Why does a new power emerge?

Nepali voters who wanted a new election will now see the results of their own choices. Will that result be the beginning of a hopeful new chapter or another cycle of despair? That will be determined by the way the new voters work.

Falgun 25, 2082

Rajaram Gautam

Why does a new power emerge?

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We Nepalis have a common character, the faster we get discouraged, the sooner we get excited. The general election, 2082, has lifted a large section of citizens from the land of despair and dissatisfaction and excited them. With the unprecedented victory of the National Independent Party (NIPP) in this election, how quickly hope and expectation have started to grow in this section, they have started to indulge in the arbitrary fantasy of 'Ram Rajya'.  

At this time, the NIPP has become the 'carrier of change' of Nepali society. People are saying that the voters have carried out a 'silent vote revolution' for 'change'. But, is this a silent vote revolution or the emotional impulse of a sad society that is always looking for a hero? Or is it a wave of change in favor of the new or a wave of extreme repulsion towards the old? These questions may not be acceptable when the competition for the glory of the new leaders is going on. However, the truth is that the unprecedented mandate seen in favor of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) will be justified when this party can embrace the issue of change through action, not slogans.

It will take a few more days for the final results of the election to come. According to the vote count so far, this party is sure to get a clear and strong majority. If the same is true, when the final count reaches the same level, there is a possibility of getting two-thirds of the votes or getting close to it. In other words, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has emerged as the most powerful party, surpassing the big and historical Congress and the Communists.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is a party born in Asad 2079. This party, which entered the general elections within 6 months of its birth, had already emerged as the fourth party in parliament at that time. The leap made by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) now is an extension of that. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is mainly a product of the inaction and incompetence of the old political parties. Why did Nepali public opinion unite in favor of this party? Why did the big parties with organizations and backgrounds shrink to the point of being marginalized in the electoral competition? And, why did the young party, which is three and a half years old, become their choice? Will the infant Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) be able to truly live up to the hopes and expectations of the people? What challenges and opportunities does this party face now? The powerful presence of the RSS in the current political scenario has raised many such questions. This analysis will focus on these questions. On the one hand, there is the RSS formed by Ravi, in which he has organizational dominance. On the other hand, the RSS is on a frenzy of unprecedented victories due to the Balen craze. In this situation, how the Ravi-Balen relationship will continue will affect many other parties. This is not the first time that the search for an alternative power has taken place in Nepali politics. Such a search has been happening with every political change. Every time there is a political change, the people are excited. Changes also raise hopes and expectations in the lives of the common people. When those expectations are not felt to be fulfilled, then it becomes a ground for dissatisfaction and disappointment. The search for new and alternative political forces begins on that ground. The political developments and changes since 2007 are an example of this. After 2007, the Congress emerged as a carrier of change. After the restoration of democracy in 2046, the leftists were also seen as carriers of change along with the Congress. After the second people's movement in 2063, the Maoists emerged from a peaceful transition through violent politics. Now, there is a wave in favor of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) as an alternative to those transformative parties.

After the major political changes of 2046 or 2063 BS, the general public had four main expectations from the Congress-Communists who were in the 'driving seat' of power. First, corruption control and good governance. Second, economic, educational and physical development. Third, easy and accessible service flow. Fourth, its institutional development along with the party's internal democracy.

Despite getting the opportunity to come to power repeatedly, the Congress-Communists could not even pass these expectations, let alone succeed. Instead, they increased corruption, fostered a culture of (bad) division of power over merit and merit, and encouraged factionalism rather than healthy competition within the party. In essence, as they became power- and position-oriented, the perception that the Congress-Communists were unable to carry the cause of change was firmly established among the general public. Lately, the Congress had started the practice of leadership succession through rebellion. However, the people did not believe that the Congress's reforms had changed.

When the transformative forces are satisfied with the status quo, a new force emerges. Former Prime Minister Dr. Baburam Bhattarai had said in 2070 that 'Nepali society has entered a new phase. Now, to lead it, the parties must be able to change their organization, leadership and working style. If that cannot be done, a new force will emerge.'

Bhattarai abandoned the Maoists and tried to form a 'new force'. Others, under various names such as the Vibeksheel Party, Sajha Party, Vibeksheel-Sajha Party, etc., had also taken the initiative to form a new and alternative force. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is the latest link in those efforts. This party did not emerge on the basis of any political struggle or movement. The main foundation of this is the growing disappointment, anger and distrust among the people towards the old parties. The political ambitions of the once famous television journalist Ravi Lamichhane are also mixed in with it.

When independent candidates such as Balendra Shah, Hark Sampang and others started winning the mayoral elections in the 2079 BS local level elections, the political ambitions growing within Ravi intensified. He hurriedly announced the establishment of the party and went to the elections. He understood that going into politics with a 'popular new face' could create enough ground for anger and disappointment to build a new force. Although many criticized him as an 'apolitical wave', Ravi gave birth to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) on the basis of the widespread disappointment and anger in the society. After the elections, this party became not only the fourth largest party in parliament with 21 seats, but also a player in coalition power politics.

