Will the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) strengthen its presence in Madhesh after merging with Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah's group? Before understanding the answer to this question, it is necessary to understand how many MPs are elected from the constituencies of Madhesh Province and where the RSSP has a strong presence.

In terms of the number of members elected to the House of Representatives under the direct election system, Madhesh Province ranks second after Bagmati Province. Out of the 165 representatives elected to the parliament, 33 are elected from Bagmati Province and 32 from Madhesh Province. Bagmati and Madhesh are the provinces of Nepal with the highest population density in Nepal. That is, these two provinces alone account for about 21 percent of the total population of Nepal. Therefore, relatively more MPs are elected from these two provinces even under the proportional system.

By assessing the strength of which party's hold in Bagmati and Madhesh, it is easy to predict which party will be strong in the upcoming House of Representatives elections. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) which participated in the parliamentary elections for the first time in 2079 BS emerged as the fourth largest party in its first journey. In this election, the RSS showed its strong presence in urban constituencies like Kathmandu and Chitwan in Bagmati Province. However, the RSS could not show its presence in Madhesh. In the by-election held in 2080 Baisakh, Janata Samajwadi Party Chairman Upendra Yadav, who is in a multi-party alliance, won by 25,000 more votes than Rashtriya Swayamsevak Party candidate Ramesh Kharel. Kharel was limited to fourth place.

Will Rashtriya Swayamsevak Party strengthen its presence in Madhesh after merging with Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah's group? Rashtriya Swayamsevak Party leaders have been saying that the party has planned to include Madhesh in a different way and that the party's situation in Madhesh has improved significantly after merging with Shah. They believe that the party can perform well in Madhesh since Shah, who hails from Mahottari, is in the top role of the party. With the seven-point agreement reached between Rashtriya Swayamsevak Party and Mayor Shah on Poush 12, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Party has nominated Shah as the future Prime Minister on behalf of the party. Immediately after the party merger, In an interview with Kathmandu Post, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Party leader Shishir Khanal had said that there was a great electoral potential for the party in Madhesh. He had said, ‘The next area we are expanding into is Madhesh.’ It seems too early to say whether the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has become strong in Madhesh or not, as leader Khanal said. Analyst Chandra Kishore said that the Madheshi community is watching the process of new political forces uniting to form the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) with both curiosity and surprise. He said that the citizens of Madhesh are also watching this unity with interest because of the established parties that have been dominating state institutions for a long time, and he also commented that the rise of new forces has put some Madhesh parties in an uncomfortable position. In an interview with Kathmandu Post, he said, ‘How the unified Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh defines and prioritizes the core issues of Madhesh will determine its election results. Without a clear and credible agenda that directly addresses local concerns, it will be challenging to convert the national-level momentum into support in Madhesh.’

Since Shah was elected mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, it remains to be seen how much and how he will engage with Madhesh issues, said a Madhesh observer. Chandra Kishore said that although the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) does not currently have a strong presence in Madhesh, it has built some ground around the highway area. He said that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has had difficulty expanding its organizational base and political reach as it has not been able to attract influential figures from other parties. ‘The next area we are expanding into is Madhesh-  Shishir Khanal

Another political analyst from Madhesh, Tula Narayan Shah, agrees with some of Chandra Kishore's analysis, but has a different view on the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and its prospects in Madhesh. According to him, the joining of Mayor Shah and Energy Minister Kulman Ghisingh to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has had a positive impact on the party in Madhesh. He said that although some Madhesh leaders within the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) have a visible level of influence in Kathmandu, the party as a whole has not yet gained ground in Madhesh. He argued that this weakness is due to the different political realities in Madhesh and the hills.

Tula Narayan, citing the backdrop of voters in Madhesh facing long-term discrimination along with misgovernance, said that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has failed to present a strong and credible position on the issue. He said, in contrast, the Janmat Party led by CK Raut has been able to challenge the established Madhesh parties because it has raised a clear and strong voice on both the issues of misgovernance and discrimination.

Shah said that the political landscape has changed after the Gen-G uprising in Bhadau and Mayor Shah's popularity has increased in Madhesh, emphasizing that such popularity has not increased only because Shah is a Madhesh.

So why has Mayor Shah's appeal increased in Madhesh?

Shah pointed out two main reasons. First, the general perception that he is personally far from corruption. Second, the scholarship program launched by the Kathmandu Metropolitan City, from which students from different communities have benefited and some students from almost every group have received assistance.

While many representatives at the local, provincial and federal levels are seen securing budgets only for themselves and their close groups, analyst Shah said that Mayor Shah's working style has created trust and goodwill among the general public.

Meanwhile, Madhesi voters are curious about Mayor Shah and the RSVP's views on core Madhesi concerns, including federalism. Shah says that only after a clear view on these issues is made public can we assess how their electoral politics in Madhesh will turn out.

RSVP leaders say they want to make some radical changes to the current three-tier federal structure. They are especially critical of the current provincial structure. Earlier, Mayor Shah's decision not to vote in the provincial assembly elections was also considered an anti-provincial view. But recently, Mayor Shah has said that he is committed to the constitution and its provisions.