Oli, who first held a few meetings and then traveled the country seeking votes for other candidates, is limited to Jhapa 5 this time. Balendra, who has learned about his efforts to create an atmosphere in his favor, has also started prioritizing meetings and conversations with voters.
What you should know
Former Prime Minister and UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, who has been elected five times from Jhapa, did not focus much on his constituency in previous elections. He would attend one or two meetings, give speeches, and then move on to other areas to create an atmosphere in favor of the UML candidate.
During the 2079 elections, Oli had said at a meeting organized in Kankai Municipality-3, Surunga, that there is no problem in my constituency, so I will travel all over the country to help other candidates win. In the past, he did not have any doubts that he would win easily.
However, this time, the situation has changed after Balendra Shah, former mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City and senior leader of the National Independent Party (NISP), filed his candidacy from Jhapa 5 to challenge him.
According to sources close to Oli, he has spent 16 days in Jhapa in a month since the Gauri Bahadur Karki-led commission formed to investigate the repression of the Gen-G movement on 4th Magh lifted the ban.
After registering his nomination, he initially met with disgruntled workers and voters at the Kamaksha Hotel in Damak, but recently he has been staying in a tent and is continuously communicating with disgruntled workers and voters. Oli, who came to Jhapa for the fourth time last Saturday for the election campaign, met at least 50 more workers at the house of local UML worker Gunaraj Thapa throughout the day on Tuesday.
In the evening, he tried to get closer to the locals by visiting the Shrimad Bhagwat Purana organized at the local level. 'He did not have any formal program on Tuesday, he met with workers, voters and representatives of fraternal organizations at the place where he was staying,' Dipendra Dahal of Oli's secretariat told Kantipur.
Oli, who used to prefer speeches and meetings in the past, has been advised by his close associates and cadres not to speak much this time, but to focus on meeting voters. That is why he has recently changed his strategy and is prioritizing conversations with each voter by focusing on Jhapa 5.
‘Perhaps he has come to the conclusion that speaking to candidates other than Jhapa 5 could have a more negative impact, so I hear some UML leaders and cadres saying that the party has benefited from Oli focusing on Jhapa 5,’ says analyst Sagar Shiwakoti, who is also a member of Readers Jhapa. ‘However, the way he has focused on Jhapa this time shows how seriously Oli has taken the risk.’
Earlier, some locals accused RSVP candidate Balendra of not talking to voters and only driving around. However, recently, he has also changed his strategy and intensified his two-way dialogue with voters. A few days ago in Damak, when asked why Jhapa 5, he had said, "That's what I can do for Genji."
According to Oli's close associates, he initially did not believe that Balendra would come to compete with him. Oli and the UML were analyzing that he would not take that risk because of the strong organizational hold of the UML. A month ago, in an interview with Kantipur, he had claimed that he was trying to send Balendra to Jhapa 5 to defeat him, saying, "Ravi (RSVP President) is a liar."
However, the craze seen in Balendra's favor before filing his nomination on 6th Magh and the crowds of people he has seen wherever he has gone since then were indicating otherwise. Especially in the urban areas of Jhapa 5, most people openly say that they will vote for the RSVP's election symbol, the bell, even now.
36-year-old Ronish Adhikari from Damak said, 'I have seen Ba many times, and he also played a role in the recent Gen-G movement.' He, who is doing auto business, said that most people like him have changed their minds this time.
Understanding this situation, Oli has quietly focused on Jhapa and is in favor of protecting his party's votes. In the 2079 BS election, UML had secured 35,872 votes on the proportional representation side.
Oli had secured the highest number of votes among the candidates across the country, 52,319 votes. His nearest rival, Khagendra Pandav Adhikari of the Nepali Congress, had secured 23,743 votes, while Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh candidate Suresh Kumar Pokharel had secured 11,748 votes.
At that time, Oli was also supported by the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). In return, RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden was supported by UML in his Jhapa constituency No. 3. At that time, the Maoist Center supported the Nepali Congress candidate.
Before that, in 2074, the UML and the Maoist Center were united under the NCP. Due to the alliance and coordination, Maoist cadres had not been able to vote for their candidate for a long time.
However, the Nepali Communist Party, which is now a coalition of the Maoists, has nominated young leader Ranjit Tamang as its candidate. ‘The cadres of the Nepali Communist Party (a party formed by the former Maoist Center) are getting to vote for their candidate for the first time in 12 years,’ said Kul Bahadur Basnet (Ravi), the then municipal president of the Maoist Center. ‘This has brought enthusiasm to everyone.’
The party’s candidate Tamang is also asking for votes with the slogan ‘Vote for geography, not Google’, explaining that all the other candidates are from outside Jhapa 5.
