Among the many decisions of US President Donald Trump, the issue of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement has drawn the world's attention. Because the issue of climate change is the world's top priority. His executive order also halted climate finance support.

His opposition to the climate fund and the World Health Organization, and his decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in his previous term, were expected to return to his old ways. He not only expressed his strong dissatisfaction by making a decision on the day of swearing in, but also exposed irresponsibility. 

Last November, when the results of the election were coming, it was estimated that COP-29 could be affected by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC). In particular, there was doubt that the targets of the new climate finance would not be set at all.

The COP averted failure by securing new climate finance for climate action, though not as much as developing and poor countries had hoped. But throughout the conference, the influence of the oil producing countries was felt in every negotiation meeting. Trump's return gave the oil-producing nation power and support behind the scenes. Along with the host country, the impact was clearly seen in the expressions of the heads of government of those countries regarding climate change. 

America ranks first in the world in foreign development aid. At a time when global cooperation is needed to reduce the impact of climate change, which is becoming a major challenge, Trump's move has given a direct blow to efforts to achieve new climate action goals. However, the cancellation of the Foreign Development Assistance Mission has also affected the minimal programs of education, health and nutrition in the poor and developing countries of the world.

Calling fossil fuel as a gift of nature, it will increase the self-strength of the country that insists on rapid industrialization. But Trump has been criticized not only outside the country but also internally. Because traditional climate change and environmental leaders are outraged by his anti-climate science activities. In addition to the US government, there is also a large part of the support and cooperation coming from outside the country for climate action by industrial houses and individuals. 

In the last two years, if we look only at the disasters that the world has faced due to climate change, great damage has already been done. It is estimated that the coming days will be even worse. This hampers global efforts against climate change and deepens the environmental crisis. But Trump's decision has also opened the door to making other developed countries more responsible. If that happens, the coalition of countries will move forward from a new direction and climate action will continue.  impact on

climate diplomacy 

Some political circles within the US and especially business groups related to the coal, oil and natural gas industry have supported Trump's decision. They argue that restrictions on energy production and industrial activity due to the Paris Agreement have had a negative impact on the US economy. But this support is seen only in limited areas. 

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Trump's dependence on fossil fuels "Frankenstein's monster" at the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland. At the same event, the President of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, criticized Trump's decision and expressed her firm commitment to the Paris Agreement. She called the Paris Agreement the "lifeline of the world" and described withdrawing from it as an "anti-human rights move".

Trump's decision could prompt the European Union, Japan, Canada, and others to form a new alliance to advance climate action independently. That could open the door to the creation of a climate action mechanism that is less dependent on US involvement or that isolates it. The

will give developing countries, who often look to the US for support in climate finance, an opportunity to find alternative funding and mechanisms. It can be estimated that China has the ability to create division between America and its partner countries through climate strategy. 

Trump's decision has given a new twist to the issue of climate change. The balance of power between the Global North (developed countries) and the Global South (developing and poor countries) is likely to shift. Trump's move has prompted a blueprint for new relationships and alliances between China, the European Union and the Global South. Technology and financial cooperation will be decisive for the voice and sustainable development of small nations in the coming era.

China's influence in the Global North is continuously increasing, while China has become a decisive force in the Global South. Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement is likely to create divisions within the Global North. In such a situation, China will present itself as a responsible and effective leader and will try to strengthen its relations with the European Union. Cooperation and shared responsibility for climate action would pave the way for China's global leadership while further weakening America's credibility.

Countries in the Global South are affected differently. For example: China is the first in the world with 32.88 percent carbon emissions. However, China itself is stepping up to the plate by providing grants and low-interest loans to countries in the Global South that are cooperating with it to reduce carbon emissions.

There is a huge difference in per capita carbon emissions between citizens of the Global North/South. China's recently developed green policies aim to reduce industrial and personal carbon emissions in the Global South. It helps China to be at the forefront of global climate action. 

Several small countries in the Global South have zero emissions. The countries of this group, which have different contributions to global climate change, do not have a common vision for climate action and do not pursue common interests in international climate negotiations. They are organized into more than a dozen subgroups.

There is no single climate strategy for the Global South. Some are in a role to fulfill obligations and responsibilities while others need financial support. The countries of the Global South, suffering from the greenhouse gases, pollution and disasters emitted by the countries of the Global North, have started adopting green policies.

Therefore, the emerging powers of the Global South—Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa—could support China's every move if there was only a small advance on climate action. Trump's move brings closer the possibility of a power shift from the Global North to the Global South. But since this is a multilateral issue, the capacity, leadership, activism and cooperation of those countries will be determined accordingly. Also India's role remains central.

An opportunity for China

When America loses its responsible image, China can present itself as a leader. China can exploit the vacuum of global leadership on climate change to its strategic, economic and diplomatic interests. China can offer developing countries the necessary financial support and technology cooperation for climate action and renewable energy promotion. It will help to strengthen relations with those countries and improve the diplomatic image. 

As the US continues to promote polluting traditional industries, China can gain a competitive advantage through green energy production and exports. Because the Paris Agreement prioritizes pollution control and sustainable production. He is investing heavily in green energy, solar panels, electric vehicles and can increase his dominance in green technology. This move could establish China as the largest producer and exporter of technology.

The Global North (especially the US and Europe) has been playing a leading role in the global issue of climate change. The leadership potential of the Global North will now decline. This gives the emerging countries of the Global South an opportunity to play a diplomatic role. Likewise, China will easily win the trust of the Global South if it wants to. Trump's loss of support within the Global North will be an opportunity for China.

When the European Union and the Global South unite against Trump's decision, China will get an opportunity to further strengthen this alliance. He could exploit the weak side of Trump's decision, presenting himself as an alternative leader and supporter of sustainable development. Even now, China is increasing its dominance and partnership in the countries of G-77, BRICS, ASEAN, Oceania (except Australia and New Zealand), Africa, South America, and Latin America. It will be difficult for America to withstand its influence and pressure. 

Nepal has to change its working style

In the last years, Nepal has been continuously experiencing major disasters due to climate change. Floods in Kailali and Kathmandu, landslides in Thame, landslides in Manang-Mustang, floods in Sudurpaschim and Melamchi are climatic disasters. We need huge amounts of money to compensate for the damage caused by these disasters and for climate adaptation. There is a huge difference in the budget required for the information system to be expanded for disaster risk reduction, the implementation of NAP and now the implementation of 'NDC 3'. For all these works, it is necessary for us to leave the mouth of donor agencies and give priority to national initiatives.