US Secretary of State Marco Rubio returned to Washington on Tuesday after a four-day visit to India. During the visit, Rubio met with top officials including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Sunday. He also participated in the foreign ministerial meeting of the US, Australia, India and Japan Strategic Partnership (Quad) on Tuesday. 

Rubio also conveyed Trump's message to the participants over the phone at an event organized on Sunday at the US Embassy in Delhi on the occasion of the 250th anniversary of the American War of Independence. 'I love India. We have never been this close to India before and India can trust me 100 percent,' Trump said. The visit was mainly focused on improving India's relations with the US, which deteriorated last year. Some strategic agreements were also signed along with this. For example, on Tuesday, Rubio and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar signed an agreement to ensure the supply of rare earth minerals. The agreement states that the two countries will cooperate to provide rare earth minerals needed for cutting-edge technology and energy. Earlier in February, India signed the US-led international economic and security alliance 'PAX Silica'. 

The plan, which was launched in December 2025, has put forward a policy of collaborating with various countries to build a reliable supply chain for cutting-edge technologies. This includes everything from mining and processing of rare earth minerals to building cutting-edge computing and AI infrastructure. While signing the bilateral agreement, Rubio recalled that India was one of the initial signatories of the 'PAX Silica' collaboration. Countries including South Korea, Japan, the UK, Australia, Singapore, Israel, and the Philippines have already signed agreements on it. 

'Ensuring the supply chain of rare earth minerals is essential for the mutual interest of the two countries and our economies. That is why we are strategic partners,' Rubio said. 'Accepting a monopoly of any one source in this industry is against the national and strategic interests of both our countries.'

The US has adopted a policy of breaking the Chinese monopoly on rare earth minerals through strategic cooperation with various countries. Currently, 70 percent of the rare earth minerals imported into the US market come from China. Similarly, 80 to 90 percent of rare earth minerals in India come from China. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, more than 60 percent of the world's total consumption of rare earth minerals is mined in China. Similarly, China has more than 90 percent of the processed (usable) minerals. A group of 17 chemical elements are called rare earth minerals. 

It is used in the manufacture of materials such as smartphones, electrical appliances, vehicle parts, ships and fighter jets. These minerals are needed to make batteries, motherboards, screens, speakers, motors and other parts. 

Both the US and India, which want to gain a foothold in modern technology, are aware of the need to reduce China's monopoly on rare earth minerals. Despite this, the relationship between the world's two largest democracies has not been able to build trust. 

Both the United States and India, which want to gain a grip on modern technology, are aware of the need to reduce China's monopoly on rare earth minerals. Despite this, the relationship between the world's two largest democracies has not been able to build trust.  US President Donald Trump had a very good relationship with Modi during his first term (2017–2021). In September 2019, Trump and Modi were seen together at a special event attended by a large Indian community in Houston, Texas. Where Modi raised the slogan 'Ab ki baar Trump Sarkar'. This event, held exactly a year before the presidential election, was interpreted by many as Modi's support for Trump. However, Trump was defeated in that election. Four years later, Trump won the election and was sworn in for a second term as President in 2025. Shortly after, he invited Modi to visit the United States. During Modi's visit, which lasted from February 12 to 15, 2025, an agreement was reached between the two countries to cooperate in security, energy, trade, and technology. 

But the steps of the Trump administration have gradually shaken India. The increase in customs duties, the crackdown on immigration and Trump's volatile relations with China and Pakistan have destabilized US relations with India.

Since Trump came to power, changes in US visa policies have greatly affected India's skilled workers and students. India has been formulating its foreign policy keeping in mind its strategic autonomy. “The Trump administration is moving forward with the America First policy,” Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said in a meeting with Rubio on Sunday, “We have an India First policy.”

Trump has been claiming that he mediated to end the four-day war between India and Pakistan in May last year. However, India has been denying this from the beginning. On the other hand, Pakistan, expressing gratitude to Trump for his mediation, recommended him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Since then, relations between Pakistan and the US have seen a dramatic change. And, relations between the two countries have started to cool. 

In August last year, the US decided to increase customs duties on Indian goods by 50 percent. This made it difficult for Indian products to compete in the US market. Trump claimed that this decision was made because of the purchase of arms and oil from Russia. Under pressure, India signed a new agreement with the US in early February. In which India would stop buying oil from Russia at a discount and in return, the US would reduce the tax imposed on India to 18 percent. Similarly, India committed to buying energy, technology and agricultural products worth $500 billion from the US over the next five years. However, shortly after this agreement, the US attacked Iran.

India, which had already agreed not to buy oil from Russia, was in great difficulty when the Strait of Hormuz was closed due to the war. However, the US has temporarily granted India a waiver to buy oil from Russia, citing the war as the reason. Although there was some relief in oil supplies, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, India is facing an acute shortage of LNG and LPG gas and chemical fertilizers during the rice planting season. This crisis created by the US attack is not only faced by India but also by the world.

In the past, India had stopped buying cheap crude oil from Iran under pressure from the US. The US has now proposed to buy oil from Venezuela. In practice, it is not beneficial for India to buy fuel from such a long distance. Interestingly, the US, which has increased customs duties on India using the pretext of buying Russian oil, has not been able to impose restrictions on China and European countries buying oil from Russia and Iran. 

China-Pakistan relations
For the past 25 years, the US government has been trying to win India over as a 'counterweight' to balance China. But recently, Trump has also moved towards stabilizing relations with Beijing.

In line with the same strategy, Trump agreed with Chinese President Xi during his visit to Beijing on May 14 to build a 'constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability'. Xi had also said that Trump's 'Make America Great Again' and the dream of Chinese rejuvenation can go hand in hand. The two countries have also agreed to form a trade board to resolve trade disputes. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, a long-time ally of India, arrived in Beijing shortly after Trump. The statement issued after the meeting discussed a ‘multipolar world’. Despite this, China is trying to draw Moscow, which has become economically weak, into its strategic peace process with the US. All these developments have led geopolitical experts to analyze that India’s geopolitical influence is weakening. 

On the one hand, the US has maintained strategic cooperation between India, Japan and Australia through the Quad. On the other hand, it has been giving priority to the SQUAD (Australia, Japan, Philippines, US) alliance in the Indo-Pacific region over the Quad. Because all members of the SQUAD are partners in the US security alliance. The most disturbing or uncomfortable development for India is the dramatic improvement in US-Pakistan relations. Pakistan, which recommended Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to mediate the Indo-Pakistani war, has now become America's exclusive ally. 

India has tried to get closer to the US-Israeli alliance by keeping quiet about the attack on Iran and only condemning Iran's counter-attack, but it has not succeeded. Instead, America has chosen Pakistan for mediation. Trump has publicly praised the Pakistani leadership on several occasions. He has even called Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir his 'dear field marshal'.