The fall of Al-Assad has been called an unexpected fall of power by the powers. Such is the nature of the fall of autocracy.
People will do anything in the spirit of excitement and revenge, and when decades of living under fear suddenly come to an end, the material symbols of old power and greed can be seen destroying Syria's main administrative building. Ordinary Syrian citizens may find it uncomfortable to watch the gleeful looting of former ruler Assad's residence in Damascus.
The items that Syrian civilians are picking up from the ruins of the palace are not just excavations of old memories, but symbolic revenge. Such is the reactionary style of popular public outrage seen all over the world. Recently, before the events in Syria, the sight of the government residence of the fledgling Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka is remarkable.
When autocracies fell in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, not every coup there involved widespread looting. In most countries, structures and monuments were preserved by the conquering powers before the invasion. Some of these developments have made it clear that there was a complete lack of any political well-intentioned rebel forces in Syria.
The desire to preserve the memory of the fall of autocracy has been demonstrated by many events in the world. A history of mass displays of Idi Amin's secret police identity cards, Soviet-era Kremlin telephones, fragments of the Berlin Wall and other memorabilia from places where autocracies ended abruptly does not make the pain in Damascus unique. But what is strange is the intelligence of the American world. Why did the American-led "Five-I" intelligence system not get the immediate information that the Assad administration was in a state of exit?
Al-Assad's fall has been called an unexpected fall of power by the power nations. But such is the nature of autocracy that, until such an explosion occurs, such powers appear unified and impenetrable. At least Assad was not hanged from an electric pole like Benito Mussolini, or beaten like Muammar al-Gaddafi, or crucified like Saddam Hussein. This is his good fortune.
As the five-decade-long Assad-descendant authoritarian regime is collapsing, the hegemonic world order of the West and the Middle Eastern regional playground it imposes have been badly damaged. Syria will also fail in the future, if it becomes a geopolitical battleground for the renewed competition of external powers.
Syria can only flourish naturally if given the chance to develop independently. "Syrian civil society is suffering from years of war fatigue and diminishing hope. The future cannot depend on external forces or temporary geopolitical changes. The future must be built from the bottom up' (Washington Post, December 13).
Only if Syria moves administratively but with some liberality will millions of refugees be allowed to return home. Janine Di Giovanni, a fellow of the European Foreign Council and a former Syrian journalist, writes - 'All this would not have been possible without Turkey's tacit support. Ankara bitterly opposed Assad for 13 years, supporting various opposition groups and sheltering some four million Syrian refugees in its country. Collaborated with HTS along with other Shaktigroup manufacturing. HTC has been ruling the border region of Turkey, where about 3 million Syrians live. Those people still depend on international support to preserve the Turkey-Russia deal (Washington Post, December 13).
The Syrian conflict turned the already complicated relationship between Turkey and the US into a strategic nightmare. In 2014, the US sent arms to the People's Protection Units (YPG) of the Syrian Kurds, leading to a turning point in the relationship.
This group has been declared a terrorist by Turkey. US support for the YPG was a strategic necessity as a result of the long-term inability to get Turkey to agree to suppress the Islamic State (ISIS). Washington's move turned out to be suicidal after Ankara ignored the activities of ISIS inside Turkey's borders. Erdoğan called America's decision to arm its enemy a betrayal.
Russia took advantage of Turkey's deteriorating relationship with the US. Turkey's interests collided again when Moscow intervened in Syria in 2015 to save the Assad regime. Due to Russia's strong position in Syria, Erdogan saw no other option but to cooperate with Vladimir Putin. As a result, Turkey was able to intervene militarily against the Kurds in northern Syria in 2019 only with Moscow's permission.
Erdoğan's purchase of the S-400 Russian missile defense system sparked a row with the US and NATO, forcing him to trudge to the Putin-Xi Jinping summit in Kazan some time ago. But with the fall of Assad, the balance of power has shifted in Erdoğan's favor. Russia's weak position has not only given Turkey independence in Syria, it has also allowed Moscow's influence in those places to become its successor.
Assad's fall will also benefit Turkey in its relations with Iran. These two countries have long been regional rivals. In Syria, Iran-backed forces have isolated Turkish-backed groups in some areas while coordinating with the US-backed YPG to fight ISIS. Iraq's state-sponsored paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces and Iran-backed militias have further complicated the fight against Turkey's Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
The PKK is an armed separatist group active in Turkey, designated as a terrorist organization by the US and Turkey. In the South Caucasus, too, Ankara and Tehran have pursued different objectives. Turkey has strengthened cooperation with Azerbaijan, but Iran sees this as a threat. Iran's friendly relationship with Armenia, which has disputed ties with Turkey, reflects a peculiar Middle Eastern power relationship.
