Jhapa-5 is in the news in the House of Representatives elections to be held on 21 Falgun. Two heavyweight leaders Balen Shah and KP Sharma Oli are contesting here. Although the competition in Jhapa-5 is fierce, many parties, including Balen's Rastriya Swotantra Party (RSP) are looking at Madhesh as a big and decisive ground as there are many seats in the province.

Not only the  Rastriya Swotantra Party (RSP), but all the major political parties are trying to win as many seats as possible out of the 32 available seats in Madhesh province. Congress President Gagan Kumar Thapa is a candidate from Sarlahi-4. The Congress, which considers Madhesh as its traditional stronghold, is releasing its election manifesto in Janakpur on Wednesday, giving importance to it. The Congress's previous plan was to release the manifesto at the party headquarters in Sanepa on Monday. But now it is giving priority to Madhesh.

Out of the 165 direct seats in the House of Representatives, Madhesh Province is second only to Bagmati Province (33 seats). This region is also considered important for proportional representation due to its large number of voters.

Shah addressed a rally of the Rastriya Swotantra Party (RSP) in Janakpur on January 19 after resigning from the post of mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City. The RSP has set a goal of becoming the largest party in the country from this election.

To give momentum to its campaign, the  RSP has presented Balen Shah, who was born in Mahottari district and raised in Kathmandu, as the future Prime Minister. Earlier, when Shah was the mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City for three years and six months, he did not do much to identify himself as a Madheshi. But in this election, it seems important to understand that from Congress President Gagan to senior RSP leader Balen and other parties are also trying to appear Madhesh-centric.

According to journalist and Madhesh political analyst Roshan Janakpuriya, Madhesh-centric parties had clear political agendas in the first Madhesh movement (before the first Constituent Assembly elections) and the second Madhesh movement (after the promulgation of the constitution). At that time, politics was easier for them in Madhesh than other parties. However, Janakpuriya said that Madhesh parties are now in a difficult situation as they have not been able to fulfill their commitments to the people and are becoming centralized in power. Janakpuriya said that national parties have started giving priority to Madhesh while the agenda of regional parties is fading. They want to regain the influence they lost during the first Constituent Assembly.

With only 18 days left for the elections, people are interested in the possibility of the RSP in Madhesh. However, Madhesh affairs analyst Chandra Kishore says, ‘This curiosity is not a deep belief in the party.’ It is just the enthusiasm of the current wave. But Chandrakishore admitted that Madhesh is looking for change.

Chandrakishore said that people in Madhesh had two different opinions about Shah's election rallies. Chandrakishore says, 'He failed to interact with voters in Madhesh and other regions during the campaign. People did not take this positively.'

'It is not just the 32 seats in the House of Representatives that have made Madhesh politically important,' Janakpuriya said, 'As regional parties are weakening, other political forces have turned their attention to Madhesh for the upcoming elections.'

'Although there is a wave of support for the Rastriya Swotantra Party (RSP) in Madhesh, many factors will play a role in the elections. It is important for parties to reach out to voters, especially those who are deprived of voter education,' he said.

He said that the RSP, which does not have a strong organizational base, will face competition from organized parties like the Congress, UML and Madhesh-centric parties. Those who are closely following the developments in Madhesh say that some RSP candidates are waiting for Balen to visit their constituencies. The candidates have considered his presence important.

Sohan Shah, former vice-chairman of the Madhesh Province Planning Commission and researcher, said that the public wave seen in favor of the RSP at the Janakpur rally did not continue in the days that followed. He said that even if the RSP did not win many direct seats, it could do better than other parties in the proportional elections. 'RSP is currently doing 'politics of violence' in Madhesh. While the Congress is presenting itself as mature,' Shah said, 'Similarly, if the UML can garner cluster votes like in the previous elections, its position will not be too weak.' Shah predicted that there would be an all-out competition between the Congress, UML, the Rastriya Swotantra Party (RSP) and Madhesh-centric parties in Madhesh. Like Chandra Kishore, Shah also said that it would be difficult for the RSP to achieve the desired results in the House of Representatives in Madhesh due to its weak organizational structure. According to Shah, out of the 32 direct seats in Madhesh, 21 of the RSP' candidates had contested the election from different parties in the previous election. Therefore, it is also difficult to promote the RSP as a completely 'new' political force.