The ruling coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has suffered a setback after the bill on women's reservation and the Lok Sabha seat determination and constituency delimitation, which has been at the center of political controversy in India recently, was not passed by Parliament. 

In India, there is a constitutional provision that reservation, Lok Sabha seat determination and constituency delimitation must be amended by amending the constitution. Which must be approved by two-thirds of the Parliament. According to the same provision, the bill was tabled in Parliament last Friday. However, the bill could not be passed as it did not reach the two-thirds majority in favor. Out of a total of 543 members of the Parliament, 528 members participated in the vote. 298 votes were cast in favor and 230 against. A rare unity among the opposition parties in India was seen in Parliament after the bill was tabled. This is the first time that a bill introduced by the government has failed since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014. Political analysts say that the failure of the bill also exposed the dissatisfaction with the BJP's Hindutva politics.

The bill mentioned provisions related to reservation of 33 percent seats for women in the Lok Sabha and the Legislative Assembly, updating the number of seats in the Lok Sabha based on population, and redelimitation of constituencies. The bill also proposed to increase the total number of seats in the Lok Sabha to 850 from 543 seats, which will be reserved for women. Out of this, 815 seats were reserved for states and a maximum of 35 seats were reserved for union territories. 

After the strategy to get the bill passed failed, the ruling coalition has become defensive. The opposition has accused the BJP, the main party in the ruling coalition, of failing to pass the bill respecting women. The opposition, on the other hand, has accused the previously passed bill on women's reservation of being controversial by linking it with the delimitation and delimitation of constituencies. The bill granting 33 percent reservation to women in Parliament was passed unanimously in 2023. The bill mentioned that reservation would be made by determining constituencies based on the upcoming census. However, the bill that failed in Parliament proposed to determine the number of seats based on the 2011 census. The opposition has been demanding that the reservation be determined only on the basis of the new census. India is due to conduct a new census in 2027. 

The opposition has accused the ruling coalition of trying to influence the elections in Bengal and Tamil Nadu by bringing back the already passed bill and winning over women voters. Assembly elections are being held in West Bengal (first phase) and Tamil Nadu on Thursday. The second phase of elections in West Bengal is scheduled for April 29. “We agree to reserve 33 percent of the votes for women in Parliament. However, this step should be taken by maintaining the current number, not increasing the constituencies. We do not agree to change the number of constituencies until the population trend stabilizes,” said John Brittas, an MP from the opposition Communist Party of India (Marxist). “The government brought this bill with ulterior motives for political gain when elections were being held in various states of the country.”

States in particular in South India opposed the proposal to increase the constituencies based on population. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin had pointed out the risk of India's power structure permanently shifting to North India if the bill is passed. 

The states of South India, which are comparatively ahead in terms of resources, socio-educational development and economic indicators, have a smaller population than North India. On 19 April 2023, the United Nations announced that India had overtaken China to become the world's most populous state. At that time, the UN had stated that India's population had reached 1.428 billion. Of this, the largest population growth is in the six states of North and West India, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat. On the other hand, the population growth rate of the southern states during this period has been very slow. 

According to a data analysis published by The Hindu based on the 2011 census, if the bill was passed, the presence of Hindi-majority states in Parliament would have increased from 38.1 percent to 43.1 percent. On the other hand, the presence of the southern states would have been limited from 24.3 percent to 20.7 percent. 

India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, currently elects 80 Lok Sabha members. The Hindi-speaking majority state would have increased its seats by 58 to 138 

(parliamentary presence from 14.73 percent to 16.24 percent), while Bihar would have increased its seats by 32 to 72 from 40 (from 7.37 percent to 8.47 percent). To the south, Kerala would have gotten only 23 seats from its current 20. 

The BJP, which is based on the ideological foundations of Hindi language, Hinduism and Hindustani nationalism, was seen as the biggest beneficiary. "We will strongly oppose this. Black flags will be displayed all over Tamil Nadu as a protest. This is not a matter of parties. This is a matter of protecting the rights of the people," he had said on April 14, urging the withdrawal of the bill. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Anumula Revanth Reddy had also strongly opposed it. 

Despite widespread opposition, the government had brought forward the bill without proper consultation with the opposition. The failure of the bill shattered the BJP's illusion that the opposition has no meaning in India, according to the analysis of the Indian media outlet The Wire. 'In 2014 and 2019, the BJP won a clear majority. This time, even though it was reduced to 240 seats, the illusion did not disappear. Instead of holding an all-party meeting, the government's assessment that it could meet opposition leaders separately and get them to agree on its views proved wrong,' The Wire comments, 'Home Minister Amit Shah's great charisma was exaggerated. On August 5, 2019, without extensive discussion and prior notice, in the name of national security, he presented the decision to divide the state of Jammu and Kashmir into two separate union territories in Parliament at once, and it was passed by a majority. However, as the required majority was not reached, his ability did not work.' Analysts say that the failure of the

bill also exposed the BJP's dissatisfaction with the politics of Hindutva. 'The BJP tried to keep the politics of religion at the center, but ignoring language and region has created a strong political challenge. Language and region have once again become the main topics of debate in India,’ The Wire’s analysis states, ‘The linguistic division and riots of the 1950s were big before the state was recognized on the basis of language. Many have forgotten this. However, if language is humiliated or persecuted, it can come to the surface again.’ 

How is constituency determination done in India?

Lok Sabha and assembly seats are distributed on the basis of population. Articles 82 and 170 of the Constitution of India clearly mention the delimitation of constituencies. Article 82 contains a provision regarding the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies. After every national census, Parliament must pass a new Delimitation Act to change the number and boundaries of Lok Sabha constituencies. Article 170 contains a provision regarding the delimitation of state assembly constituencies. It mentions the issue of changing the number of assembly members and changing the boundaries of assembly constituencies after every national census, based on the population of the state. Such a system was implemented in India in 1952, 1963, 1973 and 2002.