The India Meteorological Department has released a forecast that monsoon rainfall will be limited to 90 percent of the long-term average due to the possible effects of El Nino.
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The signs of a weak monsoon in India this year have become stronger. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reduced the monsoon rainfall forecast to 90 percent of the long-term average, keeping in mind the possible impact of El Nino. The department released its second monsoon forecast on Friday. The forecast issued on April 13 had predicted only 92 percent of the rainfall during the southwest monsoon period from June to September. According to the department, 96 percent to 104 percent of the 50-year average of 87 cm of rainfall during the four-month monsoon period is considered 'normal rainfall'.
The department has said that rainfall is very likely to be below normal in most parts of India in June 2026. However, some parts of northwest and northeast India, some places in the southern peninsula and some isolated areas of central India are expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall.
India's Earth Sciences Ministry Secretary M Ravichandran has said that the signs of El Niño developing may weaken the monsoon. According to the department, the ENSO condition, which is currently in a neutral state in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is gradually moving towards the El Niño phase. The latest climate models have shown the possibility of El Niño developing during the southwest monsoon period. When El Niño develops, the sea surface temperature of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is higher than normal.
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The department had estimated that the monsoon would enter India from Kerala on May 26. But the latest situation has shown signs of a slight delay in the arrival of the monsoon, according to Indian media reports.
Although the monsoon has entered most of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the southern Bay of Bengal, it has not yet moved up from there. The southwest monsoon first brings rain to Kerala and then spreads northwards to other states. It accounts for about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall.
At least 60 percent of the 14 weather stations, including Kerala, should receive 2.5 mm or more of rainfall for two consecutive days. The westerly wind blowing at a height of about 4.5 km should be strong at a speed of 28 to 37 km per hour. The department says that the monsoon has not yet fully entered since none of these criteria have been met so far.
India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said that the southwest monsoon is expected to spread further over the Arabian Sea and some parts of the Bay of Bengal and that the monsoon will arrive in India within seven days. Normally, the monsoon arrives in India from the southern state of Kerala on June 1.
This year's monsoon: Meteorological Department predicts above-average rainfall
