The international relations activities of the new government led by the youth seem very surprising. The government has not yet presented a separate new concept to guide international relations. Although some proposals on this issue were made public through the National Commitment Document, the government itself called Nepal a 'buffer' and 'bridge', which in itself has no meaningful existence. Despite all-round denials on such a sensitive issue, the government has remained silent. What is the secret of this government, which runs like lightning in other areas, being confused in international relations?

The world is changing rapidly now. But Nepal's international relations have not been able to rise above the idea of ​​'a yam between two stones' formulated more than two and a half centuries ago. Against this backdrop, this article has tried to analyze Nepal's role in the current world by discussing the major changes that have occurred in the world.

Theoretical/Ideological Aspect

The Second World War, which ended in 1945, was won by the liberal camp involving Britain, France, and the United States, while the totalitarian and fascist factions of Germany, Japan, and Italy were defeated. Therefore, after the Second World War, the liberal principles adopted by the victorious powers dominated the world order.

The liberal world order was designed to maintain the dominance of Western countries, especially the United States. But since it was a rule-based system, it was also beneficial for countries like Nepal, which were among the last of the world powers. Since a rule-based system keeps the powerful within the circle of rules, the weak are given some relief.

A capitalist economic system based on democracy and an open market was considered the main pillars of the liberal system. Although the impact of the second pillar in Nepal is controversial, it can be assumed that the impact of the first pillar was positive for Nepal. But there is a global consensus among international relations experts that this liberal world order is now weak. There are different views on how weak it can be.

Some analysts predict that this liberal world order is on the verge of ending completely. Some analysts predict that although the liberal world order is somewhat weak, it will not end completely. Analysts in the latter camp claim that authoritarian ideology has emerged as the main challenge to the liberal world order. The examples of China, Russia, and India are brought forward to prove this.

The activities of US President Donald Trump in his second term have further strengthened this latter claim. There are many examples of President Trump not adhering to the important infrastructure of the liberal world order – the rules-based system (such as attacking the established principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity). Similarly, President Trump has prioritized national interests, abandoning the principles of the open market.

This situation shows that the liberal world order led by the US is now very weak. When powerful and prosperous countries put their interests first, it has a negative economic impact on Nepal. In addition, it can be considered that the world order is more unfavorable than before for the preservation of Nepal's existence and democracy. If the Trump trend spreads to other powerful countries, they can do anything to weak countries. Therefore, even if there is no need to panic, Nepal is definitely in a position to be cautious.

The increasing tug of war of power

To understand how the tug of war of power in the current world affects Nepal, it is necessary to understand its historical context. After World War II, there was an intense power struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union, which was not only strategic but also ideological. Although King Mahendra, the ruler of Nepal at that time, adopted a non-aligned foreign policy in principle, he seems to have leaned towards the United States in strategic terms. At that time, Nepal had some grounds for feeling insecure with India. However, when Tibet was annexed by the new Chinese communist regime in 1951, King Mahendra seems to have used America as a shield to protect Nepal from the potential threat to national existence from China and India. Therefore, even though America is only a distant neighbor, this power has strategic importance for Nepal.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990, the old power struggle ended and a new power struggle began. In the current situation, the first level of power struggle in the world is the competition between America and China. This is believed to have started with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative concept in China after Xi Jinping became president. Analysts say that the competition between the two superpowers now is different from the old Cold War. Because the United States and China are economically locked in a way that was not the case in the previous Cold War.

This issue is also confirmed by President Trump's recent visit to China. Trump, who won the presidency on the main agenda of countering China's growing global power, shook hands with the Chinese President for about 14 seconds during his last visit and praised China. The Chinese President, on the other hand, gave a clear warning about Taiwan. This has proven the claim that China's power has reached the level of the United States in practice. President Trump's visit to China has also clearly shown that the current power struggle will be of a different kind, in which the two superpowers compete fiercely with each other and cooperate strongly when they need it.

Although India is somewhat behind the level of the main competition in the global power struggle, it is also important to understand India's growing power in the world in the context of Nepal. After the economic liberalization of the 1990s and the testing of nuclear weapons (Pokharan 2) after 1998, India has become an emerging new world power. After the US put India forward to balance China's power in the Indo-Pacific, its value increased even more. Although India's strategic importance has recently declined somewhat, India is projected to become an important world power in a decade or two due to economic growth.

