Crude oil prices have risen again as the US-Iran talks and a permanent ceasefire remain uncertain. The price of international benchmark Brent crude reached $126 a barrel on Thursday. That is the highest price since 2022. According to American media outlet CNN on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said in a meeting with his top aides that the blockade on Iranian ports could be extended for months. CNN made the disclosure, citing informed sources.

Vandana Hari, founder of energy market analysis firm Vanda Insights, said that oil prices will rise until the Strait of Hormuz opens. “Nobody knows when or how Hormuz will open at this point. It seems that oil prices will rise until Hormuz is reopened,” she said.

There is currently a double blockade on Hormuz. The blockade has been ongoing in the region since the US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28. The US military announced a blockade here after Trump's order on April 13. The Americans are turning back ships that come to Iranian ports to take oil.

The ships that are forcing them have even been taken under control. Such a blockade is expected to halt Iran's oil trade and worsen its economic problems. President Trump claims that such a situation will force Iran to give up its ambitions to build nuclear weapons.

Iran has said that it will soon facilitate fuel supply and distribution. ‘The enemies will not gain anything by blocking Iran,’ said Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknezhad, ‘People working in the oil industry are working hard to prevent any disruption to services.’

The Iranian government has already put forward various standards to reduce the consumption of fuel and daily necessities. Government offices have been asked to reduce electricity use by 70 percent after 1 pm, and arrangements have been made, including concessions in tariffs for those who consume less electricity.’

‘The problems seen in import-export have further damaged Iran’s already troubled economy.’ About 50 percent of Iranians are on the verge of losing their jobs and another 5 percent are being pushed into poverty, said Hadi Kahalzadeh of the Quincy Institute, a US foreign policy think tank.

Iran's economy was already in shambles before the war began due to US sanctions. Iran's annual per capita income, which was $8,000 in 2012, fell to $5,000 in 2024.

Much of Iran's public infrastructure has been destroyed due to the war. At least 3,372 Iranians have been killed since the war began. Similarly, at least 2,509 people have been killed in Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Hezbollah, supporting Iran, declared war on Israel on March 1.

A ceasefire was signed between Iran and the US on April 8 and Israel and Lebanon on April 16. However, no agreement has been reached to permanently end the war. Not yet.

At least 23 people have been killed in the war in Israel. More than 12 people have died in the Gulf states. At least 13 American soldiers and six soldiers deployed to the United Nations peacekeeping mission have died.

The US has already spent a huge amount of money on the Iran war. On Wednesday, Jules W. Hurst, a senior official at the US Department of War, said that an estimated $25 billion had been spent in the two months of the Iran war.

“To date, we have spent $25 billion on Operation Epic Fury,” Hurst told a meeting of the House Security Committee. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kenney were also present at the hearing.

This war has affected not only the US-Iran relationship but also the rest of the world. Before the war, about 20 percent of the world's crude oil and natural gas was produced in the West Asian countries used to exit through Hormuz.

After the disruption in this waterway, the prices of not only fuel but also other essential commodities have increased. Asian countries are the main consumers of crude oil and gas in West Asia. The disruption in the supply chain has made daily life difficult in Asian countries including Japan, South Korea, India, and Pakistan.

Major price increases in the oil market

– In 1973, Arab countries attacked Israel. At that time, Western countries supported Israel. In response, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) decided not to sell oil to countries supporting Israel. After this, the shortage of crude oil in Western countries affected the industry. At that time, crude oil was being sold for 3 US dollars per barrel and reached around 12 dollars per barrel.

– In 1979, the Islamic Revolution in Iran Oil production was affected during the revolution. After the revolution, 66 employees of the US embassy in Tehran were captured by protesters. In response, the US imposed sanctions. This led to a shortage of crude oil in the world market. The price rose to 35-40 US dollars per barrel.

– In 1986, oil production was at its peak. The price of Brent crude suddenly fell to less than 10 dollars per barrel.

– During the Gulf War of 1990-91, Iraqi forces set fire to more than 700 oil fields in Kuwait. This led to a shortage of oil in the world market. In this war, 42 countries led by the US fought against Iraq on Kuwait's side. The oil production of both Iraq and Kuwait decreased, creating a shortage in the world market. The price of oil, which was trading around 17 dollars per barrel, reached around 40 dollars was . 

–In 2003, countries including the US and Britain invaded Iraq . Much of Iraq's infrastructure was damaged . This gradually increased the price of oil . In July 2008, the price of oil reached a historic high of $147 per barrel . 

–In 2019, crude oil was trading at $60-70 per barrel . In April 2020, due to the global lockdown following the Corona pandemic, demand fell sharply . In April 2020, the minimum price of crude oil was less than $20 per barrel . Overall, the average in 2020 was $41.96 per barrel .

–With the availability and use of vaccines, the global economy gradually started to recover in 2021 . This year, oil was traded at an average of $70.86 per barrel .