The RPP has nominated Marvel businessman Laxmi Sangraula as its candidate in Jhapa 5. In such a situation, Oli has the challenge of protecting the organizational vote of the UML. It is possible that he has prioritized meeting voters and cadres by focusing on Jhapa.
According to the locals, although Balendra seemed to dominate Jhapa 5 in the initial days, recently Oli has been trying to lure disgruntled workers and use the atmosphere in his favor. However, UML workers say that he needs to work harder.
He has represented Jhapa in parliament 6 times in 2048, 2051, 2056, 2070, 2074 and 2079. In 2064, Maoist candidate Bishwadeep Lingden defeated him by a margin of about 1,200 votes. He won by a larger margin in 2074 than in the 2079 election.
While Oli got 57,139 votes, Congress officials got 28,297 votes. Oli's 'good' presence is still seen in Kamal Rural Municipality, 8 wards of Gauradaha Municipality, and 4 wards of Gauriganj Rural Municipality, which are all in Jhapa 5.
Sukmaya Lawati, 41, who was met at Sumnima Chowk, Kamal Rural Municipality-7, said that she would vote for UML. She told Kantipur that development in the village was due to UML, “So far, UML has been doing it, I will vote for Surya.” However, she says that her children will vote for Ghanti. “Our children are on one side, we are on the other side,” she said. “So far, we have not felt that we should choose another party.”
Buddhamaya Kerung Limbu (47), who is a farmer who works in the soil, said that she would vote for the Labor Culture Party led by Hark Sampang. “This is the time to look at the new, the new is the soil,” she said, referring to the party’s candidate Samir Tamang. She said that the Ghanti (RSVP) candidate did not come to her house and that he would walk 'running from place to place, without even saying namaste'.
'The candidate has said that if it is difficult the next day, he should also be recognized, so he will be buried in the ground,' she said. In Jhapa 5, the population excluding Brahmins and Chhetri communities is 44 percent. About 26 percent are from tribal communities, of which the majority of voters seem to have been attracted by the Shram Sanskriti Party. There are 40,786 voters in Kamal Rural Municipality.
8 wards of Gauradaha Municipality also fall in Jhapa 5, there are 41,475 voters. ‘I had been voting for UML in the past, but I think I should change my vote this time,’ said Khadga Bahadur Baraili of Gauradah-5, School Chaun, ‘There is a bell-like atmosphere all over the country now.’
The number of voters in the four wards of Gauriganj Rural Municipality is 15,119. Saraswati Pariyar (55), who runs a sewing shop in Gauriganj Bazaar, also said that the atmosphere is now in favor of Ghanti.
‘I have thought of looking at the new candidate this time, but I have not yet decided on him,’ she said, ‘Let’s see, there is still some time left.’ In the Damak Bazaar area, which has 65,997 voters, most UML supporters did not want to say who they would vote for. Ghanti supporters, however, openly expressed their opinions. In Gauriganj, the situation seems to be a little different, with UML flags visible everywhere in that area.
However, in some places, there are also many people who say they will vote for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). For example, 82-year-old Chandra Prasad Rajbanshi, who is also a former police officer, said that this time he will vote for the bell without thinking about anything else.
‘The government says that it will not let the bell ring, but now it has become ingrained in my mind even if it is not allowed to ring,’ he told Kantipur, ‘I was once a staunch UML, but now I will vote for the bell for the new generation.’
Some are questioning the fact that the ‘Damak Industrial Park’, which is to be built with the help of China, was not included in Balendra’s recently released Jhapa 5 pledge.
Park chairman and UML leader Govinda Thapa has accused Balendra of ‘engaging in a campaign to ban Chinese investment in Nepal.’ The UML is trying to divert the minds of voters by saying that the pledge made public by Balendra, including the industrial park, is not new and is a plan put forward by Oli himself.
However, local media personality Atmaram Rajbanshi of Gaurigunj says, ‘No matter what we talk about organizational power now, there is a craze for the new among the voters. Some may be in favor of the new, some may not understand it. That is a different matter.’
In the past, Oli used to come to Jhapa 5 as a candidate for the country’s Prime Minister, so even Congress-Maoist-RPP workers used to vote for him, he added, ‘But, the situation has changed now, the atmosphere is different after the RSP brought its own Prime Ministerial candidate to compete with him.’ He also said that leaders of that level have never challenged Oli in Jhapa in the past.
After Oli’s increased activism, Balendra has also started coming to Jhapa and increasing his meetings with voters, and has also started to be active in dialogue with them. Balendra’s wife Sabina Kafle, an assistant from his secretariat, is also active in Jhapa 5.
An aide, Surendra Bajgain, who is working in the Jhapa secretariat, says that their victory is certain, saying, "We will win by 60,000 votes, and once we reach that number, we will stop counting."