Such a multipolar world order has posed unprecedented challenges to Nepal. Even when there is fierce competition between these powers, Nepal is squeezed. As we have seen in the examples of BRI and MCC. Similarly, the example of India and China jointly opening the road to the Mansarovar pilgrimage from Nepal's Lipulekh also shows that Nepal is squeezed. Girija Prasad Koirala's strategic thinking seems useful in facing such challenges, so I am adding a small reference to him.

I met him in the course of a research project shortly before his death in 2010. As he said at the time, his only main goal before his death was to bring India and China together for the prosperity of Nepal. According to him, the day India and China come together to ensure prosperity in Nepal, Nepal's prosperity will begin. But it was extremely challenging to implement . Both sides assured Koirala that ‘we will get along’, but in practice, both the powers did not get along internally . That is why his last campaign was not successful . 

Koirala has passed away, but his strategy has become even more relevant now . Only if Nepal can bring the three world powers – America, China and India – together in the interest of Nepal and reach a common understanding, Nepal’s independent existence and prosperity will be ensured in the coming days . Otherwise, the battle of elephants may not be a battle of grass, but a battle of wits .

Nepal’s role in the multiplex world

Renowned professor Amitabh Acharya has put forward a useful concept of ‘multiplex’ to understand the rapidly changing world, which can be understood as a world of multi-complexity in Nepali . This concept not only encompasses the new power equation of the world, but also the various complications created by the expansion of information technology and AI . In Nepal's case, why is this concept important? It envisions the emergence of developing countries in the Global South, which, if proven correct, will open up vast doors of possibilities for countries like Nepal. What could be Nepal's role in such a 'multiplex' world?

For the past few years, the Nepalese government has placed economic interests at the center of international relations, which the current government is indicating will continue to emphasize. For an economically weak country like us, this priority cannot be called wrong, but it seems that Nepal has the potential to think beyond this. It is necessary to add a global context to explain this.

The industrial revolution and the subsequent information technology revolution brought unprecedented physical developments to Western countries, as well as countries like Japan and Australia. But the dark sides of this development - such as imperialism, slavery, colonialism, apartheid, etc. - have begun to raise questions about the ideological foundation of the blueprint for world prosperity and peace put forward by the leadership of Western countries. Again, if we look at the current state of the world, there is no assurance of peace anywhere. There is another question related to this - despite so much material development, why is there no happiness and peace in human society (even in developed Western society)?

That is why scholars in Western countries have also started raising the voice of the need for new alternative ideas and structures to guide the world. Such a world environment has opened up the possibility for Nepal to create its own unique identity by contributing to the creation of alternative ideas for the world order. If we are to compete with other countries in the world in military and economic power, Nepal will probably never reach the forefront. But if we look at the basis of ideological power, such invaluable knowledge and ideas are associated with our ancient Himalayan civilization, which makes us not behind anyone in the world.

For example, if the principle of non-violence propounded by Buddha can be adapted to the current society, a new concept of world peace can be put forward that has the potential to ensure not only external peace in the world, but also inner peace and happiness of the human mind. Our Eastern Sanatani philosophy has so many mines of such knowledge that can lead the world wandering in unrest to the path of peace. If Nepal can make good use of its unique potential and contribute to the creation of alternative ideas in the world through a new concept of peace, then Nepal's respect will increase worldwide. How difficult would it be for a country that is respected by the world to make economic progress?

There is also an unprecedented coincidence in Nepal's concept of international relations to envision a country that will give a new idea of ​​peace to such a world. The youth uprisings spreading in the South have indicated that a new alternative trend will also be born amidst the competition between the above-mentioned liberal and authoritarian ideological trends in the world. Nepal is currently leading such a potential alternative trend in the world, even though it is still in its infancy. To this day, Nepal is the only country where a youth uprising has succeeded and an alternative youth force has come to power. If this alternative youth force can truly set an example of progressive alternative politics, Nepal will have an important internal basis to provide alternative ideas for the world order.