Ram Bahadur Gurung of Lo-Ghekar Rural Municipality, Marang, has been in Kathmandu for one and a half months after the cold weather hit Upper Mustang. He works at the Lomanthang office of the Annapurna Conservation Area Project (ACAP) in Upper Mustang and is not sure if he will return to his village to participate in the elections. Upper Mustang residents who have come to cities including Pokhara and Kathmandu to escape the cold start returning home only in the last week of Falgun or the first week of Chaitra.

Farmers return from mid-Falgun. Upper Mustang, who sow wheat, paddy and raise livestock, returns a little earlier than others, but the number of farmers is now fewer, says Gurung. ‘Earlier, there were three plows in my house, now one plow is enough for three-four families,’ he says. ‘It is difficult to return for the elections as there are fewer farmers.’ 

Since winter is not over, there is a possibility of snowfall, and if there is heavy snowfall, the elections in Upper Mustang will be almost impossible. ‘Even if the elections are held, less than 60 percent of the votes will be cast,’ he said. Of the five Mustang municipalities, Lomanthang and Lo-Ghekar fall in the upper part. Thasang, Gharpajhong and Baragung Muktikshetra municipalities receive comparatively less snowfall. 

Lomanthang rural municipality executive member Pasang Gurung is waiting in the village. He said that there are currently only 50-60 locals in Lomanthang-5, which has a population of about 900. He estimates that the voter turnout in Upper Mustang will be low in the election. ‘Those who are farmers will come soon, those who have sent their children abroad are in Pokhara-Kathmandu, and will return only after it gets warmer in Baisakh,’ he said, ‘If the leaders call them, they will come, but so far the leaders have not arrived.’ 

In Mustang, which has only one constituency, UML candidate Indradhara Bista is visiting houses in Pokhara. He said that most of the locals of Upper Mustang have come to Pokhara to escape the cold and do business, so he is meeting voters. After the meeting in Pokhara, he is preparing to go to meet voters in Kathmandu. He hopes that the voters will return soon as the Korala border crossing is operational. ‘It is difficult to transport voters from Pokhara to Kathmandu, it is difficult to call voters within the budget of the Election Commission,’ he says, ‘Those committed to the party return on their own, we are telling others to go and vote too.’ 

He said that if there is heavy snowfall, the road could be blocked for a week. ‘There is no way to know the location of the snow, if it falls, it will be difficult to hold the election,’ he said. Along with him in Mustang, Congress’s Yogesh Gauchan Thakali, Ngutuk Gurung of the NCP, RPP’s Kamala Lalchan, RSP’s Aditya Chandra Thakali, Mongol National Organization’s Yama Bahadur Gurung, Aam Janata Party’s Ajay BK and Ujjwal Nepal Party’s Surendra Sherchan are in the fray. 

The Mustang District Security Committee has considered 9 polling stations sensitive due to adverse weather and geography. District Election Officer Lokendra Bahadur Gyawali says that although there are no complications due to human factors in Mustang, weather and geography will be a challenge. He said that vehicles cannot reach some villages due to heavy snowfall and it is difficult to walk. "There is a village called Sangta connected to Dolpa, villages like Yara and Ghara in Lo-Ghekar Damodarkunda rural municipality are remote," he said, "One is the weather challenge, the other is the concern about low voter turnout." However, he said that work is being done as per the Election Commission's schedule and the office is ready to hold the election on the scheduled date.

Snow is still accumulating in Narpabhumi rural municipality of Manang, another mountainous district of Gandaki. Most of the houses in the rural municipality are empty. The locals there have gone to Pokhara and Kathmandu to escape the cold. The District Security Committee has placed the polling stations in all 5 wards of Narpabhumi as very sensitive. It takes three days to reach Narpabhumi, which is not accessible by road, by walking from the district headquarters Chame.

According to Govinda Prasad Aryal, information officer of the District Election Office, employees prepare the way to Narpa Bhumi five days in advance by carrying ballot boxes and other election materials on horses from the district headquarters. They stay for two nights in between and reach Narpa Bhumi. After the voting is over, the polling officer returns to the headquarters with the ballot boxes in a helicopter. The assistant polling officer, other employees and security personnel return on foot. ‘This time, there is a possibility of fewer votes due to the weather and geography,’ he says. ‘We hope that voters will start returning as Falgun begins in the last week.’ Out of 28 polling stations in Manang, 5 are highly sensitive, 14 are sensitive and 9 are normal.

According to a local from Manang, earlier, when the Congress and UML were competing, there was a race to take voters to their villages by helicopter from Kathmandu and Pokhara. Candidates used to spend crores of rupees to transport voters. This time, however, UML and RPP have not fielded their candidates, supporting Congress’s Tek Bahadur Gurung. He is competing with NCP's Yashoda Gurung (Subedi) and Mongol National Organization's Ram Bahadur Ghale. "Now that UML is not fielding a candidate, it has become easier for Congress to win. There is no need to spend a lot of money to attract voters like before," said the local from Manang. "If no one attracts voters, the number of people who come to vote will be less."