Former Prime Minister and UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, who has been elected six times from Jhapa, did not focus much on his constituency in previous elections. He would attend one or two meetings, give speeches, and then move on to other areas to create an atmosphere in favor of the remaining UML candidates.

During the 2079 elections, Oli had said at a rally organized in Kankai Municipality-3, Surunga, that there is no problem in my constituency, so I will go all over the country to make other candidates win. In the past, no one doubted that he would win easily.

However, this time, the situation has changed after former Kathmandu Metropolitan City mayor and senior leader of the National Independent Party (NISP) Balendra Shah filed his candidacy from Jhapa-5. According to sources close to Oli, he has spent 16 days in Jhapa in 5 weeks since the commission formed under the leadership of Gauri Bahadur Karki to investigate the repression of the Gen-G movement lifted its ban on Magh 4.

After registering his nomination, he initially met with workers at the Kamaksh Hotel in Damak, but recently he has been continuously communicating with workers and voters by staying in a tent. Oli, who reached Jhapa for the fourth time last Saturday for the election campaign, met workers at the house of local UML worker Gunaraj Thapa all day on Tuesday.

In the evening, he tried to get closer to the locals by going to the Shrimad Bhagwat Purana organized at the local level. ‘He did not have any formal program on Tuesday, he met with workers, voters and representatives of fraternal organizations at his place of residence,’ Dipendra Dahal of Oli’s secretariat told Kantipur.

Oli, who used to prefer speeches and meetings in the past, has been advised by his close associates and workers not to speak much this time and instead focus on meeting voters. That is why he has been prioritizing meetings with every voter, focusing on Jhapa-5 lately.

‘Perhaps it has occurred to him that his speeches may have a more negative impact on candidates from other constituencies besides Jhapa-5, which is why he has not been invited outside much. "I hear some UML leaders and cadres saying that the party has benefited from Oli's focus on Jhapa-5," says analyst Sagar Shiwakoti, who is also a member of Readers Jhapa. "However, the way he has focused on Jhapa this time shows how seriously he has taken the risk."

According to those close to Oli, he initially did not believe that Balendra would come to compete with him. Oli and the UML ranks were analyzing that he would not take that risk because of the strong organizational hold of the UML. But after registering his candidacy, in a conversation with Kantipur, he commented that "Ravi (RSVP President) is a fool" and that he had sent him to Jhapa-5 to defeat Balendra.

Oli has become serious because of the 'craze' seen in favor of Balendra before he filed his nomination on 6th Magh and the crowds he has seen wherever he goes since then. Especially in the urban areas of Jhapa-5, there is still a similar wave in favor of Balendra. Ronish Adhikari, 36, of Damak, says, "I have seen Bal many times, and he also played a role in the recent Gen-G movement." He, who is in the auto business, said that most people like him have changed their minds this time. Understanding this situation, Oli has focused on Jhapa and is in favor of protecting his party's votes. Some locals also accused Balendra of not talking to voters and only traveling by car. However, recently, he has also changed his strategy and intensified his two-way dialogue with voters. A few days ago in Damak, when asked why Jhapa-5, he said, "That's where I can do things for Gen-G."

Due to Oli's increased activism, Balendra has also started coming to Jhapa and increasing his meetings with voters, and has also started being active in dialogue with them. Balendra's wife Sabina Kafle, who is also an assistant from his secretariat, is also active in Jhapa-5. Surendra Bajgain, an associate working in the Jhapa secretariat, claims that their victory is certain, saying, "We will win by 60,000 votes, and after that, we will stop counting."

According to the locals, although Balendra seemed to dominate Jhapa-5 in the initial days, recently Oli has been creating an atmosphere in his favor by luring disgruntled workers. However, UML workers themselves are not confident about the results.

Oli's 'good influence' is visible in Kamal Rural Municipality, 8 wards of Gauradaha Municipality, and 4 wards of Gaurigunj Rural Municipality, which are all in Jhapa-5. 41-year-old Sukmaya Lawati, who was met at Sumnima Chowk in Kamal Rural Municipality-7, said that she would vote for UML. She told Kantipur that the village has developed because of UML, “So far, UML has been developing, I vote for Surya.” However, she says her children will vote for Ghanti. “The children are on one side, we are on the other side,” she said. “So far, I have not felt that I should choose another party.”

