There are moments in Nepal's history that determine not just the government, but the future direction of the country. Nepal is currently at exactly the same juncture.

The country, which has spent more than three decades in political transitions, movements, power balances, and ideological struggles, is now grappling with a serious question - will Nepal still waste another decade in political debates? Or will it start a new era by putting the economy at the center of national priorities?

Nepal, which entered its democratic journey after 2046, has changed 30 prime ministers in 35 years. On average, a government has only lasted 1.18 years. From the end of the Rana regime to the Panchayat system, people's movement, Maoist conflict, Madhesh movement, blockade, and the current Gen-G discontent, the country has been busy with continuous political turmoil.

However, the situation is somewhat different now. A political opportunity of about two-thirds has been created, which has given the possibility of advancing the agenda of economic transformation with a long-term vision. History has shown that 'short-term' thinking cannot lead any country to the path of prosperity.

It is time to focus on building a long-term economic mechanism rather than short-term revenue collection and immediate development expenditure. A country will not prosper by opening roads and percentage of budget expenditure alone. A long-term thinking is necessary to increase purchasing power, create employment, increase productivity and strengthen institutional capacity.

If the procurement act is strengthened, a structure is created for timely project completion, the bureaucracy is oriented towards institutional capacity development and an environment is created that gives a 'sense of security' to businessmen, employees and investors, Nepal can lay the foundation for an economic growth rate of above 7 percent.

The questions being raised by today's generation are also more economic than political. Unemployment reaching 16.6 percent and youth unemployment reaching 22.7 percent are not just statistics, but a sign of frustration with the system. Service delivery is weak, opportunities are limited, and the private sector is still under suspicion.

Today, millions of Nepali youth have the same question – what to do after returning to Nepal?

Trust in the country is gradually weakening. Political instability, policy uncertainty, administrative delays, and lack of opportunities have increased frustration among the young generation. If we can instill trust, thousands of skilled youth who have gone abroad today can be brought back to the country.

In this context, a new discourse is currently being born in Nepal – Economy First. That is, a decisive turn from a politically-centric governance to an economically-centric national approach.

Today's Nepal: A country with more potential than crisis.

When discussing Nepal, facts of despair are often repeated – weak production, increasing imports, labor migration, slow investment, and incomplete infrastructure. These facts are not wrong.

However, the country does not move forward simply by repeating problems. The important thing is that Nepal has a much bigger opportunity today than in the past. Foreign exchange reserves have now reached a level that can cover more than 18 months of imports. There is sufficient liquidity in the banking system. The potential for political stability is stronger than in the past.

The most important thing is that Nepal has an extraordinary geopolitical opportunity standing between the world's two fastest growing economies, India and China. But, ironically, this opportunity is still limited to paper only.

Nearly two-thirds of the political opportunity has been created, which has given the possibility of advancing the agenda of economic transformation with a long-term vision. Today's world economy is based on the 'geography of opportunity'. Nepal's geography itself is an economic asset. However, geography alone is not enough. A policy is needed to convert it into economic strength.

Nepal must now place middle class development at the center of economic policy. Only when the middle class is strong will consumption increase, industry grow, employment increase and per capita income go up.

There is only one mantra for that – investment, investment and more investment.

Energy: Nepal's 'game changer'

If only one sector can decisively change the future of Nepal, it is the energy sector.

Nepal has about 83 thousand megawatts of hydropower potential. Out of this, about 42 thousand megawatts are considered technically and economically feasible. Currently, electricity generation in Nepal has reached over 4,100 megawatts. More importantly, projects with a capacity of more than 25 thousand megawatts in the pipeline have been licensed.

This sends a clear message – Nepal is no longer just a country of potential, but a country that has entered the real phase of energy production.

However, to convert such a huge potential into economic transformation, it is necessary to change the thinking and working style of the state. The energy sector should not be limited to rhetoric as a ‘national priority’ but should be taken to practical implementation.

Even today, investors are confused by the uncertain policy of opening and closing PPAs. PPAs should be opened continuously for projects up to 30,000 MW. Investors are not afraid of when the policy will change, but are looking for long-term trust.

Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) currently has an almost exclusive role in the energy trade. However, the energy economy of the future cannot be sustained by a single organization. The private sector should also be allowed to enter power trading. Only if a competitive ecosystem is created in the energy trade can Nepal become a strong player in the regional energy market.