The rise of the RSS was surprising and promising. The party's success in electoral politics within 6 months of its establishment attracted the public. The creative role played by the party's MPs in parliament also increased its attraction. However, it could not sustain that attraction and enthusiasm for long. It began to be surrounded by controversies and questions. The main reason for this was Ravi's controversial image. He is a character who is under question in all legal, social, moral, and economic aspects. His MP post was revoked for not completing the legal process to regain Nepali citizenship after renouncing his American citizenship. He has been seriously accused of passport misuse and embezzlement of cooperative funds. The legal settlement of which has not been reached. The

The RSP was also criticized for showing excessive greed for power in participating in coalition governments. The party's image became limited around Ravi. The party's only 'face value' depended entirely on him. The message that the party was no different from the old parties was conveyed by the fact that it was not committed to the party and was looking for opportunities. Although it was said that internal democracy would be practiced differently, it could not be implemented in practice. Cases of financial opacity came to light. The RSVP, which had been declining in a short time due to many such reasons, was further criticized when the time of the Gen-G movement arrived. Especially when Ravi's supporters illegally took advantage of the chaos that had increased in the name of the Gen-G movement and released him from jail, it drew him into further controversy. The Gen-Gs portrayed him as a 'villain'. Ravi, who was heavily criticized and ostracized by the Gen-Gs, returned to jail again.

Then came the terrible 'twist'. Ravi, who was considered a 'villain' in the eyes of the Gen-Gs, and Balen Shah, the 'icon' of the Gen-G agitators, united. There have been many speculations about this dramatic unity. What is the role of the visible/invisible in this, what is the difference? It will become clear with time. However, the unity of these two gave the declining Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) new energy. Balen, who had become very popular, got the party's roof, while the RSS got the 'Balen card'. Most analysts believe that one of the main reasons behind the unprecedented victory of the RSS is the 'Balen card'. When the RSS proposed Balen as the future Prime Minister, it not only stirred the youth, but also created a 'wave' in Madhesh, where there are many voters. Voters recognized Balen and the election symbol Ghanti more than the RSS and chose them. As a result, in the next few days, 35-year-old Balen is going to become the new Prime Minister of the country.

Balen, who entered national politics before completing his term as mayor of Kathmandu, is set to receive a rare promotion. There are many examples of mayors becoming prime ministers in many countries around the world. Nepal is setting such an example for the first time. He will be the youngest elected prime minister in terms of age.

What kind of prime minister will Balen be when he takes the reins of the country's governance? What will be his challenges and opportunities? There is great interest in the public. Nepali society knows Balen very little. The youth know him as a rapper. Many others as the mayor of Kathmandu. How successful was Balen as the mayor of Kathmandu or not? There has not been much objective research and analysis of this. Some of his well-wishers never tire of praising him, saying that he changed the face of Kathmandu. Critics criticize him as a 'fugitive' who has abandoned his responsibilities. Similarly, some know him as a mayor with a clean image who has not been involved in corruption. However, there are also examples of him having to go to the authorities and provide clarification after complaints were received regarding some of his decisions and actions, so others question him. It is generally understood that Balen, who is prone to impulses and excitement, has a tendency to act in a hurry. He does not hesitate to take risks. However, there are also those who say that he has not been able to institutionalize good governance in his metropolitan work.

Balen, who entered national politics before completing his term as mayor of Kathmandu, is set to receive a rare promotion. There are many examples of mayors becoming prime ministers in many countries of the world. Nepal is creating such an example for the first time. He will also be the youngest elected prime minister in terms of age.

There is also public interest in Balen's personality. For example, Balen, who is seen in road shows and occasionally posts statuses that cause waves on social media, seems mysterious. He prefers to communicate very little. Will the presentation and working style of the Balen that Nepali society knows now and the Balen who sits in the Prime Minister's chair be different? Will he continue to be as mysterious a character as he is now after becoming Prime Minister? The role he is taking on will require many regular political/diplomatic dialogues. People have not forgotten that he performed immature 'stunts' while he was mayor, without considering geopolitics and diplomatic sensitivities. How will he 'deal' with diplomacy and geopolitical issues from the Prime Minister's chair? That too has become a matter of public interest and concern. In essence, Balen, who became a symbol of anger against the establishment, has become an establishment himself after overwhelming public approval. As much as he has challenges, history has also given him rare opportunities. Against this backdrop, Balen has emerged as the new hope for good governance in the country. Balen has gained public approval by defeating former Prime Minister KP Oli by a huge margin from his home district. His craze has reached its peak in the general Nepali circle. Balen, who is climbing the peak of popularity, also faces mountains of challenges. The first step in the challenge will be the internal balance of power within the party and its management. On one hand, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) formed by Ravi, in which he has organizational dominance. On the other hand, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is on a frenzy of unprecedented victories due to the Balen craze. In this situation, how the Ravi-Balen relationship will continue will affect many other parties. Of course, Ravi has clearly stated that he will lead the party and Balen will lead the government. However, mutual understanding and cooperation on strategic issues, from keeping the party in the government's decision-making to managing new MPs, will be challenging.

Henry Louis Mencken, an American journalist of the twentieth century, had said, ‘In a democracy, the people get what they want. And they suffer the consequences themselves.’ Nepali voters who wanted Balen will now see the results of their own choice. Will that outcome be the beginning of a hopeful new chapter or another cycle of despair? That will be decided by the working style of the Balen themselves.

@Rajaramgautam

Rajaram

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