The time for the spring tourist season to increase is just around the corner, but this time there is more concern than enthusiasm in the Himalayan tourism sector. The reason is the ongoing war in West Asia after the Israeli and American attacks on Iran on 16 Falgun and its impact. Due to which not only has the tourist traffic decreased sharply, but even the bookings that have already been made are being canceled.

Due to the ongoing war, tourists from West Asian countries are not in a position to come to Nepal, but tourists from other countries who come to Nepal via West Asian air routes and transit have also been stopped. Due to the current decrease in tourists, businesses ranging from helicopter services to hotels, trekking, and mountain climbing have been affected.

Last year, 121,687 tourists came to Nepal in Falgun-Chait (March). Tourism entrepreneurs estimate that this number may decrease by at least 20 percent this time. Of the tourists who came to Nepal in March last year, only 2,732 were from the Gulf region.

The top 10 countries receiving tourists are India, America, China, Britain, Bangladesh, Australia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Germany and Japan. The Gulf region contributes 1.8 percent to the total tourist arrivals. Last year, 20,504 tourists from Gulf countries including Qatar, Oman, Turkey, UAE, Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain came to Nepal. According to the Tourism Board, 17,299 tourists from West Asia countries including Israel, Turkey, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE came to Nepal in 2021, 10,826 in 2022, 11,343 in 2023 and 16,648 in 2024.

‘This year’s spring season is no longer in our hands, it has passed,’ Mingma Sherpa, chairman of Seven Summit Treks Pvt. Ltd., which has been managing 200 foreign nationals to climb the mountains annually, told Kantipur. ‘In the past, from the end of Falgun to mid-Chaitum, businessmen in Kathmandu would gather to prepare to take foreign tourists to the mountains at this time.’ However, this year, due to the ongoing war in the Gulf region, the arrival of tourists is in doubt.’

According to Mingma, there are signs of a decline in tourists by at least 20 percent this season. His company helped about 250 foreign tourists climb and trek the mountains last year. But this year, at least a hundred tourists are decreasing in his company’s bookings. ‘This number will increase, not decrease,’ he said. ‘Especially tourists coming from Iran and tourists of Iranian origin in Europe and the US have been affected.’ He said that the new visa process has made them even more uncomfortable. That is, the rules for Iranians scattered around the world to get a visa in Iran, which is complicated.

Mingma's company, which has the potential to earn foreign exchange equivalent to about 1 billion rupees annually, has estimated that tourists from the Gulf region will be almost zero this time. Tourists from countries like Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Jordan and Oman are certain to decrease. Its impact is not limited to trekking companies. Hoteliers, helicopter charter service providers and the local tourism-dependent community have all been affected. Mingma says that as the threat of losing the current season increases, everyone's hopes have now shifted to the upcoming winter season.

According to Sagar Pandey, President of the Trekking Agencies Association of Nepal (TAAN), the impact of the Gulf conflict is starting to be directly seen on tourism. ‘Last year, 100,000 foreign tourists came to Nepal in March,’ he says, ‘but this year that number is certain to decrease.’ Thamel, which is usually packed with tourists in March, is now unusually deserted. ‘In previous years, Thamel used to be bustling at this time,’ says Pandey, ‘but now it is not like that.’

According to him, the conflict that spread to the Gulf region through Iran has already affected the trekking business. Its further impact will be seen in the mountain climbing permits, he says. ‘From next week, there will also be a decrease in the number of people coming to the Tourism Department to obtain permits,’ he said. In Pandey’s analysis, Doha was also an important transit center for tourists coming to Nepal in the Gulf. Tourists from the US, Canada and Europe used to enter Nepal through that route. Four flights were operated from Qatar daily. About 1,200 passengers used to come to Nepal. Of which 70 percent were tourists this season.

However, the situation has changed. Qatar has resumed two daily flights last week after stopping flights for about 20 days. Flights in Qatar's skies have not yet fully resumed. However, tourists are using alternative air routes to and from Nepal. Tourists and Nepalis are flying via Delhi, China's Guangzhou, Kunming, Chengdu, and Hong Kong. Businessmen have said that air fares on these routes are 40 to 90 thousand rupees more expensive when purchased immediately.

'A one-way air ticket that costs 1 thousand dollars has now reached around 2500 dollars,' says Pandey, 'When the tourist's budget is spent on air fares, why do they come to Nepal for trekking? At such a high cost, they choose other cheaper destinations.' According to him, it is almost certain that there will be a 20 to 30 percent decline in the trekking sector this season.

Nepal's domestic airlines and helicopter companies have also been directly affected by the decline in foreign tourists. According to Pratap Jung Pandey, president of the Airline Operators Association of Nepal (Avon), helicopter charter flights are expected to decline by about 60 percent this time. 'During the spring season, helicopters used to fly for an average of 5 hours a day,' he says, 'but now this rate has reduced to about 2 hours.'

Pandey, who is also the managing director of Kailash Helicopter Pvt. Ltd., considers the dual pressure between rising costs and falling demand to be the main reason. According to him, the high cost of fuel, the complexity of alternative air routes and the high ticket prices are discouraging tourists who love the natural beauty of Nepal from coming to Nepal. Currently, hotels in Nepal are not empty, but they are not full either. The rooms are ready, the beds are made, and there are people eager to serve. But there are no guests. According to Binayak Shah, president of the Hotel Association of Nepal (HAN), Nepal has all the necessary infrastructure to welcome tourists. ‘16,000 rooms and about 25,000 beds are ready, from tourist-level to star hotels,’ he says, ‘In addition, there are an additional 80,000 beds in hotels not affiliated with the association.’

