The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology predicts below-average rainfall from this year's Poush 17 to the upcoming Falgun 16.
What you should know
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has made public its estimate that rainfall will be below average for the next few months. According to the public estimate, there is expected to be below average rainfall from this year's Poush 17 to next Falgun 16, the department has stated.
According to the department's information officer Dinkar Kayastha, there was less than average rainfall last December. He said that less rainfall is expected in the coming days as well.
Stating that most parts of the country will receive less than average rainfall during the two-month period from December 17 to February 16, Kayastha said that there is a possibility of less than average, average and above average rainfall in the Far West, northern parts of Karnali Province and north-western parts of Gandaki Province.
According to Kayastha, there is a 55 to 65 percent chance of less than average rainfall in the central parts of Sudurpaschim Province, southern parts of Karnali, Lumbini and Gandaki Provinces, most parts of Bagmati Province, central parts of Madhes Province and western parts of Koshi Province.
He informed that there is a 45 to 55 percent chance of below-average rainfall in the southwestern part of Sudurpaschim, central part of Karnali, northern part of Lumbini, central part of Gandaki, central part of Bagmati, eastern and western part of Madhes and central and southern part of Koshi Province.
The climate assessment made public by the department states that there is a 35 to 45 percent chance of below-average rainfall in the rest of the country. According to the preliminary data received so far, below-average rainfall was measured across the country in December.
Basis of assessment
The department stated that this assessment was prepared based on the assessment of climate models of the World Meteorological Organization's global and regional climate information production centers.
The department's information officer Kayastha said that it has also been prepared keeping in mind the current state of El Niño developing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean developing in the Indian Ocean, which affect Nepal's winter climate.
The global patterns are currently in a La Niña state in the Pacific Ocean and are expected to move towards neutral by the end of the winter season. Similarly, the global patterns are expected to remain neutral throughout the winter season.
Seasonal climate depends on various oceanic and atmospheric systems, land use, and it is difficult to predict climate patterns with 100% reliability when such systems change seasonally, said Kayastha, the department's information officer.
