In 1703, British writer Daniel Defoe was sentenced to public humiliation by being tied to a ‘pillory’ (a wooden post) in a London square. At that time, the only objective of the state was to humiliate him through a crowd. However, instead of finding a legal and sustainable solution, this style of the state that used public humiliation as a weapon neither improved the then system nor calmed the discontent. After 323 years, the new government in Nepal, which has been displacing the old parties, has started adopting the ‘digital’ form of the same ‘pillory’ in the name of good governance.

The arrival of the current government and the wave of rebellious people are exciting. The best part of this is that the current government has made economic growth, good governance and corruption control not only the basis for measuring its success, but also the foundation on which it will survive. However, the more sacred these goals are, the more complicated the path to achieving them is. The reality that has begun to emerge inside Singha Durbar two and a half months after Balendra Shah (Balen) became the Prime Minister is many times harsher than the election atmosphere seen outside.

Reflecting on this harsh reality, rising above the debate on the immediate good or bad aspects of the Balen government, this article has attempted to assess the country's imminent future. Due to the clash between cheap popularity (populism) and structural reality, five serious risks (traps) have now emerged before the government. The article will evaluate these administrative, economic, political, geopolitical and psychological maneuvers that will directly affect the success or failure of the government.

These risks are creating four possible scenarios for the coming days. How the Prime Minister resolves these obstacles within the next 18 months will determine the success or failure of the government. However, if the symptoms seen so far persist, the government is much more likely to fail than succeed. Therefore, to avoid potential political and economic disasters, the current government must abandon the path of destroying things for cheap applause and choose the mature path of building systems and institutions.

This tough test of system building and maturity has begun. Today marks the completion of two and a half months since the government was formed. As the post-election 'honeymoon' period is coming to an end, the government has emerged from the euphoria of the public wave and entered the harsh terrain of challenges and public surveillance. Initial decisions such as revoking old political appointments and arresting 'corrupt' people have certainly aroused enthusiasm among the people. But now these steps alone are not enough. The time has come to reform from the ground up, increase capital expenditure and deliver results at the grassroots level.

Amid the pressure to produce results, Prime Minister Balen's mindset and style have come to the surface as the main challenge. Even after becoming Prime Minister, he has not abandoned his 'rapper' background and 'dis-track' (abusing) style. He can aggressively attack anyone to please his supporters, setting aside the dignity of his position. Although at first glance it may seem like he is in a hurry, his statements are planned to attract media attention and show himself as a fighter. By deceiving traditional media and making secret letters or personal messages public, he has made transparency a weapon that can expose or humiliate the bureaucracy and old players among millions of young people.

This style of the Prime Minister is having the opposite effect on the governance and diplomacy. On the one hand, this aggressive style of the Prime Minister's Office and on the other hand, the different thinking and styles of the bureaucracy, political parties and foreign countries have led to various types of friction. The government is looking for quick results, but due to constant humiliation and fear, the bureaucracy is not ready to move forward until it is completely safe. This conflict between the Prime Minister's working style and the state machinery may ultimately hold the government's overall results hostage.

5 serious risks facing the government

Now let's see in the above background - what are the five main obstacles that are controlling the current government and its future?

Silent non-cooperation and protection of employees: The Balen government wants to break the web of employees. But the government needs the support of the same bureaucracy to achieve the goal of good governance and development. There is a huge difference between the way the public sees employees and the way the employees themselves understand the civil service. The public looks at employees with hatred. When people talk about the bureaucracy, they use words like corruption, slowness, middlemen and workaholics together. Therefore, no matter how strict the government takes to reform the bureaucracy or punish the employees, the people are happy. Using this anger towards government employees, the current government is rushing to reform the administration.

On the other hand, there is a growing understanding within the employees' own circle that the essence of the civil service is being attacked. These days, they are at a crossroads between defense and torture. When describing their current situation, they use words like extreme insecurity, fear, morale, and rule of law. They argue that they have been made scapegoats due to years of unrest, legal complications, and the compulsion to follow legal procedures. A direct effect of this is seen in their behavior. Gradually, they are retreating from active service delivery and moving towards a path of self-preservation.

These days, the Prime Minister's Office is trying to run the administration like a corporate company. Many reforms have been initiated in the administration. Many employees are also positive about this. However, when the political leadership does not involve administrators in the decision-making process, cannot trust them, and cannot give them a sense of security, then online systems (such as PMIS and EGP) can have the opposite effect. Since the online system keeps a permanent record of every decision, employees check every file hundreds of times for fear of falling into the trap of the authorities tomorrow. There is no need for them to go on strike. Instead, they can adopt the strategy of 'malicious compliance' (following the law literally and obstructing work) by exploiting loopholes in the law, procedure, and the Public Procurement Act. A mechanism that feels unsafe will not work by taking risks.