The private sector has been allowed to enter hydropower, now the same model should be applied to transmission lines. Foreign and domestic private investment should be encouraged in domestic and international transmission lines.

Nepal should enter long-term energy trade agreements with India and Bangladesh. Short-term agreements do not give investors confidence. If India's investment in the energy sector can be further encouraged, Nepal can become a regional energy hub.

Energy is not just a matter of selling electricity, it is also the basis for building new industries. Green hydrogen, fertilizer industry, aluminum industry, data centers, AI computing and high-energy consuming digital industries are new possibilities for Nepal.

Bhutan has already created a new source of government income through energy-based crypto mining. Nepal should also study the possibility of energy-based digital industries with regulation.

The cost of electricity produced in Nepal is lower than in many countries of the world. There is also a suitable temperature and environment for server operation. This is why Nepal can become an emerging destination for data centers.

Such projects increase dollar income, employment and energy consumption in Nepal.

Tax concessions and incentive policies in the energy sector should also be continued. Currently, a policy has been implemented to provide full income tax exemption for 10 to 15 years after the start of production for reservoir and renewable energy projects and then a 50 percent exemption for a few more years. Low customs facilities are also provided for equipment imports.

Such a concession is inevitable as it is a sector with high investment and a long 'pay-back period'. Without policy stability, investors will not be attracted.

Tourism: An economy bigger than the Himalayas

Many still view Nepal's tourism only through the frame of 'Hills and trekking'. However, the global tourism industry is now moving towards wellness, religious experiences, mindfulness, wildlife and experience-based tourism. Nepal can become the world's most suitable destination for this.

Today, Sri Lanka is earning more than 4 billion US dollars by attracting about 2.5 million foreign tourists annually. In Nepal, about 1.2 million international tourists come and the income is limited to about 1 billion dollars.

This raises a question – why is Nepal, rich in natural and cultural diversity, not able to benefit sufficiently from tourism? One of the main reasons for this is the weak state of the national flag carrier airline.

Thai Airways played a major role in Thailand's tourism boom. Sri Lanka Airlines currently has more than 23 aircraft, which has provided a strong foundation for tourist movement. However, Nepal Airlines has only four aircraft.

Unless Nepal Airlines is strengthened through restructuring, rebranding and professional management, the dream of bringing in a large number of tourists remains unfulfilled.

Tourism promotion is also not possible through a 'one size fits all' model. Sector-wise promotion should be done. Religious tourism, Buddha Circuit, Ramayana Circuit, Wildlife, Adventure, Wellness and Heritage tourism should be promoted with separate target markets.

Nepal has Lumbini, the birthplace of Lord Gautam Buddha, and the temple of Lord Pashupatinath, the revered god of Hindus. Similarly, there is the world's rarest one-horned rhinoceros, a unique blend of mountains, forests, culture, yoga-meditation and biodiversity. Adventure sports (paragliding, bungee jumping, rafting, hiking) can also attract youth from all over the world.

Nepal has historical and cultural ties with cities like Banaras, Lucknow and Kolkata in India. Special schemes can be introduced targeting weddings, conferences, religious visits and road trip tourism in those areas.

Nepal also has great potential in road tourism. The culture of coming to Nepal from India by private vehicle should be made easier. If a 'seamless cross-border road experience' can be created like in Europe, Nepal can become a road trip destination.

However, for that, the road infrastructure must be of good quality. Bad roads spoil the tourism experience. If Pokhara, Bhairahawa and the future Nijgadh airport can be operated under an effective PPP model, the entire economy linked to tourism can expand.

Digital Nepal: A new generation economy

The world is now moving rapidly towards AI, data, cloud services and digital exports. Although Nepal does not have a large domestic market, it has talented young manpower. There is no lack of capacity among Nepali youth, there is a lack of opportunities.

Nepal should now not only move forward with the idea of ​​'brain drain', but also 'brain gain'. An environment should be created for Nepali skilled manpower, engineers, developers and AI experts living abroad to return to Nepal to work.

Nepal has the potential to become an emerging hub in South Asia in IT, AI, gaming, data processing, cyber security and digital product development.