Buddhamaya Kerung Limbu (47), on the other hand, said that she is a farmer who works in the soil and will vote for the Hark Sampang-led Shram Sanskriti Party. “This time, we will look for the new, the new is the soil,” she said, referring to the party’s candidate Sameer Tamang. She said that the Ghanti (RSVP) candidate did not come to her house, saying that he would “run from place to place, without even saying namaste.” “The candidate has said that if it is difficult tomorrow, we should also recognize him, so we will vote for the soil,” she said.

In Jhapa-5, the population excluding Brahmin and Chhetri communities is 44 percent. The population of tribals is about 26 percent, of which the Shram Sanskriti Party seems to have attracted the attention of many voters. There are 40,786 voters in Kamal Rural Municipality.

Eight wards of Gauradaha Municipality also fall in Jhapa-5, with 41,475 voters there. “I used to vote for UML in the past, but I think I should change my vote this time,” said Khadga Bahadur Baraili of Gauradaha-5 School District.

The number of voters in the four wards of Gauradaha Rural Municipality is 15,119. Saraswati Pariyar (55), who runs a sewing shop in Gauradaha Bazaar, also said that the mood is in favor of Ghanti right now. "I have thought of looking at the new one this time, but I have not yet decided on who to give it to," she said, "Let's see, there is still some time left." In the Damak Bazaar area, which has 65,997 voters, most UML supporters did not want to say who they would vote for. Ghanti's supporters, however, vote openly. In Gaurigunj, the situation is a little different, with UML flags visible everywhere in that area.

However, in some places, there are also many people who say they will vote for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). For example, 82-year-old Chandra Prasad Rajbanshi, who is also a former police officer, said that this time he will vote for Ghanti without thinking about anyone else. "The government says it won't let the bell ring, but now it's ingrained in my mind," he told Kantipur. "Once I was a staunch UML supporter, but now I vote for the new generation."

Some are questioning Balendra's recent pledge for Jhapa-5, which did not include the issue of the 'Damak Industrial Park' to be built with Chinese assistance. Park Construction Committee Chairman and UML leader Govinda Thapa has accused Balendra of 'engaging in a campaign to ban Chinese investment in Nepal.' UML is trying to divert voters' attention by saying that the pledge made public by Balendra, including the industrial park, has nothing new and is a plan put forward by Oli himself. However, local journalist Atmaram Rajbanshi of Gaurigunj says, ‘No matter what we talk about organizational power now, there is a craze for the new among the voters. Some may be in favor of the new, some may not understand it. That is a different matter.’

In the past, Oli used to come to Jhapa-5 as a candidate for the country’s Prime Minister, so even Congress-Maoist-RPP workers used to vote for him, he added, ‘But, the situation has changed now, the atmosphere is different after the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) brought its own Prime Ministerial candidate to compete with him.’ He also said that a leader of that level had never challenged Oli in Jhapa in the past.

He has represented Jhapa in parliament six times in 2048, 051, 056, 070, 074 and 079. In the first Constituent Assembly election of 064, Maoist candidate Bishwadeep Lingden defeated him by a margin of about 1,200 votes. He won the second Constituent Assembly election of 2074 with a larger margin of votes than the 2079 House of Representatives election. 

In the 2074 election, Oli got 57,139 votes, while the Congress official got 28,297 votes. In the proportional representation, the UML got 35,872 votes. In the 2079 election, Oli got the highest number of votes among the candidates across the country, 52,319. His closest rival, Nepali Congress's Khagendra Pandav Adhikari, got 23,743 votes, and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh candidate Suresh Kumar Pokharel got 11,748 votes. At that time, Oli was also supported by the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). In return, the UML supported RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden in his constituency No. 3. At that time, the Maoist Center had formed an electoral alliance with the Congress. 

Before that, there was an alliance between the UML and the Maoist Center in the 2074 election. Due to alliances and coordination, Maoist cadres were not able to vote for their candidates for a long time. However, now the Nepali Communist Party, which is now formed with the Maoists, has nominated young leader Ranjit Tamang as its candidate. 

‘The cadres of the Nepali Communist Party, which is formed with the former Maoist Center, are getting to vote for their candidates for the first time in 12 years,’ says the then Maoist Center’s municipal president Kul Bahadur Basnet (Ravi), ‘This has brought enthusiasm to everyone.’