Internal strife and ideological gambling between the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the government: In the pursuit of quick results, Prime Minister Balen will seek cheap popularity and try to move forward even if it means violating the legal process to some extent. If he starts moving forward as a unilateral and powerful ruler, the core leadership like Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle and party president Ravi Lamichhane will take the side of economic rules and legal process. In this way, Ravi Lamichhane and his supporters have started feeling marginalized due to Balen's personal brand. When the Prime Minister's ambitious but undisclosed plans are blocked by the party and the Finance Ministry, there is a risk that such a large majority of 182 seats will be divided into two factions. This clash between the Prime Minister's whims and the rules of the party machinery can hold the Parliament hostage.

For example, let's look at the visit of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) President Ravi Lamichhane to New Delhi a few days ago. This was not just an ordinary political meeting. India's red carpet rollout for Lamichhane after the Prime Minister's strong stance on the Lipulekh issue is a strategic move. It is clear that the Indian side views Prime Minister Shah as a 'hardliner' and is trying to put forward Lamichhane as an easy option for dialogue with Nepal. This has increased the risk of the Prime Minister becoming diplomatically isolated in domestic politics and becoming a parallel power center within the RSS.

The ability to deliver results and the country's economic reality: The silent non-cooperation of the bureaucracy will have a direct impact on the economy. Capital expenditure is required to implement the ambitious budget of Rs 2.1 trillion. However, when procurement processes are stopped due to fear, capital expenditure is halted. This dries up the flow of money in the market, employment is not created, and the revenue collection target cannot be met. When revenue does not rise, the government has to raise internal debt, which takes away the credit available to the private sector. We face a serious economic risk that the government's target of achieving an economic growth rate of 6-7 percent will remain on paper due to non-performance (delivery void).

Balance with foreign powers and diplomatic risks: A huge risk can arise when an inexperienced government tries to conduct foreign policy based on cheap digital nationalism, ignoring institutional diplomacy. The government is forced to please the social media crowd and also carry out institutional diplomatic talks, which is not possible.

Now, the US, India, and China are all examining the real inclinations of this government from within. In such a sensitive situation, the price of hyper-nationalist expressions made to the public to cover up internal failures or even a small mistake in the balance between BRI and American interests can be very expensive for the country.  With the slightest deterioration in the diplomatic balance, undeclared administrative blockades at the border, trade barriers, silent non-cooperation or blocking of foreign investment can lead to a situation where our economy is in a state of collapse . 

If Nepal's economy is to be strengthened, it must be able to build trusting relations with the US, China and India . But within two months of the formation of the new government, deep cracks have begun to form within . Prime Minister Balen's nationalist stance, strict protocol and the subsequent high-level visit to India by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) President Ravi Lamichhane have created a new wave in the balance of power between Kathmandu and New Delhi .

Public mood and social media trends: The mood of the Gen-G generation, which brought the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) to power, is extremely volatile, and they are currently in a state of extreme euphoria. Their support is mainly based on issues like digital transparency and 100-day delivery. However, this generation does not understand the Public Procurement Act or the administrative complexities. They directly evaluate the system. If the government fails to deliver results within the next 18 months, their understanding will rapidly shift from anti-corruption to anti-system thinking.

As the algorithms of social media platforms like Facebook and TikTok heavily promote sensational, emotional, and ultra-nationalist content to keep users engaged for a long time, the mindset of the general public around the world is gradually shifting towards right-wing ideology. As clear evidence of this, we can take the extremist populist wave that is being established in Europe and America and the sharp division in Nepal in favor of the restoration of the Hindu nation and the monarchy by singing the disappointment of the young generation with the system through the same TikTok and Facebook.

Possible scenario

The five risks mentioned above do not work alone. When this unstable and violent state of mind of the people collides with the previously discussed silent non-cooperation of the administration, internal strife of the party, weak economy and diplomatic risks, then what turn can the country's politics take? The mutual collision of these five obstacles is likely to create four clear scenarios for the coming days:

Non-cooperation of the administration and the path of cheap nationalism

Silent non-cooperation of the bureaucracy may cause capital expenditure to fall to a low point. The 100-day goals may fail. To save his declining popularity, the Prime Minister can publicly denounce the bureaucracy as a ‘deep state’ and resort to ultra-nationalism. This will further incapacitate the system and drive citizens into extreme divisions. In the short term, the Prime Minister’s team may receive digital applause, but in the medium term, the widespread demoralization among employees may bring state governance, service delivery, capital expenditure, and development work to a standstill. Therefore, the current government is risking its credibility by treating the bureaucracy as a threat.

The psychology of the youth will shift towards right-wing and ultra-nationalist ideas, reaching a dangerous point where they will demand a powerful ruler who can override the constitution and dominate the bureaucracy.

