Although the Congress won at least one seat in every province, the UML did not win a single seat in Madhesh, Bagmati, and Gandaki, and the NCP did not win a single seat in Koshi, Gandaki, and Sudurpaschim.
We use Google Cloud Translation Services. Google requires we provide the following disclaimer relating to use of this service:
This service may contain translations powered by Google. Google disclaims all warranties related to the translations, expressed or implied, including any warranties of accuracy, reliability, and any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and noninfringement.
The old parties Congress, UML and NCP have lost their traditionally dominant constituencies in this year's House of Representatives elections. Although Congress won at least one seat in every province, UML and NCP did not win a single seat in three provinces each.
Madhesh Province, with more than 5 million voters and 32 constituencies, was once considered the main base area of Congress. After the 2062/063 people's movement, the public vote in Madhesh was divided among the then Maoist and Madhesh-centric parties. This time, when the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) won 30 seats from Madhesh, the Madhesh-centric parties became zero. Congress and NCP won one constituency each. UML did not win a single seat in Madhesh Province.
In the 2079 elections, UML became the first party in Madhesh by winning 9 seats, while Congress was in second place by winning 7 seats. This time, only Firdos Alam (Rautahat-2) won from Congress. Congress President Gagan Thapa, who won three consecutive elections from Kathmandu-4, had filed his candidacy in Sarlahi-4 this time. He was defeated by Rastriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)'s Amresh Kumar Singh. After Matrika Yadav won from Dhanusha-1, the NCP was saved from being reduced to zero in Madhesh.
The old parties have also lost a lot of votes in proportional representation. In the 2079 elections, although UML came first in Madhesh directly, the Congress was first in proportional representation, followed by UML. Now the gap between the proportional representation of the RSS and other parties is very large.
As the counting nears the end, the RSS has received 1,260,959 votes in Madhesh Province, while the second-placed Congress has 2,81,696 proportional representation votes. UML has 1,83,544 votes, Madhesh-centric party JSP Nepal has 1,29,886 votes, NCP has 1,4,286 votes, and Janmat has 50,209 votes.
The Madhesh-centric parties that emerged after the 2062/063 people's movement by raising the issue of Madhesh did not directly win a single seat from any province. Since they could not even cross the 'threshold' of three percent in the proportional representation, their presence in the House of Representatives this time will be zero. JSP Nepal has the highest number of Madhesh-centric parties in the proportional representation. When the proportional vote counting was nearing its end, JSP Nepal has received only 174,000 votes from across the country. Only the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), Congress, UML, CPN (Maoist), Shram Sanskriti (Labour and Culture Party) and RPP have crossed the 'threshold' of three percent.
According to political analyst Tulanarayan Sah, the image he created when he was the mayor of Kathmandu, the impact of the Gen-G rebellion and the issue of a person of Madheshi origin becoming the prime minister have created a wave in favor of Balendra Shah throughout Madhesh this time. ‘How much he did well as the mayor of Kathmandu, how much he did not do, is different, but he does not corrupt the common people, he is not afraid. It is said that he has given scholarships to students in remote places. The legacy of the Gen-G rebellion also worked in that,’ he says, ‘The Madhesi people also said that a person from their own community is becoming the Prime Minister. In Madhesh, Balendra Shah’s wave has come more than that of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. This has sidelined other parties.’
According to Congress leader Bimalendra Nidhi, the message that for the first time a person of Madhesh origin is becoming the Prime Minister has had a great impact. He himself was defeated by Manish Jha of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh from Dhunsha-3.
‘The Congress and the UML did not advance the Madheshis. The message that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh tried to make a Madheshi the Prime Minister has attracted the attention of the Madhesh region and the entire country,’ says Nidhi, ‘The votes of the old people have come towards us. However, the youth who were abroad and were studying in college called their families to vote. The youth who were here did not vote for other parties.’
Professor Vijayakant Karna says that when the common people were getting frustrated due to the long-standing incompetence in governance, the Congress, UML, NCP and Madhesh-centric parties became weaker in their base after Balendra Shah entered. ‘Corruption, incompetence, misuse of state funds, excessive partisanship in state bodies and institutions and the musical chairs of power had increased the frustration among the common people. Not only the Congress, UML and the then Maoists, but the Madhesh-centric parties that emerged after the Madhesh movement also became the pawns of power,’ he says. ‘The Madhesh-centric parties had the mandate to fight for the rights of the Madhesh from outside, but they committed evil deeds including party division for power.’
