US President Donald Trump is in the news in world politics due to his unstable policy on customs duties. It is difficult to guess what he is trying to do, not only by imposing customs duties on the products of more than a hundred countries in the world, but also by the controversial statements he gives on a daily basis.

His recent decisions regarding China and India, the two largest economies in Asia, have also been watched with interest around the world. 

Since taking office for the second time as the President of the United States last January, Trump's decisions and statements have been discussed. No one knows when he takes decisions, when he is close to which country, when he is far away and what he expects from whom. His decisions are so unstable that it is impossible to say how often they will change in a single hour, not even a day.

Recently, the customs duty imposed by the Trump administration on India is in discussion. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi openly supported Trump when he was running for a second term as president. Modi announced from the public platform that 'Abki bar Trump ki Sarkar'. It was a strange event from the perspective of US-India bilateral relations. Modi's announcement was also analyzed as a friendly relationship with Trump. 

Geopolitical affairs analysts had even predicted that after Trump was elected for a second term, India-US relations would "check" China. But Trump's latest policy regarding India has surprised everyone.  

Trump has appeared soft on China, America's main rival for economic and military power. However, he has taken a tough policy with India, which is considered to be a regional partner and friendly relationship. Which at first glance seems implausible.

Trump has imposed an additional 50 percent customs duty on Indian products for buying oil from Russia. However, India has denied Trump's allegations. Trump is pressuring India not to buy oil from Russia saying that Russia has spent the proceeds from oil sales on the war against Ukraine. 

Interestingly, China is the country that buys the most oil from Russia. But Trump has extended the agreement with China to increase the customs duty for 3 months. After China started raising tariffs in response to the US decision to increase tariffs, Trump has agreed not to impose additional tariffs against each other immediately.

According to geopolitical analysts, it is not only because of the purchase of Russian oil that the US has increased customs duties on India. Even though they have been buying oil from Russia, they have agreed with China not to increase customs duty for three months, but they claim that the issue of oil purchase is not credible in the policy authorized by Trump against India. 

According to Angraj Timilsina, an economist and international governance consultant of the United Nations, the latest policy adopted by America in relation to India is for tough "negotiation". In a recent interview with Kantipur, he said, "On the part of America, the judicial system will examine whether the tariff is legal or not." But the President has the power to raise and lower tariffs. Rather, how long it will last, whether it is only a strategy of negotiation or not, what other effects will be on the economy is important.  However, time is not given for negotiations between the two countries.'

According to him, Trump's customs policy is connected with the agenda and results of the presidential election. Timilsina says, "How many countries were told the time up to 90 days. Even now, Mexico has been extended 90 days, China has also been extended. But all this is connected with the recent election agenda and results of the US.'

Other analysts also say that the impact of the tariff policy on India is not only related to the purchase of oil. Andrew Sushentsov, a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of Russia's Security Council, claims that such pressure will not last long against India. 

Talking to the Russian news agency TASS on Saturday about the American tariff policy, he said, "The tariff is not doubled because India is buying oil from Russia." The special thing is different. India is the most populous country in the world. India is progressing rapidly. India is seen as a strategic partner in the struggle with China. America wants India to accept its leadership.' According to Timilsina, America has given this period for negotiations. So that India becomes serious about what America wants. But Indian Prime Minister Modi seems to be in favor of taking the strategy of 'whatever happens' rather than making a deal as Trump said. 

Indian Security Advisor Ajit Doval's recent visit to Russia is also seen in the same context. Doval met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And, Putin has also committed to go to India by the end of this year.

League Turner, who was the British ambassador to Ukraine from 2008 to 2012, has commented that the American policy of punishing India for Russia's military action in Ukraine is surprising. Trump, who has imposed tariffs on India for buying oil from Russia, has not taken any decision against Russia. But America could have done so many things. US took no action against Russian oil tankers. In addition, no restrictions have been imposed on banks and refineries that are supporting the Russian oil trade," he wrote in the Monday edition of the Moscow Times.

Indian analysts have also claimed that the recent behavior of the US is not related to the issue of oil purchases with Russia. India and the US have been negotiating for a new trade agreement for the past four months.

The US wanted unhindered entry of its dairy products into the Indian market, but India did not agree saying that it would affect the local production and it would have to face strong opposition. Similarly, the US demanded to reduce customs duties on agricultural products such as wheat, rice, soybeans, corn, apples, and grapes. However, the Indian side maintained its stance of not making a deal saying that the reduction of customs would cause direct loss to the farmers. Indian analysts say that it is for this reason that America has decided to increase customs duties on India. 

Trump has claimed that the decision to impose additional customs duties on India is a shock to Moscow rather than India. In an interaction with reporters at the White House on Monday, he said that the decision to impose 50 percent tariffs against China and India, which buy oil from Russia, is a blow to Russia. He claims that Russia's economy has been badly affected by his decision. 

Trump's customs policy is also being protested within the US. Analysts have also warned that if high duties are imposed on materials imported from other countries, the price of those goods will increase, which will directly affect the consumers. The Democrats of the House Foreign Affairs Committee have warned that Trump's latest decision will cause serious damage to India-US relations.  Since

, China has also condemned America's unstable customs policy. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun on Sunday described Trump's decision as an abuse of customs tariffs. He said, "China is against this kind of misuse of customs duties."

The US should stop politicizing technology and trade issues. The US State Department claims that despite the tension between the two countries due to the increase in customs duties, there is dialogue between the two sides. According to Tommy Pigot, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, dialogue is being held to resolve the differences. 

Analysts say Trump's tariff policy has increased the risk of a global economic recession and trade war. However, they express doubt that his policy will remain stable. Analysts claim that the policy will not last long considering the changes that have been decided and the reactions that have been expressed.