A fractured majority

The main enemy of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is its own internal structure. काम गर्न नसकेको झोंकमा प्रधानमन्त्रीले प्रक्रिया मिचेर ठाडो आदेशबाट काम गर्न खोज्नेछन्, जसलाई अर्थमन्त्री वाग्ले र मूल नेतृत्वले आर्थिक नियमका नाममा रोक्नेछन् । प्रधानमन्त्री र पार्टी संयन्त्रबीचको यो जुँगाको लडाइँ र प्रणालीको टकरावले रास्वपा दुई चिरामा फुट्नेछ । १८२ सिटको अभूतपूर्व बहुमत परस्परविरोधी गुटहरूमा बाँडिनेछ । सरकार पूर्ण रूपमा ठप्प हुनेछ र युवा पुस्तामा राजनीतिप्रति भयानक दिक्दारी जाग्नेछ । गुटगत आन्तरिक कलहले संसद्लाई बन्धक बनाउनेछ, जसले गर्दा कानुन बनाउने र आर्थिक कामहरू पूर्ण रूपमा रोकिनेछन् । सामाजिक सञ्जालले यही निराशाको फाइदा उठाउनेछ र मतदाताहरूलाई रास्वपाको विकल्प खोज्दै चरम तथा व्यवस्थाविरोधी शक्तिहरूतर्फ धकेल्नेछ ।

आर्थिक संकट र कूटनीतिक एक्लोपन

यस अवस्थामा आफ्नो आन्तरिक असफलता लुकाउन सरकारले कूटनीतिक मर्यादा भुलेर छिमेकी राष्ट्रविरुद्ध सस्तो अभिव्यक्ति दिन्छ । यसको बदलामा भारत वा चीनबाट असहयोग वा ‘सिस्टम फेलियर’ को सामना गर्नुपर्छ । विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति घट्छ, पुँजी बाहिरिन्छ र देश गम्भीर आर्थिक र राष्ट्रिय सुरक्षाको संकटमा फस्छ । नेपालले व्यापारिक अवरोध, वैदेशिक लगानीमा ढिलाइ वा अघोषित पारवहन अवरोधको सामना गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ, जसले विदेशी मुद्रा सञ्चिति तीव्र रूपमा घटाउँछ र धेरै आन्तरिक ऋण उठाउन बाध्य पार्छ, जसका कारण निजी क्षेत्रको कर्जा सुक्न पुग्छ । चरम आर्थिक त्रास र अचाक्ली महँगीको डरले गर्दा गणतन्त्रको जगप्रतिको विश्वास नै भत्काउँछ ।

सफल परिवर्तन

यो सबैभन्दा राम्रो तर कठिन अवस्था हो । यसका लागि प्रधानमन्त्रीले स–साना विषयमा हस्तक्षेप गर्न छाडेर कर्मचारीलाई काम गर्ने ‘कानुनी सुरक्षा’ प्रदान गर्छन् । निजामती ऐन र खरिद ऐन परिमार्जन हुन्छ । सुरक्षित महसुस गरेको प्रशासनले डिजिटल सुधारलाई अपनाउँछ, पुँजीगत खर्च बढ्छ र अर्थतन्त्र ६–७ प्रतिशतको वृद्धिदरमा स्थिर हुन्छ । रास्वपा नेपालको स्थायी संस्थागत शक्ति बन्छ । निरन्तर आशावादले ठाउँ पाउँछ । रास्वपाले राजनीतिक केन्द्रविन्दुमा आफ्नो पकड पूर्ण रूपमा जमाउँछ र पुराना दलहरूलाई प्रभावकारी रूपमा हटाउँदै आफूलाई स्थायी सत्ताका रूपमा स्थापित गर्छ ।

निष्कर्ष

प्रधानमन्त्री र उहाँको टिमलाई लाग्न सक्छ– ‘पुराना कर्मचारी भ्रष्ट छन्, तिनलाई यसरी नै त्रासमा नराख्ने हो भने झन् लुट्छन् । कठोर नभई कसरी सुशासन आउँछ ?’ यो तर्क बाहिर सुन्दा लोकप्रिय लागे पनि यथार्थमा खतरनाक छ । हुन त सरकारले प्रशासनिक सुधार गर्दै, कर्मचारीको मनोबल बढाएर होस् वा तर्साएर, कर्मचारीतन्त्रबाट काम लिन सक्छ । तर त्रासको मनस्थितिले खुला भ्रष्टाचार त रोक्ला, यसले सम्पूर्ण कामलाई नै रोकिदिन्छ । सरकारलाई कामै नहुने तर भ्रष्टाचार पनि नहुने अवस्था चाहिएको हो कि नतिजासहितको सुशासन ? प्रशासकलाई असल नियतले गरेको निर्णयमा भोलि अख्तियारले डाम्दैन भन्ने सुनिश्चित नभएसम्म उसले फाइल रोकेरै बस्छ । साँचो सुशासन प्रणालीले दिने हो, व्यक्तिको निरन्तरको धम्कीले होइन ।