Karna says that the Madhesh citizens have rewarded everyone in the past when they fought for their rights. ‘They did the same to BP Koirala. They did it to the Congress many times, but the Congress could not maintain trust. In 2064 BS, they supported the Maoists, and after the Madhesh movement, they supported the Madhesh-centric parties. But no one could understand its message.’
He says that in this election, there was a wave of ‘the son of Madhesh is becoming the Prime Minister’ in every household in Madhesh. ‘Balen was given a grand welcome not only in Madhesh, but also wherever he went. It seems that people voted for him because he would reduce the gap between Madhesh, the hills and the mountains,’ he says.
Professor Karna’s analysis is that the Madhesh-centric parties have reduced to zero in Madhesh itself by not trying to take ownership of the Gen-G rebellion. ‘The Gen-G rebellion happened only in Kathmandu, the Madhesh-centric parties acted as if nothing had happened to us, which the Madhesh people did not like,’ he added.
UML is without representatives not only in Madhesh Province, but also in Bagmati and Gandaki Provinces this time. There are 33 constituencies in Bagmati and 18 in Gandaki. In the 2079 election, UML won 14 seats from Bagmati and 8 from Gandaki. In Lumbini, which has 26 constituencies, and Karnali, which has 12 constituencies, UML has won one constituency each. From Lumbini, Mohammad Istiyak Rai from Banke-2 under the province won and UML's Ganesh Singh Thakunna from Darchula under the Karnali province won. Four people from UML have been elected in Koshi and three from Sudurpaschim. In Koshi, Kshitij Thebe (Taplejung-1), Suhang Nembang (Ilam-2), Rajendra Kumar Rai (Dhankuta-1) and Arjun Kumar Karki (Sankhuwasabha-1) have won the election. Laxmi Prasad Pokharel (Dailekh-2), Ain Bahadur Mahar (Bajhang-1) and Yagya Bahadur Bogati (Achham-2) have won from Sudurpaschim.
Five candidates have been elected from the Congress in Karnali, four in Koshi, three in Sudurpaschim, two each in Lumbini and Gandaki, and one each in Madhesh and Bagmati. In the 2079 election, the Congress had won 9 seats in Koshi, 7 in Madhesh, 13 in Bagmati, 10 in Gandaki (losing one in the by-election), 6 in Lumbini, 4 in Karnali, and 8 in Sudurpaschim. Former Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba had been winning elections from Dadeldhura in Sudurpaschim since 2048. This time, after Deuba did not get a ticket, former Nepali Sangh President Nain Singh Mahar was the candidate from Dadeldhura from the Congress, but he was defeated. Deuba did not reach Sudurpaschim to seek votes, nor did he cast his vote.
In the 2079 election, the then Maoists directly won 18 seats and the Unified Socialists 10 seats. The Nepali Communist Party, formed after the merger of the two, won only eight seats in this election. This time, Matrika Prasad Yadav won in Dhanusha-1, Yubaraj Dulal in Sindhupalchowk-1, Barshaman Pun in Rolpa, Pushpa Kamal Dahal in Rukum East, Gopal Sharma in Rukum West, Ramesh Kumar Malla in Salyan, Dhan Bahadur Budha in Dolpa and Mahendra Bahadur Shahi in Kalikot from the NCP.
The NCP did not win a single seat from Koshi, Gandaki and Sudurpaschim Provinces. In 2079, the then Maoist won in Morang-4 (Amanlal Modi), Bhojpur (Sudan Kirati) and Khotang (Ram Kumar Rai). The then Unified Socialists had zero seats in Koshi.
In 2079, five members of the then Maoist and one member of the Unified Socialists won the election from Bagmati. Similarly, two members of the then Maoist won from Gandaki. Four members of the then Maoist and two members of the Unified Socialists won from Karnali. In Lumbini, the then Maoists had four seats and the Unified Socialists had one. Similarly, in the Far West, one person from the then Unified Socialists won the election.
The proportional votes of the Congress, UML and NCP have also decreased significantly. In 2079, the UML had received 28 lakh 45 thousand 641 votes (about 27 percent). But this time, out of a total of 1 crore 6 lakh 22 thousand 679 votes, the UML has received 14 lakh 89 thousand 4 hundred 35 votes (13 percent). The Congress has received about 16 percent, or 17 lakh 26 thousand 863 votes. In the previous election, its vote was 2715,225 (about 26 percent). This time, the NCP has secured about 7 percent, or 789,435 votes. In 2079, the then Maoists got 1,175,684 votes (about 11 percent) and the Unified Socialists got 298,391 votes (2.83 percent). This time, the RSVP has won 5.1 million proportional votes.
