The WMO has said that El Niño will strengthen in the coming months, significantly increasing the risk of drought, heavy rains and heat waves.
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The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño will intensify rapidly in the coming months, significantly increasing the risk of droughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world. The organization has urged countries to prepare immediately to mitigate the potential impacts.
According to the WMO's monthly global climate update, the El Niño condition has already begun and is likely to reach 'strong' levels from July to September. El Niño is a natural climate system that occurs when the surface temperature of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean increases abnormally, causing widespread changes in wind flow, air pressure and rainfall patterns around the world. The event usually occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts for about 9 to 12 months. In contrast, the situation is 'La Niña', which is a neutral state between the two.
The WMO classifies El Niño into four levels: weak, moderate, strong and very strong. This time, it is expected to reach the third or ‘strong’ category between July and September. Models prepared by various international climate centers show that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will continue to increase. Sea surface temperatures in key monitoring areas are expected to be more than 2 degrees Celsius above average, indicating high confidence in the forecast, the WMO said.
According to the organization, El Niño will strengthen in the northern hemisphere autumn and its effects will spread to many parts of the world. The equatorial Atlantic Ocean is also expected to be warmer than normal. The last El Niño contributed significantly to making 2023 the second warmest year on record and 2024 the warmest year on record, with temperatures 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that with the intensification of El Niño, the risk of drought, excessive rainfall, land and sea heat waves will increase in many areas. She said that early warning systems and weather forecasts are being made more effective in areas directly related to climate, including agriculture and health, and that timely information will play a key role in reducing the loss of life and property.
The new update shows that temperatures are likely to be above average in most populated areas except the polar regions from 60 degrees south to 60 degrees north. From July to September, some areas are expected to experience above-average rainfall, while many parts of the Indian subcontinent and Australia are likely to experience below-average rainfall.
Although the WMO clarified that there is no solid evidence that El Niño is increasing in frequency or intensity due to climate change, it has stated that the impact of heat waves, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events could become more severe due to warmer oceans and the atmosphere.
Also, the WMO said that warm ocean waters associated with El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere summer could increase storm activity in the central and eastern Pacific but weaken the development of such systems in the Atlantic Ocean.
