Tensions between the US and Iran are escalating. The latest direct talks in Islamabad, brokered by Pakistan, failed, and the US military announced that it would impose a blockade on Iranian ports from Monday, raising concerns about the global economy and energy supply.

US President Donald Trump accused Iran of refusing to give up its nuclear program after high-level talks failed. After the US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance walked out of the talks, Trump signaled that he would take tough measures regarding the operation of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

US Central Command said that a blockade will be imposed on all Iranian ports in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman from 1400 GMT on Monday. However, it has been made clear that the movement of ships heading to non-Iranian ports will not be hindered. Earlier, President Trump had strongly warned that the Strait of Hormuz would be taken under complete control. Trump initially responded by saying, “The United States Navy will begin the process of blocking all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” and warned that any attack would be met with a strong response. Iran, however, has challenged Trump’s move and warned of retaliation. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have been claiming that they have complete control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that his country will not bow to pressure from anyone, while Navy Chief Shahram Irani also commented on the US statement as “ridiculous.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has blamed the failure of the talks on the US policy of maximum pressure and last-minute changes of position. He said that although a peace agreement was very close through the Islamabad talks, its possibility was lost after the US announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he would support US President Trump’s decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran. "Iran has violated its commitments to the peace talks in Pakistan, which is why President Trump has announced a naval blockade," Netanyahu said. "Israel, an ally of the United States, will support and cooperate with the Trump administration's latest announcement." He stated that he would support Trump's announcement and would continue to coordinate with the United States.

The announcement of the blockade, along with the accusations and counter-accusations after the failed talks, has further complicated the Gulf War that has been ongoing since February 28. Thousands of lives have been lost in this conflict, which began after Israel and the United States attacked Iran, and the global economy has also been greatly affected. Although Pakistan has continued its mediation efforts and called on both sides to maintain a ceasefire, the naval blockade is analyzed to weaken that effort. Its direct impact is already being seen in the oil market. 

Oil prices, which fell last week, rose again on Monday, with both WTI and Brent prices reaching around $100 per barrel. Since the Gulf region supplies about 20 percent of the world's oil, such a disruption is expected to have a long-term impact. 

Tehran has already been controlling the movement of some ships, particularly those bound for friendly countries. This has made the Strait of Hormuz the epicenter of the war. Analysts have interpreted the US blockade as a move to re-intensify the war, not just a sign of pressure. 

Meanwhile, US President Trump has expressed widespread dissatisfaction with the NATO alliance, saying that he has not received the expected support during the war with Iran. Claiming that the US has borne a huge economic and security burden for NATO for years, he said that the current behavior has disappointed him. According to Trump, the US has been spending trillions of dollars to protect Europe, especially from the threat of Russia. But he complains that NATO member countries have not supported us in times of crisis. ‘We spent a lot on NATO, but they were not with us in the war with Iran,’ Trump complained, ‘There is no point in trying to show support now that the threat has subsided.’

According to international media, Trump’s dissatisfaction with NATO is not new. Even before becoming president, he had been questioning the structure of the NATO alliance and the imbalance in member states' spending. He has also been dissatisfied with the fact that European countries have not invested enough in the defense sector. Similarly, Trump has become even more angry after NATO member states opposed his controversial statements about the annexation of Greenland to the United States. Trump has described NATO's current role as a 'stain that will never be erased' and even called the alliance a 'paper tiger'. In this context, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is reported to have described the current Gulf conflict as a 'test of the trans-Atlantic relationship'. 

However, according to analysts, President Trump is not in a position to simply withdraw the United States from NATO. For that, a two-thirds majority in the US Senate or a formal legal decision by Congress is required. In addition, such a move does not seem possible immediately, as NATO still enjoys broad support in both major parties in American politics. However, Trump does have some strategic options. Although Article 5 of the NATO treaty ensures collective security, each member is not obligated to automatically intervene militarily. In such a situation, the US could limit assistance. In addition, it has the option of withdrawing about 84,000 US troops stationed across Europe. 

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration is also considering moving US military bases from countries deemed inconvenient during a war with Iran. This is seen as creating further tension in the trans-Atlantic relationship. 

China's anger over accusations of supplying weapons to Iran 

China has categorically rejected the US accusations of supplying weapons to Iran, calling them 'baseless and malicious'. Amid US warnings and reports in international media, Beijing has reiterated that it is a country that follows a responsible export policy. 

US President Donald Trump had threatened to impose new tariffs of up to 50 percent if China provided military aid to Iran. Trump's statement came after US media reported that China was preparing to provide Iran with an air defense system in the near future. CNN, citing US intelligence sources, had indicated that China could send shoulder-launched missiles to Iran in the next few weeks. The New York Times also reported that such missiles may have already been sent. 

China released its official statement on Monday in response to all these allegations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiaqun said at a regular press conference that China will always adopt strict control and a responsible policy on the export of military equipment. "We strongly oppose baseless smears and malicious accusations," he said. China has also made it clear that it maintains a strict policy on arms supplies in accordance with its export control laws and international obligations. This seems to be an attempt to signal that it is not involved in any kind of irresponsible military intervention. 

However, China and Iran have had close economic ties. China, Iran's main oil buyer, has played a significant role in Tehran's energy exports. But analysts say the two countries have no formal military alliance and their relationship is largely based on economic and strategic interests.