But in an environment where the Israeli war is destroying the 'resistance axis' of Iranian protection in Gaza, the fall of Assad has actually weakened Iran. While losing Syria limits Iran's ability to project power, Turkey opens the way for alliances in Iraq, Syria and the South Caucasus region.
Assad's downfall has also provided Erdogan with an opportunity to reconcile with Washington. US military presence in Syria and US cooperation with the YPG have strained bilateral relations. In 2019, Ankara ordered military strikes against Washington's staunch Syrian allies as soon as President Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. An angry Trump responded by imposing sanctions on Turkey and deploying a small number of troops to protect Syrian oil facilities. The Trump-Erdoğan wish to withdraw US troops has come close to being fulfilled during Trump's second term.
With the start of Trump's tenure, Turkey will commit to keeping ISIS under control and the US will not agree otherwise if there is an agreement to withdraw its troops from Syria.
Following Assad's surprise exit, the interim administration has been completely taken over by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It would not be unreasonable to assume that a second version of this is taking place in Damascus, just as the Taliban took control after the US fled Kabul, itself defeated by two decades of brutal attacks.
Lenin's famous thesis (State and Revolution: 1918) that 'there is no guarantee that revolution will always lead to a progressive path' is repeated in Damascus. That too, when the dictator of two and a half decades is taking refuge in Lenin's former country, it has been revealed as a strange irony that the group that the American world has made a terrorist agreement with and that Moscow aims to destroy by launching troops in Syria, claims a disintegrated state.
The group has taken over the Damascus administration, which Iran considers its main enemy. What a twist that Israel is bombing post-Assad Syria while the rest of the Arab world keeps silent as if nothing has happened. But there is no possibility that HTC Nike Al-Sara will be able to permanently rule Syria as a Sunni dominated country like in Idlib (The Economist: 2024).
where the main 4 and more than half a dozen subsidiary groups with different names have been running the administration in different provinces, districts and regions of Syria. Finally, the so-called democratic wave of the 2011 Arab Spring has come to a tragic end in Damascus after a decade. 'What will happen next is uncertain, but it is sure to have a profound impact on the region (The Economist: December 14).' It is self-evident that their only hope is to return home regardless of the administration. 3 million Syrians live in Turkey. Turkey, as a supporter of the HTS, must be under this pressure to reach a deal with the new Damascus administration.
Only leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been seen openly celebrating the fall of Assad. But Erdogan is ignoring the fact that Ankara's policy of building up Syria by installing Kurds and other minorities as proxy powers will further undermine the decades-long desire for Kurdish autonomy. It is unlikely that the Western world will give an open concession to Erdoğan's wishes.
The various power centers are busy announcing the winners and losers of the decisive moment. The Assad regime itself, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah can be considered defeated powers. However, making a list of winners is not easy. But Assad's fall has made Turkey's influence and prestige important in Syria and the wider region's geopolitics.
In northern Syria, Turkey's support and years of military and administrative dominance have certainly made opposition forces emerge as powerful forces. The ability of the Syrian opposition to govern remains to be tested. But only if the HTS and other rebel groups realize that the task of building a new Syria is much more difficult and challenging than overthrowing the Assad regime, political development can take a natural course.
It is known to everyone that the government has fallen in Syria, but neither the rebel group nor the world-ruling power center seems to care about what awaits the country. Western geostrategists are calling for a non-sectarian interim government and political process, beginning with a new regional and international bloc to assist in reconstruction and rehabilitation (Foreign Policy: 2024).
Aleppo and Damascus, which followed Islam in a secular way until the fourth generation of human civilization and the fourth generation of the Prophet Muhammad, are currently struggling in a situation similar to Libya, where the state has collapsed with the collapse of the regime. There is a complete lack of need to maintain the essential institutions and mechanisms of a Syrian state. By 2017, the ISIS terrorist dominance was eliminated by the strange alliance of America, Russia, Turkey and Iran, and after 5 years, Syria has reached a harmless situation where no one is ready to take responsibility.
Many Syrians patiently accepted the new development, believing it would be far better than the Assad regime. In a discussion at Chatham House, Haidhaid said – 'With the regime falling, people may be less likely to show tolerance than before' (Wall Street Journal, December 13). The strategy of the power center cannot become the policy of a democratic world order. As President-elect Trump has given isolationist rhetoric that the US will not be involved in the fall and rise of Syria, that could never have been US policy. The
Trump rhetoric is only a promotion of more genocidal trends directed at innocent Syrians and exasperated Benjamin Netanyahu. In violation of the 1967 UN agreement and the 1973 agreement, Netanyahu has further shaken regional powers by seizing the Golan Heights. It is not difficult to understand that this Netanyahu's audacity was fueled by Trump's tweet.
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