Data centers are an area of ​​special potential. Nepal has cheap green energy, favorable temperatures, and expanding data connectivity. If the government provides special policies, tax incentives, and infrastructure support, Nepal can become an AI-based data center destination.

It increases energy consumption, brings in dollar income, and creates high-level jobs. AI and gaming industries are growing explosively around the world. Nepal should produce skilled manpower through collaboration between universities and the private sector.

Currently, there is a policy of seat limitation in IT education institutions. It is time to rethink this. The more IT professionals, the bigger the digital ecosystem. However, for the development of the digital economy, the state itself must become digital. The ‘faceless, contactless, paperless’ governance system must be implemented in practice.

Agriculture: From subsistence to export

Nepal’s agriculture is still the basis of a large population. However, we are importing food and agricultural products worth billions of rupees. The meaning is clear – there is potential, there is no structure . Now agriculture is not just traditional farming, it should be linked to agribusiness and export economy .

Nepal can capture the world market in specialty coffee, orthodox tea, herbs, medicinal plants and high-quality agricultural products . Nepal's Himalayan coffee and orthodox tea have the potential to fetch premium prices in the international market . However, for that, an integrated strategy is required from production to branding and export .

However, for that, commercial farming should be prioritized . The current limitations and fragmented land structure have made large-scale commercial farming difficult . Land pooling, modern irrigation, high-productivity technology, agri-industry collaboration and export branding are necessary . We should move to a model of exporting by adding value, not by selling raw products .

Infrastructure: The backbone of development

No developed country in the world has become prosperous without infrastructure . Nepal still has a big gap in infrastructure and this gap is also an opportunity. However, the main problem is the lack of 'project readiness'. In Nepal, projects are announced and tenders are also held. However, land acquisition is not completed, forest clearance is not done, utilities are not removed.

This increases project delays, cost increases, and investor frustration. 'Project readiness' should be made legally and institutionally mandatory. Improvements are also needed in design and DPR construction capacity. The tendency of design changes, deviations, and additional cost increases in the middle has unnaturally increased the cost of the project.

Reforms in the Procurement Act are inevitable. A transparent and fast decision-making system should be created. A policy should be introduced to provide bonuses and incentives to construction entrepreneurs who complete work on time.

Another important issue is timely payment to construction entrepreneurs. When the government moves forward with a project without budget management, the working capital cycle of the construction company deteriorates and the overall implementation is affected.

Industrial development: The basis for employment and middle class creation

The biggest basis for long-term economic transformation is industrial development. Industry creates jobs, builds the middle class and provides stable revenue to the government. However, given the current environment, investors are hesitant to make long-term investments. The main reason is policy instability.

Nepal should convert its natural resources into economic assets. Timber, aggregate, herbs, agricultural products and mineral materials should be taken to the market as processed products, not raw. A model for generating revenue and employment can be created within environmental standards.

The 9 industrial zones announced in the past have not yet been fully developed. This is a symbol of the state's implementation weakness. Now the industrial park should not be just an announcement, but should be taken forward as a project that gives results.

If special economic zones can be developed with land, electricity, roads, tax exemptions, income tax concessions, depreciation facilities and skill development packages, industrial renaissance is possible in Nepal.

The biggest improvement now: Change in psychology

The biggest obstacle to Nepal's economic transformation is not just policy, but also thinking. There is still a strong tendency to view the private sector with suspicion. Commercial disputes are criminalized. Policies change frequently. However, social transformation is not possible without economic transformation.

The time has come to see businessmen not as criminals but as partners in creating jobs. People seek not only money but also respect. If investors do not feel safe, then big capital will never stay in the long term. That is why Nepal needs a new national psychology. That is – the acceptance that ‘making money is not a crime’.

If we don't do it now, when will we do it?

Nepal is now at a real ‘inflection point’. The prospect of political stability, improved foreign exchange reserves, falling inflation, a young generation ready to compete with the world and vast natural resources – all these are present in Nepal at the same time. However, history has taught us a harsh truth – opportunities do not wait forever.

The next two-three budget cycles will determine whether Nepal truly moves towards a $100 billion economy or spends another decade in political debate, unfinished plans and lost opportunities. Nepal now needs a national economic consensus – a kind of shared ‘economic vision’ that sets the national economic priorities for the next 15-20 years. Because ‘Economy First’ is no longer just a slogan.