On average, tourists who come to Nepal for trekking and mountaineering spend 3 nights and 4 days in hotels. In this sense, the Nepali hotel industry has the capacity to serve about 3.5 million tourists annually. But the reality is different. The annual number of tourists in Nepal has not yet crossed 1.2 million. In 2019, 1.197 million tourists visited Nepal. This number is the highest so far.

According to Shah, the current challenge is not only the impact of the war, but also the inability to recognize opportunities. He says that the Nepal Tourism Board has missed the time to focus on alternative markets after the instability seen in the Gulf region, including Iran. ‘On the foundation day of the tourism board, the CEO declared this year as the East Asia Year,’ Shah recalls, ‘but what happened after that? What about promoting Nepal in East Asian countries? In such a difficult situation, it should have been an option, but it didn’t happen.’

According to him, the role of Nepali missions and embassies abroad is important at this time. He says that diplomatic initiatives are needed to send tourists who have planned to come to Nepal smoothly.

The hotel industry is currently in a ‘wait and see’ situation. Many bookings are on ‘hold’. They have not even been completely canceled. As per international practice, there is no charge for cancelling a booking 14 days in advance. After that, one night’s fee will be charged. But this time the situation is different. ‘This is not just a business issue, it is also a humanitarian issue,’ says Shah, ‘In view of the situation arising from the incident in the Gulf region, we have decided not to charge cancellation fees, we have put bookings on hold, some cancellations are also being made, but we are still hopeful.’

Although there are signs of a decline in the number of tourists to smaller mountains, entrepreneurs expect the world’s highest peak to remain the center of attraction. According to Rishi Bhandari, general secretary of the Mountaineering Operators Association and member of the board of directors of the Nepal Tourism Board, entrepreneurs expect that the demand for mountains higher than 8,000 meters, especially Everest, Lhotse, and Makalu, will remain relatively stable.

‘Small peaks of 5-6 thousand meters may be affected,’ says Bhandari, ‘but there is little chance of a significant decrease in the number of foreign climbers going to mountains above 8,000 meters.’ According to him, experienced climbers from different parts of the world are committed to their goal, so there is a possibility that they will find alternative routes and reach Nepal even if the tickets are expensive. Although the disruptions in the Gulf region have made the journey complicated, changing the destination is not an option for the climbers. Now everyone's attention is focused on the first week of April, because bookings for mountain climbing will be intense at that time. 'That's when we will know,' says Bhandari, 'how the climbing will be in the spring of this year.'

Mukund Niraula, Secretary of the Ministry of Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation, said that although the tension in the Gulf after the attack in Iran has affected the arrival of tourists to Nepal, there has been no immediate discussion on the matter. 'The tension in Iran seems to have affected Nepal's tourism,' he says, 'there has been no discussion with the concerned bodies on what to do and how to move forward in this difficult situation.'

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50 percent bookings canceled in Pokhara

Colorful Gurans bloom all over Ghorepani from the second week of Falgun. From Nayapul in Kaski, one reaches Ghorepani via Birethanti, Ulleri, Banathanti, and Nangethanti. Tourists stay in Ghorepani and reach Pun Hill the next morning to watch the sunrise. The Ghorepani-Pun Hill trek is a popular destination to observe the Annapurna and Dhaulagiri mountain ranges up close, watch the sunrise, and enjoy the lush slopes. The trekking route from Ghorepani to Annapurna Base Camp via Tadapani and Ghandruk is popular among foreign tourists.

But this year, by the second week of Chaitra, the number of American and European tourists on this trekking route is low. The impact of the war raging in West Asia has also affected Pokhara and the Annapurna region. The number of American and European trekking tourists is low even during the peak arrival season. The direct impact of the low number of trekking tourists has been on the hotels and restaurants here.

According to Krishna Acharya, President of Trekking Agencies Association of Nepal (TAAN) Gandaki, 50 percent of foreign tourists who were planning to come in March have canceled their bookings. American and European tourists transiting through Dubai and Qatar have canceled their bookings. Some European tourists have changed their transit routes and are coming via Istanbul, Turkey.

‘It is the second peak season now, but the impact of the Gulf War has affected tourism,’ he said, ‘especially large groups have canceled bookings.’ Tourists who planned to come in April are also on hold.’

He says that it will be difficult for Nepal’s tourism to make a breakthrough until the situation in West Asia improves. ‘The fake rescue scandal has tarnished Nepal’s image in international tourism, the Gen-G movement affected the previous season, and now the Gulf War,’ he says, ‘is starting to have a long-term impact on tourism.’ The concerned bodies should make a plan to bring tourists.'

Many tourists from America, Australia, Germany, France, Austria, Netherlands and other European countries come to trek in the Annapurna region. Now, due to the Gulf War, more Indian, Korean and Japanese tourists are seen in Pokhara than Americans and Europeans.

The 'occupancy' of the Varpipal Resort in Pokhara Lakeside, which is a favorite of European tourists, used to reach 85 percent. But as tourists canceled their bookings due to the Gulf War, the 'occupancy' of this resort has dropped to 50 percent. Jitu Gurung, the resort's operator, says that tourists coming in large groups of 12-15 people are canceling their bookings for March. He said that bookings for April have not been canceled as tourists are in a 'wait and see' mode. ‘भारतसम्म आइपुगेका युरोपेली पर्यटक पनि युद्धको अनिश्चितताले नेपाल नआई त्यताबाटै आफ्नो मुलुक फर्किएको अवस्था छ,’ उनी भन्छन्, ‘अप्रिलसम्म यस्तै अवस्था रहने हो भने पोखराको पर्यटन व्यवसाय नाजुक अवस्थाबाट गुज्रिनुपर्छ ।’