AI: Opportunity and Fear

पुस २४, २०८१

कैलाश कार्की

AI: Opportunity and Fear

Currently, AI-based technologies such as Open AI's Chat GPT, Google's Gemini, and Microsoft's Copilot are in discussion. Although the origin of AI dates back to the 1950s, recent advances in the computing power of hardware and the availability of data have caught everyone's attention.

There is not only a debate about the power and limits of AI, but also many debates about its development. In December 2023, the New York Times reported that Open AI, the creator of Chat GPT, and sued Microsoft in federal court for copyright infringement, claiming that millions of New York Times articles were used without permission to train Chat GPT.

Similarly, a few days before the start of the Lok Sabha elections in the neighboring country of India, a video of famous Bollywood hero Aamir Khan supporting a particular party went viral on the Internet. In particular, the video was a deepfake video prepared through the use of AI.

Although there is no universal definition of what AI is and what kind of system AI is, the definition of AI adopted by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), UNESCO, and the European Commission includes human-like behavior, ability to form opinions, The ability to suggest suitable options and problem solving are considered as the standards of AI.

Mainly, AI can be classified into two categories: predictive and generative AI. Predictive AI models have the ability to provide information and inform about possible future outcomes and events by analyzing data deeply. Predictive AI models are being used in the estimation of share price fluctuations, weather forecasting, analysis of customer buying behavior, etc.

generative AI has the ability to create text, audio, video, images and even software code according to the user's request . After the launch of Chat GPT by OpenAI, technology companies have started to focus on generative AI in recent times.

It took 75 years for fixed telephones to reach 100 million users worldwide. In contrast, mobile phones achieved this milestone in just 16 years . The Internet reached this number in seven years, and in the case of Open AI's Chat GPT, it took only two months to reach 100 million users.

This fact highlights the transformative potential of AI. Earlier inventions (steam power, diesel power, electricity, etc.) only replaced our physical abilities, but AI has the ability to replace/imitate not only physical abilities but also cognitive abilities of humans. Therefore, AI is now not only limited as tools, but in the direction of being established as agents. is quoted.

Fear of job loss
There is no doubt that the fear of job loss due to technology has been a recurring theme in public debate since the industrial revolution . In 1930, John Maynard Keynes called the problem of unemployment caused by the development of technology (technological underemployment) as a new disease and warned that technology could deprive people of their livelihood. AI has also not been able to stay away from this debate .

Studies are ongoing about the jobs that could be lost and created through the use of AI . A report by financial company Goldman Sachs predicts that AI could replace 300 million full-time jobs. The report predicts that one-third of jobs in the US and Europe will be completely replaced by AI and the remaining two-thirds will use some form of AI automation. On the other hand, it is estimated that the use of AI will increase the production of goods and services globally by seven percent.

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania and OpenAI have concluded that educated white-collar workers who earn up to $80,000 a year will be most affected by the use of AI. Similarly, a study by McKenzie Global Institute showed that by 2030, at least 14 percent of employees worldwide will have to change their careers due to digitalization, robotics and AI developments.

According to the 'Labor Force Perception About AI' report published by India's Indian Institute of Management Ahmadabad last August, 60 percent of the white-collar employees who participated in the survey expressed the fear of losing their jobs because AI will automate the work they are doing. Similarly, 53 percent have expressed their belief that AI will create new types of jobs.  

According to the World Economic Forum, 85 million jobs will be replaced and 97 million new jobs will be created by 2025 due to automation. In this way, although the net effect of automation on employment is positive, there is a need for re-skilling and up-skilling for new responsibilities. Studies have shown that people are not free to be limited to one job for the rest of their lives and may be forced to change their careers frequently with the development of technology.    

The race to regulate
AI-enabled systems are becoming more sophisticated and expanding in scope. And studies are being done about the possible risk of biased decisions, violation of personal privacy, and the existing gap of inequality that can be further increased by the use of such systems . With the aim of maintaining fairness, transparency and accountability in the development and responsible use of such cutting-edge systems, various countries are working on strategies and regulations for AI development and use.

Last March, the United Nations General Assembly passed a historic resolution to promote safe and reliable AI systems . The General Assembly recognized that the use of AI systems would help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and emphasized the respect, protection and promotion of human rights in its development, implementation and use.

The responsible use of AI helps to make the world more prosperous, productive and safer by helping to solve existing challenges. But the irresponsible use of such systems can promote discrimination, prejudice, misinformation and threaten national security. To minimize such risks, in October 2023, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, issued an executive order for the safe and reliable development and use of AI. This order will  From protecting Americans' privacy, equality, and protecting civil rights, the emphasis is on the proper and effective use of AI.

Last May, the European Council approved the AI ​​Act. This Act classifies AI-based systems into four levels based on potential risks: low risk, limited risk, high risk and extreme risk (unacceptable). In the

Act, classification of persons based on sensitive characteristics such as caste, political opinion, religious belief,  Groups of people are divided on the basis of age, disability (different ability) or exploitation/abuse of weaknesses related to socioeconomic status, personal characteristics or social behavior . Considering the risk of violating the fundamental rights of individuals and groups, the systems that can act in an adverse manner have placed such systems under extreme risk, i.e. unacceptable systems, and have banned them.

Similarly, there is a provision to ensure that AI products/systems classified under high risk comply with European laws through conformity assessment before commercial use and post market monitoring after commercial use.

Niti Aayog, which is the main think tank of the Government of India, announced the National AI Strategy in 2018 with the slogan 'AI for All' and identified five primary sectors, namely healthcare, agriculture, education, smart city and smart transportation, and increased the use of AI in these sectors. It has mentioned the subject where socio-economic benefits can be obtained.

Similarly, last March, India's Union Cabinet approved a national-level AI mission with a budget of around 10,000 crores for AI promotion, including investments in components such as computing infrastructure, innovation centers, integrated data platforms, AI-related skills, and startup financing to create a strong and comprehensive AI. The goal of creating an ecosystem has been taken.

The United Arab Emirates, which has set up a separate ministry for AI promotion, aims to become a leading country for AI by 2031 by contributing an additional 335 billion dirhams to its economy through the development and use of AI.


Karki is the Assistant Director of Nepal Telecommunication Authority .

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