In the first term of the Provincial Assembly, 10 out of 11 former Maoist MPs became ministers and one deputy speaker. In the second term, one out of 13 MPs became deputy speaker and nine ministers.
What you should know
After one division after another, the former Maoists in Karnali have started to weaken. In the recent elections, the former Maoists have been losing public support, and the base area has become weaker after the exit of influential leaders of the former Maoists.
Earlier, influential former Maoist leaders in Karnali, including Khadka Bahadur Bishwakarma, Lokendra Bista, Hemant Prakash Oli, Dharmendra Bastola, and others, had left the former Maoists, while Janardan Sharma, who is considered the most influential former Maoist in Karnali, has formed the Progressive Democratic Party.
Former Karnali Chief Minister Rajkumar Sharma, Gorkha Bahadur KC, and other leaders have joined the party. Sharma is the only leader to be elected by increasing the margin of votes four times in a row in the elections held after the former Maoists entered the peace process.
He won the parliamentary elections in 2064 with 22,575 votes, in 2070 with 30,270 votes, in 2074 with 34,402 votes, and in 2079 with 39,549 votes. He has also become the Minister of Peace and Reconstruction, Finance, Energy, and Home Affairs.
‘Even when public opinion in other districts became weaker, he continued to win by increasing the margin, which also shows his influence and popularity,’ said political analyst Narendra KC. ‘The Maoists have become weaker since he did not side with the establishment.’
In the 2064 BS election, the former Maoists were the leading force in 10 districts of the former Mid-West. In that election, 19 MPs, including 11 direct and 8 proportional, were elected from the former Maoists. In the second Constituent Assembly election of 2070 BS, the number of former Maoist MPs, including four direct and three proportional, fell to 7.
Even in the 2074 BS election, the Maoists were able to win only 5 House of Representatives constituencies, and in 2079 BS, they lost one seat and were limited to four. He says that even though the Maoists were in power continuously since the Maoists entered the peace process until Asad 2081 BS, the Maoists were also weakened by the former Maoists’ neglect of ex-combatants, the injured, and people with disabilities.
‘The leaders also focused on family and relatives,’ he said, ‘they could not do the work they thought they would on the issue of livelihood.’ According to him, the armed conflict and forgetting the commitments made in various elections and factionalism within the party have also reduced the attraction of cadres to the Maoists.
Sharma and another former Maoist leader Shakti Bahadur Basnet had been ministers from Karnali four times each in the federal government, while Khadka Bahadur Bishwakarma became a minister twice. But now Sharma and Bishwakarma have left the party. ‘When both leaders parted ways with the party leadership, its negative impact can be seen on the former Maoists for a long time,’ said Kamal Lamsal, associate professor at Madhya Paschim University. ‘Even when former Maoists sometimes join some party and sometimes join some party, the cadres have been disappointed.’
The Maoists led the Karnali government twice. Mahendra Bahadur Shahi and Rajkumar Sharma became chief ministers, while in the first term of the provincial assembly, 10 out of 11 MPs from the former Maoists became ministers and one deputy speaker. In the second term, one of the 13 has become the deputy speaker and 9 ministers. According to the data of the Provincial Assembly Secretariat, only 3 former Maoists are yet to become ministers in this term.
The influence of the former Maoists is also weakening at the local level. In the 2074 local level elections, the UML got 38 percent of the vote, the Maoists 32 percent, and the Congress 27 percent. But in 2079, the Maoists were limited to 23 municipalities. In the 2079 local level elections, the former Maoists won 5 mayors, 5 deputy mayors, 18 chairmen, and 20 vice chairmen out of 79 local levels in Karnali. Associate Professor Lamsal said that even in the places where they had control, the people were stuck with the former Maoists.
Before Sharma left the party, the Maoists' organizational position was strongest in Rukum West and Kalikot. Mahendra Bahadur Shahi has also won elections three times from Kalikot. But political analyst KC said that the upcoming elections will be challenging for the former Maoists as the leaders in both districts are divided into different groups.
‘The situation of the former socialists is also weak in both districts,’ he said, ‘That is why even if the party is unified, the former Maoists do not seem to benefit much, especially since the alliance is widespread, the upcoming elections will be more challenging.’
Former Maoist provincial chair Bimala KC claimed that the former Maoists have become stronger after the unification. ‘Recently, there have been many more people coming together than separating,’ she said, ‘Some things about unity are still to be finalized, after which we will move forward towards making the party the first in Karnali through various campaigns, programs and election-focused activities.’
