. Perhaps understanding the same Delhi policy, Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs has suggested that India not become a partner in the US strategy against China. Geopolitical analysts like Sax, Kishore Muhabbani, and Martin Jacques have declared that China will lead the world in the future. And, India should support China. 

But Trump's imposition of only 25 percent tariff on India means an attempt to use the same strategy. While welcoming Modi at the White House, he called Modi a good friend but said that since he is a 'tariff king', he would impose 'reciprocal tariffs', although he did not do so. India also did not immediately impose retaliatory tariffs on the US like China did. Instead, there is an analysis in New Delhi that there is an opportunity for India to replace China's exports to America. As the Nepali businessmen said, there is an opportunity for Nepal to increase its exports to America because of only 10 percent tax. 

This article is not a forward-looking analysis of Trump's policies and actions. Instead, it is argued that Nepal's neighbors India and China should come to a common world view based on that policy. In doing so, its organizational initiative has also been revealed to be very effective. It is assumed that how China and India can lead the future world order.

First, let's look at why Asian leadership. It has some historical aspects. The power of the legacy of history is now gradually breaking down. One power does not always dominate. As much as the West has done, they are at the forefront. First, the Europeans, particularly the Spanish and the Portuguese, ruled the world by dividing the geography among themselves, followed by the Dutch, the British, and the French. Although Europe was destroyed in the First World War, the United States emerged as a power, but it was only after the Second World War that it was able to replace the European powers. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US-led world order is considered to be the end of the American era after three decades. The world order is now moving like an ecosystem, where the rise of Asia is a natural rebalancing. 

According to that, a new journey of understanding is beginning between India and China, which is not only for regional unity and cooperation but also for global order. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi share a shared view of giving Asian leadership to the world. 

First let's see some examples of it. The latest example is: a letter sent by Chinese President Xi to Indian President Draupadi Murmu on 1 April 2025 on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of Sino-Indian diplomatic relations. Xi emphasized on the bilateral relationship and called the relationship "Dragon Elephant Tango" in his own language. Which means, peaceful co-existence and strategic partnership between the two countries, coordinated approach and action. China is symbolized in world politics as a dragon, India as an elephant, and the US as a chicken, representing China's rising power, India's stable, balanced outlook, and America's global dominance, respectively. Xi said he is ready to work with India to enhance strategic mutual trust and coordination on key international issues.

India and China have already agreed to forget the relationship after the violent face-off in 2020 and move forward with a new relationship in 2024. Looking at the subsequent activities, there were signs that India and China were returning to the era of understanding. A

is another example, President Xi's address in April (9–10) focused on neighborhood issues. In which he mentioned that he has given priority to the neighborhood and has announced that he will solve the problems there "properly" and cooperate for common development. In the midst of the tariff war with the US, Beijing has announced a policy of strategic partnership with 14 neighbors including India and Russia. There are many such talks and activities that signal a new beginning in bilateral relations.

Strengthening the structure established as an alternative to Western domination, China-India must come together to make the next century Asian. What can be the platforms and ideas of those collaborations? Let's look at some selected examples. 

First: Multipolar worldview. Both India and China are opposed to the US-led world system. Because both these emerging powers have advocated a multipolar world order. Because they are now seeking an interventionist role in world affairs, which can only be addressed through multipolarity. But China is also not in favor of enmity with America, India is a strategic partner. Perhaps Delhi and Beijing have understood Henry Kissinger's statement that 'It is dangerous to be America's enemy, but it is deadly to be a friend', so it may take time to surface without practicing a strong partnership. Although India is a member of the US-led Quad, it has been stating that it should not be taken as an anti-China alliance. India has been adopting a policy of multi-alignment in a multi-polar world. Strategic autonomy is Jaishankar's core policy. 

second: financial interests. India and China are each other's largest markets in the world. Annual bilateral trade in 2023-24 is $118 billion and growing. Trade is increasingly interdependent. It is proven that today's world is the world of business. Therefore, it is clear that India will not choose the American market by devaluing the Chinese market or will not make the relationship with China worse at the cost of increasing export relations with the US. But both have to address India's trade deficit with China of around $87 billion.

Third: Common platform. India and China are active participants in BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and G-20. The purpose of these forums is to reform international economic institutions, promote South-South cooperation and fight for climate justice, which Trump is championing. BRICS accounts for 30 percent of the world's gross domestic product and established a new development bank in 2014, challenging US-dominated structures such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. China and India have strong cooperation in the BRICS, with China accounting for 62 percent of total GDP and India's 12 percent. Not only that, countries like China, India, and Russia are ready to do business in their national currencies instead of dollars. Trump is also alarmed by the BRICS campaign of 'Dedlerization'. 

Fourth: Leadership of the Global South. 130 countries are now participating in the Global South, which started under the leadership of India and China. The GDP of these countries is between 53 and 55 trillion dollars, which is higher than that of the Global North. The Global South has advanced alternatives to US-dominated institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The Global South has become a common platform for India and China to address issues in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

China, Japan and South Korea are forming a trilateral trade partnership to counter Trump's tariff war, the uncertainty it has fueled in global trade, and rising protectionism, a significant departure in itself. There are many such examples, due to which the future world will be the world of Asia, where Nepal's neighbors China and India will lead. 

Nepal is in favor of a multipolar world, more importantly China and India want to lead the future world order. If that happens, it will have a natural positive effect on Nepal. Which will help to address the national aspirations of 'Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepali'. 

गोपाल खनाल खनाल पत्रकार तथा राजनीतिक विष्लेषक हुन् । भूराजनीतिका विषयमा लेख्ने खनालकाे ‘भूराजनीति’ पुस्तक प्रकाशित छ ।

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