Myanmar held its first round of general elections on Sunday, five years after the military took power. The second round will be held on January 11 and the third on January 25. Analysts have called the election a "showdown."

Richard Hersey, a Myanmar analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the military would retain power because the same group that staged the coup five years ago held the election. “This election is not credible,” he told the Associated Press. “They have not included any political party that has done well in previous elections.” Myanmar’s military government is directly supported by China and Thailand, and indirectly by India. Independent observers say the junta is trying to maintain support by holding a sham election to show that the government is democratic and legitimate. “Many fear that the election will inaugurate those responsible for years of extrajudicial killings,” said Joy Freeman, a researcher at Amnesty International.

Western countries have imposed sanctions on Myanmar due to its harsh crackdown on dissent and undemocratic measures. There are also travel bans on the ruling generals. Western countries have not sent observers to this election. China, India, Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Cambodia and Vietnam, Nicaragua have sent observers.

The military seized power on February 1, 2021. The military claimed that the 2020 election results were invalid because Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party rigged the voter registration process.

The mastermind of the conspiracy and military leader Min Aung Hlaing has called this election an opportunity for national reconciliation.

Voting in the shadow of civil war

Explosions and airstrikes were reported in many parts of the country during Sunday's voting, according to the British media outlet BBC.

Three people were taken to hospital after a rocket attack on a house in the Mandalay region on Sunday morning, the region's chief minister told the BBC. Earlier, a series of explosions late Saturday damaged more than a dozen houses in Myawaddy township, near the Thai border.

Voting is underway in 102 of the 330 townships on Sunday. The remaining townships will vote in the second and third phases. There will be no voting in 65 townships under rebel control. This has formally excluded at least 20 percent of the population from the electoral process. Since the military ruler will come to power, there is no enthusiasm for the large population to vote.

A total of 57 parties, including six national parties, have fielded candidates in this election. Most of the candidates are former soldiers or close to the military. The United Solidarity and Development Party, led by former soldiers, is expected to win the most seats.

A total of 1,100 seats are being contested in three phases, including the two chambers of the National Assembly, state and regional assemblies. Nearly 5,000 candidates have filed their candidacies. Myanmar's 80-year-old leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her party are not participating in the election. She is serving a 27-year prison sentence.

Her National League Party was dissolved after it refused to register under new military rules. Other parties have also boycotted the election.

Alem Bir, an analyst with the Asian Network for Free Elections, said that the major parties of 2020 no longer exist. Many leaders of major political parties are in prison.

5 years of military rule

Repression and resistance:

After seizing power in February 2021, the military has been repressing democratic views for a long time. Since October 2023, opposition groups have been staging a joint resistance against the military regime. The death toll has been high. According to the Independent Support for Political Prisoners, more than 22,000 people have been detained on political charges. More than 7,600 civilians have been killed by security forces since the military took power.

The United Nations office has said that civilians in conflict-affected areas live in fear of security forces and opposition groups. The military has also carried out airstrikes on schools, hospitals, religious sites and camps for displaced people.

Refugees:

More than 5 million people have been displaced within the country since the military took power, according to a recent UN report. Internally displaced people lack critical assistance and protection. Public services have been severely affected, with more than half the country without electricity and hospitals out of service in conflict-affected areas. According to the latest UN report, 1.5 million of the displaced have fled the country, while 3.5 million have migrated to safer places within the country.

The worst hit is in Rakhine State. Where, nearly 1.7 million Rohingya have been displaced.

Economic growth is stalled:

Since 2020, Myanmar's gross domestic product has been steadily declining. The size of the GDP has declined by 23.3 percent in the last 5 years and is expected to decline by 25 percent by fiscal year 2026, according to international organizations. This has reversed the economic growth of the previous decade. Inflation is high here. Various countries have imposed economic sanctions. The illegal economy is flourishing. Which has made the Buddhist-majority country one of the world's leading producers of opium, heroin and methamphetamine. Illegal casino operations and human trafficking are flourishing along the country's open borders.